As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Philadelphia Eagles RB Rashaad Penny’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Rashaad Penny’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Last year, two running backs had more regular-season carries than Penny has had in his five-year career. That sums up the fantasy downside of this former first-round pick — a guy who was supposed to lead the Seahawks’ backfield for several years.
Penny has missed 40 of a possible 82 regular-season contests. A broken finger, torn ACL, calf injury, broken leg, and pulled hamstrings have marred what might have been — and what might still become — an impressive career.
How impressive. That’s the thing about Penny. Rarely has someone so injury-prone been so dominant when healthy. His career 5.7 yards per carry are off the charts, aided by a similarly phenomenal 2.7 yards after contact and one broken tackle per 14.0 carries.
Yet, Penny is one of those players whose on-the-field exploits don’t entirely translate to fantasy. His limitations in the passing game make him volume- and TD-dependent. When he’s healthy and rolling, Penny’s a weekly fantasy starter. But again, “when he’s healthy” is the key.
If he can make it through 14+ games this year, Penny could be another Nick Chubb. That’s his ceiling, albeit not a realistic one. Without consistent work through the air, he’ll need to get more involved near the goal line.
It’s notable that seven of Penny’s 14 career scores have come from 30+ yards away. Compare that to Miles Sanders, whose last 13 TDs have come inside the red zone, with nine coming from inside the 5.
At one point this offseason, it appeared that Penny would be replacing Sanders as the Eagles’ new two-down back. Add more goal-line work, and you’re looking at a merely somewhat risky weekly fantasy starter in that offense. Not bad for a guy with Penny’s spotty history.
Yet, all that changed when Philly acquired D’Andre Swift. It was an all-in move for a franchise that’s knocking on the door of a Super Bowl title. Swift gives the Eagles much-needed insurance if Penny gets hurt (again). It also should take pressure off Penny even when healthy, as those two could each pick up 10-12 touches a game, with Kenneth Gainwell and/or Boston Scott filling in.
The Eagles are playing the long game this season. They need a healthy core for a deep playoff run. It should be assumed that they’ll play things relatively safe with their two fragile lead running backs. Twenty-plus-touch performances for Penny seem out of the question. He was signed to help them win it all, not just win Week 5.
As a result, Penny’s outlook remains as murky as ever. An extraordinary talent, but also someone who will be utilized with caution. He possesses a vast range of outcomes, but on a per-game basis, Penny remains the same volume- and TD-dependent RB he’s always been, with above-average odds of an in-game injury that could send fantasy managers reeling.
Should You Draft Rashaad Penny This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Penny with an ADP of RB34. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him in the RB41 spot. On the one hand, this all makes sense. He’s a great RB with huge injury risks in a crowded backfield. One cannot be bullish about such a player.
On the other hand, Penny’s value is tied directly to manager strategy. On a weekly basis, he’s a good bet to finish in the top 40 far more often than not, and it could be argued that weekly top-28 production is doable — especially if he earns Sanders-level goal-line touches.
Rashaad Penny's patience here is fun to watch as he works his way north. pic.twitter.com/D9WJlTM3EL
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice)
So while he might finish the season around the RB35-RB40 range, Penny should be meaningfully better when active. There’s clear value here for managers who want to lock in production out of the gate, with the understanding that he might not make it to the fantasy playoffs.
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Essentially, if Penny gives you eight games as a top-28 RB, is he worth snagging at the RB36 spot? Is he someone you’ll want to reach for a round early?
It comes down not so much to risk tolerance, but to whether you adopt more of a zero-RB draft approach that locks in incredible QB, WR, and TE talent. In such a scenario, adding Penny later in the draft can give you a potential weekly starter at a cheap price, buying you time to stabilize your backfield through waivers and trades if/when he gets hurt.
