The most exciting parts of the 2026 NFL offseason have come to an end with free agency, the NFL Draft, and the 2026 schedule release in the rearview mirror. With training camp still a couple of months away, now is the time to take stock of all 32 teams and their chances of making the postseason.
Our power rankings are based on last season’s PR Impact metric, with adjustments made for free agency, coaching changes, draft picks, and current injury situations. Our power rankings were then used alongside the new schedule and PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor to produce predictions for a range of outcomes via the Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
The FPM simulates the season 100,000 times and provides average win-loss records as well as the number of simulations in which a team wins the division and makes the playoffs. We also get data on how often that team earns which seed and the number of simulations in which they are selecting at different points in the 2027 NFL Draft. Also, our FPM records the 10th and 90th percentiles for wins and how often the team makes the playoffs or wins the division at those percentiles. This shows the expected floor and ceiling outputs for the 32 teams based on our current expectations for their performances in the 2026 season.
1) Seattle Seahawks
- Projected 2026 Record: 10.2-6.8
- Division Win Percentage: 36.3%
- Playoff Percentage: 69.8%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 1.9%
The reigning Super Bowl champions finished last year in the top three of our PR+ metric, and there’s very little from this offseason to suggest that will change dramatically. They have lost a couple of contributors, including Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, S Coby Bryant, and CB Riq Woolen. However, their additions, in large part, offset their losses, so we do not expect a significant drop-off over the course of the 2026 season.
The problem for the Seahawks is that they play in arguably the strongest division in football, with both the Rams and 49ers also sitting inside our top four entering the summer of 2026. For that reason, the Seahawks’ percentage chance to win the division is lower than you might expect from the top-ranked squad. It also means they have only a 16.2% chance of earning the NFC’s number one seed.
The Seahawks finish the season with two games in three weeks against the Rams and play the Eagles in Week 15. With the 49ers and Cowboys in Weeks 12 and 13, the Seahawks are going to want to avoid a sluggish start in 2026.
2) Los Angeles Rams
- Projected 2026 Record: 10.0-7.0
- Division Win Percentage: 31.7%
- Playoff Percentage: 66.1%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 2.2%
The Rams-Seahawks NFC Championship Game was an intense battle for the Lombardi Trophy. Whichever team won that game was always likely to prevail over a Patriots team that had a lot of luck in advancing through the AFC side of the playoffs. The Rams’ offseason has arguably only strengthened their chances with two very good acquisitions at cornerback in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
The Rams will have to deal with a strong NFC West again in 2026, with both the Seahawks and 49ers expected to be double-digit win teams. Right now, in our FPM, one of the trio is the number one seed in over 40% of our simulations, showing the strength of the division.
The Rams run the gauntlet in the final two months of the season with the Packers, Chiefs, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Seahawks to round out the season. If the Rams go into their bye week with fewer than six wins, it is going to be difficult to get much above 10 wins with that final schedule.
3) Buffalo Bills
- Projected 2026 Record: 10.1-6.9
- Division Win Percentage: 57.6%
- Playoff Percentage: 77.2%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 2.0%
The Buffalo Bills come in as the best of the AFC in our power rankings. The addition of D.J. Moore at wide receiver should help take this offense to the next level. The loss of David Edwards at left guard is the most significant departure for a team that relied on the fifth-ranked offensive line last year to provide that stability. Even if they regress a little, the addition of a reliable receiving weapon in Moore should offset any concerns.
The general consensus after the Super Bowl was that the Bills were one of the two best teams in the AFC last season. The prevailing thought is that the winner of the Denver-Buffalo Divisional Round matchup would have gone on to play in the Super Bowl if not for Bo Nix’s injury. If Buffalo can avoid some of the sloppy play we saw at times last season, they should win the AFC East and have a great shot at the No. 1 seed (18.7%).
The Bills have a tough stretch from Week 12 to Week 16, with the Chiefs, Patriots, Packers, Bears, and Broncos, including Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night games. They finish with the Jets and Dolphins, which might prove to be some nice relief heading into the playoffs.
4) San Francisco 49ers
- Projected 2026 Record: 10.0-7.0
- Division Win Percentage: 30.3%
- Playoff Percentage: 65.3%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 3.2%
The San Francisco 49ers’ season ended in a whimper last year, but given their injury issues, they did well to reach where they did. They backed that up with some good moves in free agency and via trade, but aside from Mike Evans and Osa Odighizuwa, much of the focus seemed to be on adding depth, which is understandable.
When you also consider that they only got nine games out of Brock Purdy, and he did not complete a couple of them, their 2025 season looks even better. While Mac Jones was a top-10 quarterback by PFSN’s QB Impact metric in 2025, he is still a downgrade from Purdy, and they should improve with their starter fully healthy in 2026.
One element to watch with San Francisco is the upheaval of their schedule. No team will travel more in 2026, and they have a flight back from Australia following their Week 1 game. If that trip results in a loss and causes them to have a sluggish couple of weeks at the start of the season, the train could get off the track pretty quickly in Santa Clara.
Their finish to the season is pretty tough with games against the Seahawks, Rams, Chargers, Chiefs, and Eagles all coming in the final seven weeks. If they win the NFC West in 2026, the 49ers will be a battle-hardened team.
5) Chicago Bears
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.8-7.2
- Division Win Percentage: 32.6%
- Playoff Percentage: 62.2%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 3.0%
The Chicago Bears appear to be doing everything right as they look to build on a promising 2025 season. Drew Dalman’s retirement is a tough blow, but Garrett Bradbury’s experience mitigates some of that loss. If they can get either a healthy Braxton Jones at left tackle or solid play from Jedrick Wills, a line that was the best in the league last year could finish No. 1 once again.
The NFC North is a bit of a juggernaut. We expect the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to be strong once again, while the Minnesota Vikings are somewhat of an unknown. This division could easily produce three playoff teams, but it can also prove grueling as the season wears on, leaving little room for error. The Bears need more consistency from Caleb Williams this season, and if they get that, a Super Bowl appearance is possible.
The Bears have a tough stretch around Christmas, with the Bills the week before, the Packers on Christmas Day, and the Lions in Week 17. However, the rest of their schedule does not look too bad in terms of tough stretches of games.
6) Green Bay Packers
- Projected 2025 Record: 9.7-7.3
- Division Win Percentage: 31.3%
- Playoff Percentage: 61.3%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 3.7%
A lot was expected from the Packers last year, and it very much felt like they underachieved when they failed to win the division and then lost to their biggest rivals on Wild Card Weekend. Jordan Love finished as a top-five quarterback in PFSN’s Impact metric last year, despite playing behind a line that ranked in the bottom five.
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Losing Rasheed Walker at left tackle creates some concern on that side of the line, and Sean Rhyan is not an upgrade on Elgton Jenkins at center. Their offseason additions do not make you immediately think this team got a lot better, especially when factoring in the loss of Rashan Gary and the fact that Micah Parsons may not be 100% to start the season. They are still a solid team who retain the Super Bowl upside many felt they had last year.
The Packers’ finish is pretty tough after their bye with the Rams on Wednesday, and then games against the Bills, Bears, Texans, and Lions in the final five weeks.
7) Denver Broncos
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.8-7.2
- Division Win Percentage: 48.6%
- Playoff Percentage: 70.5%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 4.2%
The Denver Broncos have all the pieces to challenge once again in 2026. You can certainly make the argument that they were one Bo Nix injury from a Super Bowl and possibly a Lombardi Trophy in 2025. Nix should be healthy to start the season, and while there might be some caution, the biggest concern is the lack of practice time this offseason for his development.
The Broncos’ draft was somewhat underwhelming, but only having one pick in the first three rounds will do that. However, the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle adds a different element to this offense and makes it a threat to beat defenses in a multitude of ways. They didn’t add much else in free agency, but with a top-ranked defense and offensive line, there isn’t much they need to add to go again this season.
The Broncos’ season starts tough with games against the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks. It softens a little in the middle before a tough finish with the Bills, Patriots, and Chargers in the final three weeks.
8) Philadelphia Eagles
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.5-7.5
- Division Win Percentage: 43.5%
- Playoff Percentage: 60.0%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 5.0%
The Eagles have had an interesting offseason. They replaced Jaelan Phillips with Jonathan Greenard and then added intriguing playmakers in Tariq Woolen, Makai Lemon, and Eli Stowers. The A.J. Brown conversation still looms large, but even if he is traded, this offense still has the pieces to be a top-10 group, supported by a solid defense.
There has been some talk about this team moving on from Jalen Hurts, but that seems unlikely for a quarterback who led them to a Super Bowl 15 months ago and is a potential difference-maker in any game he plays. The Eagles seemingly cruised to 11 wins despite Hurts having the worst season of his career, per PFSN’s QB Impact metric. If he bounces back to be the top-five QB he has been, this team should win the division with ease again.
The Eagles should be pretty pleased with their closing stretch, with games against the Seahawks, Texans, and 49ers sandwiched by matchups with the Cardinals, Colts, and Giants. There are at least three winnable games in that final six when they will hopefully be looking to clinch the division.
9) Baltimore Ravens
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.9-7.1
- Division Win Percentage: 47.0%
- Playoff Percentage: 70.6%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 3.9%
The situation in Baltimore looks very different with the departure of John Harbaugh and the arrival of Jesse Minter as head coach. However, their offseason focus felt very much along the same lines, with Day 1 and Day 2 draft picks spent on offensive line and pass rush, while the arrival of Trey Hendrickson adds explosiveness to the defense.
Baltimore’s struggles last season very much feel tied to the struggles of their quarterback. Lamar Jackson had his worst season since 2021 last year and posted career lows for passes attempted (302) and completed (192). If Jackson bounces back, the offense should come with him. However, the loss of Tyler Linderbaum hurts this offensive line, and a rookie at one of the guard spots could present a potential weakness in the heart of the offense.
The AFC North could well come down to the final month once again, with the Ravens facing four divisional opponents in the final four weeks. The rest of the schedule has nice ebbs and flows to it, and they will hope to be in a position where 2-2 in the division at the end can clinch it.
10) Detroit Lions
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.6-7.4
- Division Win Percentage: 27.6%
- Playoff Percentage: 56.4%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 5.6%
Everything we know and have seen about the Detroit Lions suggests they should remain a force in the NFC North. However, this is also a team where it is hard not to think that things could go wrong. The division is tough, but thanks to a third-placed finish last year, the rest of the Lions’ schedule looks to be fairly straightforward. If Jared Goff is a top-10 quarterback again in 2026, the Lions have a shot to win the division and make the playoffs.
Their offensive line is arguably the biggest concern, but Penei Sewell is seemingly set to switch to left tackle with rookie Blake Miller at right tackle. This unit ranked as league-average last year, so they will be hoping it can at least remain there, if not improve. If their defensive backfield can stay healthy, that will also help a team that gave up 27 or more points in six of those final 10 games.
The Lions’ season finishes with the Bears and Packers, but their run of games from Weeks 13 to 16 looks pretty soft entering the season. If the Lions have struggled during the season, they could storm back into contention in those four weeks.
11) Houston Texans
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.3-7.7
- Division Win Percentage: 39.9%
- Playoff Percentage: 61.5%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 5.6%
The Houston Texans’ season looked to be building nicely towards a crescendo, with nine straight regular-season wins, followed by a dominant victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then things went wrong in New England as C.J. Stroud struggled, and even the impressive Texans’ defense could not cover for his four interceptions. While they remain the best team in the AFC South entering 2026, it raises some serious questions.
The defense might actually be even better in 2026, so their success will depend on Stroud and the offensive line. They have made sweeping changes, including adding Wyatt Teller and rookie Keylan Rutledge at guard, as well as Braden Smith at right tackle. Based on last year’s numbers for Teller and Smith, those moves are at best lateral, but they could be an upgrade if the line gels.
The Texans face the Eagles and Packers in the last three weeks, coming off a Week 15 game against the Jaguars. They will be hoping the division is still at least in play when they face the Titans in Week 18.
12) New England Patriots
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.0-8.0
- Division Win Percentage: 30.8%
- Playoff Percentage: 56.2%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 7.8%
The New England Patriots have had a wild 18 months. They went from hopeless with signs of promise in 2024 to much improved under Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye’s second-year improvement in 2025. That, combined with a soft schedule and a lot of playoff luck, saw them go from a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to the Super Bowl less than 12 months later.
The offseason was shaping up well with intriguing additions in Alijah Vera-Tucker, Kevin Byard, and Romeo Doubs, and they found some nice value in the NFL Draft to address their needs. However, Vrabel’s personal life could blow all that promise out of the water if it proves to be a distraction this season. Combine that with a tougher schedule and potential regression from Maye after ranking as PFSN’s No. 1 QB in 2025, and the wheels could come off.
The Patriots get both the Jets and Dolphins in the final three weeks but do have the Chargers, Bills, Chiefs, and Broncos on the schedule in the final two months.
13) Jacksonville Jaguars
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.0-8.0
- Division Win Percentage: 33.3%
- Playoff Percentage: 55.0%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 7.8%
The Jacksonville Jaguars had a strong 2025 season and came very close to beating the Bills in the playoffs. Entering 2026, they did not make sweeping free-agent upgrades, and their draft was ranked among the worst by PFSN’s grades. For that reason, they have dropped below the Texans in these power rankings compared to last year’s finish.
Additionally, the Jaguars have a slightly harder schedule than the Texans after winning the division last year, and that plays a big role in their 2026 prediction numbers. Jacksonville has not had a good history of stringing together strong seasons over the past two decades, so whether they can is yet to be seen. Trevor Lawrence has improved in each of the last three seasons, a trend they hope to keep going.
The Jaguars will not be too disappointed with their finish to the season, although the Cowboys, Commanders, and Colts could all be fighting for playoff spots. Out of the Texans’ and Jaguars’ finishes, most would prefer the Jaguars.
14) Dallas Cowboys
- Projected 2026 Record: 8.5-8.5
- Division Win Percentage: 24.6%
- Playoff Percentage: 40.6%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 10.3%
The Dallas Cowboys are a wild card with a wide range of potential outcomes. Their roster is solid enough that if Dak Prescott and the offense perform at a high level, they could be a playoff team, and from there, a potential Super Bowl contender. The arrival of Rashan Gary is as close as it gets to replacing what they lost in Micah Parsons, and, alongside Quinnen Williams, makes the defensive front a potential strength.
The problem for the Cowboys is that there are many unknowns on defense. Gary is far from a sure thing, and the secondary has its share of question marks. If Prescott struggles or is injured, or the offensive line regresses, this is a team that could be looking at double-digit losses and a top-five pick. The success route is more likely, but a complete collapse is not out of the question.
Either side of their Week 14 bye, the Cowboys have the Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, and Jaguars. They finish with the Giants and Commanders, two games they hope to win to take the division. There is a tough stretch early with the Ravens in Rio de Janeiro, followed by the Texans in Week 4, leading into the Buccaneers, Packers, and Eagles.
15) Kansas City Chiefs
- Projected 2026 Record: 8.7-8.3
- Division Win Percentage: 26.0%
- Playoff Percentage: 49.8%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 10.5%
The outlook for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026 swings heavily on the availability of Patrick Mahomes. If Mahomes plays 75% of the season, you would not doubt their ability to make the playoffs and potentially even win the division, but if he misses more than five or six games, they are a potential top-10 pick. If he rushes back and ends up missing a majority of that season, the Chiefs could be a candidate to pick in the top five of the NFL Draft.
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The offseason moves do not inspire confidence. Letting three cornerbacks walk via trade and free agency raises some serious questions, and they lost other useful pieces. A lot will depend on whether their three top-40 draft picks can contribute immediately and on their ceiling. You never count out Mahomes and Andy Reid, but it would be a surprise if this team were lifting the Lombardi Trophy without some major trades.
