Sean Payton loves his split backfields. Last season, the Denver Broncos utilized a medley of running backs, making it difficult for any one of them to reach their true fantasy football potential. This season, Jonah Coleman joins a backfield led by J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. Undoubtedly, is the RB3 to start the rookie worth an investment in fantasy drafts?
Should You Draft Jonah Coleman in Fantasy Football?
Last season, Denver traded up to overdraft a projected Day 3 running back in Harvey. Then, they pushed free agent signee Dobbins into the RB1 role, where it truly was a starter/backup situation. Dobbins served in that role until his Week 10 season-ending foot injury.
After Dobbins went down, Harvey started, but he also split time with Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie. Harvey’s snap share did increase, but he was never a three-down back.
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Despite bringing back Dobbins and Harvey obviously returning, the Broncos drafted Coleman in the early part of the fourth round. Early reports out of OTAs were that Coleman could have an immediate role, but I am highly skeptical. However, that doesn’t mean he’s irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
Since entering the league in 2020, Dobbins has never played a full season. He was a seldom-used backup in 2020. As a result, he remained healthy, playing in 15 games. Since then, here are Dobbins’ games played by season:
- 2021: 0
- 2022: 8
- 2023: 1
- 2024: 13
- 2025: 10
99% of the time, I do not believe we can predict injury, and it shouldn’t factor into fantasy analysis. Football is a violent game. Anyone can get hurt. But we have six years of evidence suggesting Dobbins is a far greater-than-average injury risk.
Coleman is not a special player by any means. He’s not elite at anything, but he’s pretty good at everything.
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At 220 pounds, he has the size to handle the dirty work between the tackles and profiles as a strong goal-line option. Coleman is also a sneaky good pass catcher. He saw a 9.7% target share during his final season at Washington.
Coleman’s skill set makes him uniquely suited to serve as the handcuff for both Dobbins and Harvey. Whereas in most backfields, each role has its own backup, Coleman could step in for an injured Dobbins or Harvey and do what each of them is currently asked to do.
We should always have a healthy dose of skepticism about whether any Day 3 rookies will be used, but given Dobbins’ injury history plus Coleman’s size, it’s not ridiculous to think he may take some short-yardage and goal-line work. Coleman is also a capable receiver, which ensures Dobbins has no path to a passing-down role even if Harvey were to get hurt.
Harvey would obviously benefit from a Dobbins injury as well. We saw it last season. But if Payton viewed Harvey as a three-down back, he would deploy Harvey as such. He has not and will not.
I believe Harvey is locked into his role. That means if Dobbins gets hurt again, Harvey’s usage mostly stays the same. He’d still start, but Coleman would be the favorite to lead the team in carries, as well as handle goal-line work.
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Similarly, if Harvey went down, it certainly isn’t going to be Dobbins playing more passing downs. Last season, Dobbins saw a 4.3% target share. Throughout his career, he’s never been a prolific receiver. We can debate the merits of his lack of passing game usage and whether it’s a skill issue or a coaching decision issue all we want.
The reality is, it doesn’t matter. We can confidently project Dobbins for a very minimal passing game role. There is a path for Coleman here.
Coleman’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
The biggest issue facing Coleman is the lack of standalone value. He is going to be the RB3. No NFL team’s RB3 can have standalone fantasy value. It’s just not possible. That means anyone who drafts Coleman has to sit on him until something changes.
In August, that’s still a worthwhile pick to make. However, Coleman’s RB53 ADP is quite high for a real-life RB3. Yes, it helps that he’s on a good offense behind an injury-prone starter, but there’s no real path to a third-down role. There are several other pure handcuffs going behind Coleman who are one injury away from being the starter.
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Ultimately, I prefer the backs with a clearer path to volume. That’s why Coleman is my RB52.
He will likely be taken in most fantasy drafts. He will also likely be one of the first players dropped in September for the hot waiver wire adds. Fantasy managers will need to let someone go from their bench, and the Broncos’ RB3, playing behind two healthy (at the time) incumbents, will be the first option.
Preseason Fantasy RB Rankings
- Bijan Robinson | ATL
- Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
- James Cook III | BUF
- Jonathan Taylor | IND
- Ashton Jeanty | LV
- Christian McCaffrey | SF
- Saquon Barkley | PHI
- Chase Brown | CIN
- De’Von Achane | MIA
- Derrick Henry | BAL
- Kenneth Walker III | KC
- Jeremiyah Love | ARI
- Omarion Hampton | LAC
- Javonte Williams | DAL
- Breece Hall | NYJ
- Kyren Williams | LAR
- D’Andre Swift | CHI
- Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
- Josh Jacobs | GB
- Cam Skattebo | NYG
- David Montgomery | HOU
- Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
- TreVeyon Henderson | NE
- Quinshon Judkins | CLE
- Jaylen Warren | PIT
- Bucky Irving | TB
- Jadarian Price | SEA
- Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
- Chuba Hubbard | CAR
- Kenny Gainwell | TB
- Tony Pollard | TEN
- Jordan Mason | MIN
- Rico Dowdle | PIT
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
- Blake Corum | LAR
- RJ Harvey | DEN
- Kyle Monangai | CHI
- Rachaad White | WAS
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
- Zach Charbonnet | SEA
- Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
- Jonathon Brooks | CAR
- J.K. Dobbins | DEN
- Tyler Allgeier | ARI
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
- Isiah Pacheco | DET
- Woody Marks | HOU
- Tyjae Spears | TEN
- Nick Singleton | TEN
- Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL
