DeVonta Smith has always been a wide receiver talented enough to post bigger numbers than he has. He just couldn’t reach his true potential while competing for targets with A.J. Brown. With Brown shipped off to New England, the stage is set for Smith to have the best season of his career. Saddled with an increased price tag, should fantasy managers be willing to pay it?
Should You Draft DeVonta Smith in Fantasy Football?
It wasn’t that long ago that Smith first entered the NFL with massive questions about whether he could even play given his size. There was a time when there simply weren’t any wide receivers who weighed 170 lbs or less, let alone successful ones. After five seasons, those concerns have been put to rest.
Smith has been quite durable throughout his career, missing a total of four games due to injury, all of which came in the 2023 season. That means in four out of his five seasons, he’s played every game.
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After a strong rookie season, albeit one that wasn’t particularly effective in fantasy, Smith broke out as a sophomore, posting 15.0 fantasy points per game. He was pretty much the same guy each of the next two seasons (14.2 and 15.3 PPG) before his production cratered in 2025 at just 11.9 PPG. To be fair, the entire Eagles offense fell apart under Kevin Patullo’s watch.
Nevertheless, Smith still almost reached 2.0 yards per route run, finishing at 1.98. He also earned a 24.3% target share while taking a backseat to Brown in the passing game. His 28.2% first-read target share ranked just 22nd compared to Brown’s seventh-ranked 36.6%. That is a glimpse into what we can expect to see with Smith in the lead role.
While we’ve yet to see Smith take that true leap forward into perennial WR1 territory, he’s shown flashes, both in the rare instances where the team decided to feature him ahead of Brown and, of course, in games Brown missed.
Since 2022, here are Smith’s splits with and without Brown:
- With Brown: 13.8 PPG
- Without Brown: 16.2 PPG
Now that Brown is permanently gone, are we getting the WR1 version of Smith for the next couple of years? Can Jalen Hurts rebound? Will the volume be enough on one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league?
Smith’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
It is simultaneously refreshing and frustrating to see the fantasy football community as a whole continue to get smarter each year. The days of spotting breakouts in advance and benefiting are gone. When an ascent from a player is likely, it’s almost always baked into his price to at least some degree.
Nothing about Smith’s production thus far suggests he deserves a WR14 price tag. That’s higher than he’s ever finished. Plus, we don’t want to be drafting players near their ceiling. We want to be drafting players closer to their floor (or at least near the midpoint between the two). Well, we still might be doing that with Smith.
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His floor is definitely quite a bit lower than his ADP. It would not be a total shock if Smith finished as a low WR2. However, that should be considered a more unlikely outcome. The reality is a top-five ceiling does exist, and we should be very excited about it.
At worst, we should get a version of Smith we saw from 2022-24. If that’s all we get, Smith will be a small miss at his ADP. If we get that version of Smith with the WR1 treatment, that should at least get us to par value. But the really exciting part is what if it all comes together? What if Smith takes a step forward as a player, Hurts rebounds as a passer, and the offense improves across the board? An 18 PPG season is in Smith’s range of outcomes, and it’s more likely than you think.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the paradigm for what to do with a wide receiver in fantasy. Obviously, a JSN-like breakout doesn’t happen every year. But the idea is the same: get first-round caliber production from a player who doesn’t go in the first round. Smith is going right around where JSN went last season. He doesn’t have quite the upside as 2025 JSN, but Smith is very much the type of WR fantasy managers want to target in drafts.
Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings
- Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
- Puka Nacua | LAR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- Drake London | ATL
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- George Pickens | DAL
- Chris Olave | NO
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Zay Flowers | BAL
- Jaylen Waddle | DEN
- Tee Higgins | CIN
- DeVonta Smith | PHI
- Ladd McConkey | LAC
- Terry McLaurin | WAS
- Emeka Egbuka | TB
- Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
- Garrett Wilson | NYJ
- Jameson Williams | DET
- Christian Watson | GB
- Luther Burden III | CHI
- Rome Odunze | CHI
- Parker Washington | JAX
- Carnell Tate | TEN
- DJ Moore | BUF
- Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
- Davante Adams | LAR
- Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
- Quentin Johnston | LAC
- Mike Evans | SF
- Stefon Diggs | WAS
- Michael Wilson | ARI
- DK Metcalf | PIT
- Jakobi Meyers | JAX
- Josh Downs | IND
- Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
- Jayden Reed | GB
- Courtland Sutton | DEN
- Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
- Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
- Alec Pierce | IND
- Makai Lemon | PHI
- Jordan Addison | MIN
- De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
- Khalil Shakir | BUF
- Romeo Doubs | NE