It would be hard to believe the Chiefs wanted to start the season with the Broncos, but aside from that, their opening is soft, given they could be without Mahomes for the first month. The back part of the schedule is tough with the Bills, Rams, Bengals, Patriots, 49ers, and Chargers all in a five-week run in their final six games.
16) Cincinnati Bengals
- Projected 2026 Record: 9.1-7.9
- Division Win Percentage: 30.0%
- Playoff Percentage: 55.9%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 9.2%
The Cincinnati Bengals are one of a number of teams that you could see either lifting the Lombardi Trophy or picking in the top three next April, and neither would be a major surprise. There is so much talent on the roster, but there are also holes. Joe Burrow’s ability can mask many of those holes, but if he is injured, this team could collapse.
The defense is interesting, with Dexter Lawrence being a major upgrade, while they hope that swapping Trey Hendrickson for Boye Mafe is not a downgrade in pressuring opposing passers. The AFC North is a massive unknown with changes at the head coach positions on the other three teams, so the Bengals could prove to be the class of the group with their relative leadership stability.
17) Washington Commanders
- Projected 2026 Record: 8.3-8.7
- Division Win Percentage: 21.6%
- Playoff Percentage: 35.6%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 13.9%
The Washington Commanders went from being the biggest surprise in 2024 to one of the biggest disappointments in 2025. Entering 2026, their expectations are understandably more middle-of-the-road. Their offseason has been a good one, adding tremendous value with Sonny Styles, Antonio Williams, and Joshua Josephs in the draft, while appearing to have added more than they lost in free agency.
If they get 2024 Jayden Daniels at quarterback, they can push the Eagles and Cowboys for the division or be a potential playoff problem opponent. If Daniels is injured or struggles, it could be a long season, but the rest of the roster looks better primed to be competitive with below-average quarterback play than it was last season, when they finished 5-12.
18) Los Angeles Chargers
- Projected 2026 Record: 8.1-8.9
- Division Win Percentage: 18.1%
- Playoff Percentage: 37.7%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 3.2%
A common theme of the AFC in 2025 was teams underperforming against the Patriots, and the Los Angeles Chargers were one of them. The Chargers have seen Justin Herbert play above-average football consistently under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, but hopefully, he can take the step into a top-10 player at the position in 2026.
The Chargers made improvements across their roster, but the most important thing for them will be getting Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt healthy at left and right tackle. That duo would elevate an offensive line that was one of the worst in the league into at least a league-average unit, just by virtue of the improvement at the bookends.
With Kansas City and Mahomes an unknown in 2026, and Nix having yet to rank above 14th in our QB Impact metric, there is definitely a path for the Chargers to win the AFC West.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Projected 2026 Record: 8.4-8.6
- Division Win Percentage: 35.3%
- Playoff Percentage: 43.8%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 13.9%
The decline in Baker Mayfield’s play in 2025 has to be a concern for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. According to PFSN’s QB Impact metric, Mayfield ranked seventh in 2024 but fell to 24th in 2025, producing his worst season since arriving in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers completely collapsed down the stretch, losing seven of their final nine games to slide from 6-2 to 8-9 and miss the playoffs.
They made a number of additions in free agency, but it says a lot that the headline was the departure of Mike Evans. They had a strong draft, especially on the defensive side, but there are still questions around whether their offensive line can be better than the below-average performance from last year.
20) Minnesota Vikings
- Projected 2026 Record: 7.8-9.2
- Division Win Percentage: 8.5%
- Playoff Percentage: 25.2%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 17.7%
The J.J. McCarthy experiment did not go well in 2025, with the young quarterback ranking 37th in PFSN’s QBi with a D grade. They added Kyler Murray, which should help, but Murray is far from the player he was at his peak in 2021. The positive is that in the receiving group for Minnesota, there is plenty of talent for him to throw the ball to, which is something he lacked at times in Arizona.
The problem for Minnesota is that they really need three teams to underperform for them to win the division. The Bears, Packers, and Lions are superior in terms of talent entering 2026, so for the Vikings to take home the crown, they would need all three to deal with bad luck or play well below their level. If Minnesota can go 3-3 or 4-2 in the division, it should give them a shot to make the playoffs, as their non-division schedule is not that strong.
