Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Projection 2026: Should You Draft the Colts RB in Round 1?

Jonathan Taylor was on pace for one of the greatest fantasy football seasons of all time for about half the season. Then, the wheels fell off the entire Indianapolis Colts offense, taking Taylor down with it. After being scarred by under-performance when it mattered most, can fantasy managers trust Taylor as a first-round pick in 2026 drafts?

Should You Draft Colts RB Jonathan Taylor in Fantasy Football?

Anyone who rostered Taylor last season knows it was a tale of two halves. He averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game for the season, but he was never actually giving fantasy managers that level of weekly output. He was way better and then way worse.

• Weeks 1-10: 27.4 PPG
• Weeks 12-18: 12.6 PPG

Taylor’s fall off really had little to do with the player himself. It can be directly tied to the collapse of the Colts’ offense, which was due to Daniel Jones’ injuries.

In that Week 12 game, Jones sustained a hairline fracture to his fibula. He played through it but was noticeably less effective in the weeks that followed.

Then, in Week 14, Jones tore his Achilles, resulting in Taylor playing out the rest of the season with Riley Leonard and a 44-year-old who hadn’t played football in five years, Philip Rivers. Unsurprisingly, the offense’s scoring potential took a hit.

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Taylor’s crowning achievement remains his overall RB1 finish in 2021. It’s actually scary how similar his numbers were that year to last season.

• 2021: 322 carries for 1,811 yards, 40 receptions for 360 yards, 20 total TDs
• 2025: 232 carries for 1,585 yards, 46 receptions for 378 yards, 20 total TDs

We now have two instances of Taylor averaging at least 21 PPG. Last season, we had an extended stretch of him posting truly legendary numbers. That is proof of concept.

The previous concern with Taylor’s upside was the lack of receiving work. Viewed more as a two-down back, Taylor lacked the potential of guys like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs because he didn’t have the same receiving chops, and the fear was he’d come off the field on passing downs as he had in the past.

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Last season, Taylor was used as a true three-down back. He played 89% of the snaps, which led the league. His 84% opportunity share was second only to Ashton Jeanty by less than a full percentage point. JT was a true throwback to the 2000s days when lead backs only came off the field when they were tired.

Taylor saw a 10.4% target share, which is plenty sufficient to bolster his floor, while allowing his touchdown prowess to raise his ceiling. He was efficient on a per-touch basis, elite at making defenders miss, and served as his team’s primary option on offense whenever possible. When the Colts get to the goal line, the ball is going to Taylor.

Taylor’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value

The more I think about it, the more Taylor deserves to be the clearly RB3 behind Robinson and Gibbs. Once the “big five” of Robinson, Gibbs, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are off the board, the field opens up a bit. At running back, Christian McCaffrey is always a viable option.

You could also take one of the next group of wide receivers featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb. But the more I think about it, the more Taylor looks like the correct pick.

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For as long as fantasy football has existed, the most valuable asset has always been the elite running back. That’s become even more pronounced in the modern era as almost every team uses multiple backs, with true three-down backs from the 90s and 00s being a thing of the past. Taylor is one of the select few who is that type of back.

With Taylor, fantasy managers are getting an elite talent on a good offense who never comes off the field. Taylor stays in on third downs and during the hurry-up offense. He handles all of the goal line work. The only downside is what we saw last season in that he’s tied to the quality of his offense…but isn’t everyone?

Look at what happened to Saquon Barkley and Jefferson. Jeanty’s underlying metrics were very good, but he’s largely viewed as a disappointment (and he was) because the Raiders’ offense was so bad. Every player’s fantasy potential rises and falls with the overall caliber of his team. That’s not unique to Taylor.

By all accounts, Jones should be ready for Week 1. While he may not be back to his pre-injury self until later in the season, if at all, even a slightly hesitant Jones is better than what the Colts were putting out there last season after he went down.

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Taylor checks in essentially tied for the RB3 spot in our consensus rankings. Since they are the average of our two fantasy analysts, the system has to break ties somehow. Taylor may be listed as RB6, but the average of his ranking is the same as the three guys above him.

I’ve got Taylor RB3, and while I would take St. Brown at No. 6 overall, once we get to No. 7, it’s time to call JT’s name.

Preseason Fantasy RB Rankings

1. Bijan Robinson | ATL
2. Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
3. James Cook III | BUF
4. Jonathan Taylor | IND
5. Ashton Jeanty | LV
6. Christian McCaffrey | SF
7. Saquon Barkley | PHI
8. Chase Brown | CIN
9. De’Von Achane | MIA
10. Derrick Henry | BAL
11. Kenneth Walker III | KC
12. Jeremiyah Love | ARI
13. Omarion Hampton | LAC
14. Javonte Williams | DAL
15. Breece Hall | NYJ
16. Kyren Williams | LAR
17. D’Andre Swift | CHI
18. Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
19. Josh Jacobs | GB
20. Cam Skattebo | NYG
21. David Montgomery | HOU
22. Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
23. TreVeyon Henderson | NE
24. Quinshon Judkins | CLE
25. Jaylen Warren | PIT
26. Bucky Irving | TB
27. Jadarian Price | SEA
28. Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
29. Chuba Hubbard | CAR
30. Kenny Gainwell | TB
31. Tony Pollard | TEN
32. Jordan Mason | MIN
33. Rico Dowdle | PIT
34. Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
35. Blake Corum | LAR
36. RJ Harvey | DEN
37. Kyle Monangai | CHI
38. Rachaad White | WAS
39. Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
40. Zach Charbonnet | SEA
41. Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
42. Jonathon Brooks | CAR
43. J.K. Dobbins | DEN
44. Tyler Allgeier | ARI
45. Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
46. Isiah Pacheco | DET
47. Woody Marks | HOU
48. Tyjae Spears | TEN
49. Nick Singleton | TEN
50. Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL