Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon still finds himself mired in a timeshare with Aaron Jones. On the heels of a strong finish to last season, is this the year Dillon finally flips the backfield in his favor? What is Dillon’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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AJ Dillon’s Fantasy Outlook
It feels like Dillon has been in the NFL a lot longer than a mere three seasons. Now entering the final year of his rookie deal, Dillon is undoubtedly anxious to prove he deserves a lucrative second contract.
Last season, Dillon was one of my top targets in fantasy drafts. With Jones getting older, I expected Dillon to take a step forward, leading to the Packers moving on from Jones after the season.
After Week 1, it looked exactly like that would happen. Dillon popped off for 20.1 PPR fantasy points. I was feeling great about my prediction and my decision to prioritize Dillon in fantasy drafts.
For the next 10 consecutive weeks, Dillon was a major disappointment. He failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in any of them. He was the clear goal-line back, yet failed to score a single touchdown over that span. It was a truly spectacular display of futility from a fantasy perspective.
Over the first four weeks, Dillon was consistently playing over 50% of the snaps. Eventually, the Packers just had enough of his underperformance. He saw his snap share dip well below 50%, even getting as low as 30% in some games.
Then, a switch flipped once again. Beginning in Week 12, Dillon suddenly resembled the guy I was targeting everywhere in fantasy drafts.
From Weeks 12-17, the Packers had five games. Dillon scored a touchdown in all of them, including two in Week 15. He had two 20-point efforts and averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game over that span. Those are RB1 numbers.
Yes, Dillon did it on the back of scoring touchdowns. But that was the theory behind being in on Dillon last season anyway. He was going to dominate goal-line carries on a team that scores a lot of touchdowns.
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Looking back on the 2022 season, the process was correct. Dillon was, in fact, the clear goal-line back, and it wasn’t particularly close. He saw 10 carries inside the 5-yard line against Jones’ three. Even if you back it up to the 10-yard line, Dillon had 16 carries against Jones’ nine.
Heading into the 2023 season, the process behind Dillon is again his touchdown upside. He’s unlikely to improve upon his 8.9% target share. However, he could be a bit more efficient, especially with Jordan Love being more mobile than Aaron Rodgers.
On the other hand, the Packers may not score as many touchdowns with Love. However, they only scored 39 TDs as a team last season. For comparison’s sake, they scored 52 the previous season. Even if this offense is worse in terms of scoring, it isn’t likely to be by any meaningful amount.
All of this is to say Dillon’s floor is likely the 9.9 ppg he averaged over the course of last season. His ceiling is what we saw in Week 1 and from Weeks 12-17 extrapolated over a full year. Flipping this backfield on a soon-to-be 29-year-old Jones remains in the cards.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Dillon at His ADP?
Entering the 2023 season, not much has changed in terms of Dillon’s projected role and his chances of overtaking Jones in terms of at least carries. Yet, Dillon’s ADP is RB32, No. 192 overall. He is going even later than he was last season.
After how last year played out, I’m certainly not as bullish as I was. However, Dillon is almost certainly being drafted at his floor. He should be able to manage a minimum of 10 ppg this season. Last year, the RB33 averaged 10 ppg.
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Dillon is currently my RB31, which is right in line with consensus. My projections have him at 195 carries, 817 rushing yards, and 8.5 rushing touchdowns on the ground, with 32 receptions, 251 receiving yards, and 1.7 receiving touchdowns through the air. That comes out to 11.9 ppg.
Given that Dillon maintains top-24 upside (and really top-18 upside if Love is better than expected), I will once again target Dillon in fantasy drafts.