21) Pittsburgh Steelers
- Projected 2026 Record: 8.1-8.9
- Division Win Percentage: 16.6%
- Playoff Percentage: 37.5%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 15.9%
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a weird situation: they have a new head coach and no idea whether they have their first-choice quarterback in 2026. Aaron Rodgers has not yet committed to play for the team in 2026, leaving Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, and Drew Allar in the quarterback room.
Despite some solid moves this offseason, the Steelers are staring down the barrel of something of a disaster if Rodgers does not play. It is fair to say that they could be one of the worst teams in the AFC if they have to rely on that trio of quarterbacks. With Rodgers, they would be almost exactly what they were last year: a fringe playoff contender likely to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
22) Indianapolis Colts
- Projected 2026 Record: 8.0-9.0
- Division Win Percentage: 16.6%
- Playoff Percentage: 35.2%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 19.8%
It is really hard to gauge the Indianapolis Colts in 2026. They were such a surprise in the first half of the 2025 season under Daniel Jones that regression felt inevitable. Ultimately, it came following an injury to Jones, and now we have two questions to ponder with the Colts: how healthy will Jones be in 2026? And will he perform at a similar level to what we saw in 2025 when he put up career-best efficiency numbers?
The Colts’ roster has a number of good pieces, and with Jones at 100%, they are a legitimate contender to battle with the Jaguars and Texans in the AFC South. However, the history of quarterbacks and Achilles injuries is not good so there is definitely a level of caution in their projection for the upcoming season.
23) Atlanta Falcons
- Projected 2026 Record: 7.8-9.2
- Division Win Percentage: 24.4%
- Playoff Percentage: 31.9%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 20.2%
The Atlanta Falcons finished the 2025 season strongly under Kirk Cousins, but he is no longer on the roster, and we now have the relative unknown Michael Penix Jr., combined with what remains of Tua Tagovailoa’s career after his release from Miami. Penix was fine as a rookie in a limited sample size, but struggled as a full-time starter in 2025, finishing with a D+ QB Impact grade and ranking 31st among qualified quarterbacks.
The Falcons were active in free agency and made the most of their limited draft capital, but their season will live and die by the quarterback. The positive for Atlanta is that the NFC South is arguably the worst division in football, with all four teams having major question marks. The Falcons nearly fell into the playoffs in 2025 and could do so again if Penix or Tua can be just a solid option under center.
24) New York Giants
- Projected 2026 Record: 7.4-9.6
- Division Win Percentage: 10.4%
- Playoff Percentage: 20.1%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 25.6%
The John Harbaugh-led New York Giants are somewhat of a mystery entering 2026. Jaxson Dart showed glimpses last season, and they have put some solid pieces around him through free agency and the draft. The offensive line is a big question mark, and Malik Nabers’ health could be vital to the passing offense’s productivity.
While it is hard to imagine the Giants coming out on top in the NFC East, it is far from out of the question. The Eagles just seem to be wobbling a little, the Cowboys are seemingly never far from total collapse, and the Commanders are a Jayden Daniels injury away from Marcus Mariota at quarterback. While a top-five selection in the 2027 NFL Draft is more likely than a playoff berth, it does feel like there is some hope for Big Blue.
25) Carolina Panthers
- Projected 2026 Record: 7.3-9.7
- Division Win Percentage: 18.2%
- Playoff Percentage: 24.8%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 25.0%
What a rollercoaster the final few weeks of the 2025 season were for the Panthers. From 8-7, they lost their final two games, only squeaking into the playoffs on a three-way tiebreaker before nearly upsetting the Rams in the Wild Card round. The positives come from being the closest to .500 they have been since 2017, when they went 11-5, but it is hard to find much beyond that.
Bryce Young did not take a step forward in 2025, finishing with a second-straight D+ QBi grade. Sure, they have put more pieces around him again this offseason, and the offensive line will be good, but after three years, have we seen the best of him, or can Dave Canales get improvement in their third season together? The division is there for the taking again, and it likely would not need much of a step up in performance.
