As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Kyle Pitts’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
When they selected Pitts with the No. 4 overall draft pick in 2021, the Falcons believed they were securing a future all-time great — a tight end who doubled as one of the top receiver prospects of the past decade. A true unicorn at his position, Pitts could anchor this franchise’s passing attack for years.
That he was only 20 years old added to the excitement. With many seasons of development ahead of him, how good could he become?
Two campaigns into his career, there are more questions than answers. Fortunately, Pitts looks the part. Unfortunately, he landed on a team that might not have the ability to utilize him effectively.
Last year, Atlanta was 5-5 with Pitts on the field. But a season-ending injury was immediately followed by four consecutive defeats by a touchdown or less. This unlikely playoff contender might have pushed for the NFC South title if Pitts had remained healthy.
Of course, that’s only part of the story. The Falcons led the league in rushing attempts, resulting in a sterling 4.9 yards per carry. This was their bread and butter. Not Pitts. Not standout rookie Drake London. Instead, rookie fifth-rounder Tyler Allgeier, the 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson, and former undrafted free agent Caleb Huntley each hit 4.8+ ypc. It was a master class in superior running.
And it also left its receivers out in the cold from a fantasy perspective. For Pitts, it was a disastrous campaign, as he and QB Marcus Mariota couldn’t stay on the same page, leading to an anemic 47.5% catch rate for Pitts, who averaged less than three receptions per game.
Questions remain under center, with Desmond Ridder getting the ball to start the season, and Taylor Heinicke looming if Ridder falters. And equally notably, the Falcons used the No. 8 overall pick in this year’s draft on phenom Bijan Robinson.
With Allgeier and Patterson headed toward supporting roles, Robinson is the new face of this run-friendly offense. Realistically, the Falcons could once again lead the NFL in carries. It might mark their best chance at sneaking into the postseason.
However, it once again could be painful for Pitts’ fantasy value, which hinges on volume. And with Mack Hollins now in town, it’s fair to wonder if Ridder can adequately feed more than one of his “big three” receivers per game.
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For Pitts to hit 1,000+ yards, he’ll probably need at least 100 targets or 6+ per game. Depending on the rate of Ridder’s development, Pitts might need seven or eight targets per game.
And with Robinson on the field (backed by Allgeier and Patterson), it’s unlikely that Ridder will be throwing near the goal line. Inside the 10-yard line last season, Pitts had as many targets as teammate MyCole Pruitt (four). Allgier, Patterson, and Huntley averaged 11 touches apiece.
Granted, Pitts missed seven games. But the trend line is clear. To break the trend, the Falcons have to commit to a more robust passing attack. Until/unless there’s a need, Pitts will likely remain one of the most underutilized receivers in the league.
Should You Draft Kyle Pitts This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists currently lists Pitts with an ADP of TE5. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at TE5 as well. We might hear a lot of buzz about the Falcons wanting to “get Pitts more involved” or “get their star tight end going,” etc. But it’s all talk barring a schematic shift.
If Ridder transforms into a top-16 passing QB, that could mark such a shift. Or if Heinicke takes over and plays to his potential. Or if the backfield is decimated by injuries, forcing Atlanta to become more pass-heavy.
But these are what-ifs. The most logical path consists of Pitts hitting roughly a 55-875-3 receiving line. For nearly every other tight end, that would be a huge year. But for this former No. 4 overall pick, it would be another underwhelming fantasy output that probably would keep him outside the top five at his position.
As a result, Pitts’ market value — while not ambitious — doesn’t leave much room for error/injuries. His solid floor should keep him in the top 10. But his situation with the Falcons makes him a longshot to hit the top four. He’s barely draftable at a TE7 value and is a small fade at TE5.