26) New Orleans Saints
- Projected 2026 Record: 7.7-9.3
- Division Win Percentage: 22.1%
- Playoff Percentage: 29.0%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 25.3%
The New Orleans Saints could make the case for being the team with the most significant improvement in 2025. Very little was expected of Tyler Shough as a rookie, but he managed to finish as the top-ranked quarterback in the division by PFSN’s QB Impact metric. They built on that with a solid draft and some good moves in free agency, and there is a lot of potential for them in 2026.
The Saints’ roster still has holes, but they have the third-easiest schedule this season, and if they can go 3-3 or 4-2 in the division, they could be a candidate to win double-digit games. There is a lot that needs to happen, and it might be a false dawn, because it would be tough to imagine this Saints team winning one playoff game, let alone multiple playoff games, but there is reason for some optimism despite the lowly ranking.
27) Tennessee Titans
- Projected 2026 Record: 7.3-9.7
- Division Win Percentage: 10.3%
- Playoff Percentage: 23.8%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 28.9%
The Tennessee Titans will be hoping for a Patriots-like rise under new head coach Robert Saleh, which is incredibly ironic. Cam Ward did not show the potential as a rookie that we saw in Drake Maye, but under a new regime, it is not out of the question that this Titans team could be in the playoff hunt after a solid offseason building around Ward. Progress from Ward is the key metric for this team in 2026.
The Texans, Jaguars, and Colts all have question marks that could even open the door for the AFC South to be in play. If the Titans reach our projected 90th percentile of 10 wins, our simulations give them a 42.4% chance of winning the division. The worst outcome for the Titans would be a six or seven-win season with little to no sign of progress from Ward, which could leave them outside the prime spots for a quarterback next year.
28) Miami Dolphins
- Projected 2026 Record: 6.7-10.3
- Division Win Percentage: 6.3%
- Playoff Percentage: 16.9%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 34.8%
This is expected to be the Miami Dolphins’ first year of a rebuild under a new head coach (Jeff Hafley) and general manager (Jon-Eric Sullivan). They moved on from several players, including Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chubb, and added what many view as bridge pieces, such as Malik Willis. However, Willis showed flashes of competence as an NFL quarterback in Green Bay, and if he can build on that, Miami could surprise a few teams.
For them to win the division, they would need the Bills to massively underperform expectations, but if that does happen, there are reasons to believe both the Patriots and Jets could struggle to get to .500. A more realistic path to the playoffs for the Dolphins is as a Wild Card team, with the AFC looking soft after those first three or four teams.
29) Las Vegas Raiders
- Projected 2026 Record: 6.9-10.1
- Division Win Percentage: 7.3%
- Playoff Percentage: 18.6%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 35.4%
The Las Vegas Raiders spent the No. 1 pick on Fernando Mendoza, and while the rest of their offseason has been somewhat chaotic, it might work out for the best. They have a new head coach in Klint Kubiak, and after the trade of Maxx Crosby fell through, their defense looks extremely strong with their other additions.
The offense still has holes at receiver, and despite the arrival of Tyler Linderbaum, this offensive line still projects to be a bottom-10 unit in the league. This season for the Raiders should be viewed as a potential progress season. A top-five selection in next year’s draft would arguably be better for them long-term, but getting to the playoffs under a new head coach-quarterback combination would be a promising start to the new era in Vegas.
30) Arizona Cardinals
- Projected 2026 Record: 6.3-10.7
- Division Win Percentage: 1.7%
- Playoff Percentage: 7.7%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 42.4%
The Arizona Cardinals have embarked on a rebuild, handing their offense over to Jacoby Brissett with Gardner Minshew II and Carson Beck rounding out the quarterback room. With the strength of the rest of the division, they have chosen a good time to do it. For the Cardinals to win this division, they would need all three of the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers to underperform significantly against expectations.
The Cardinals most likely do not have their long-term quarterback option on the roster, and with an expected bumper quarterback class in next year’s draft, another tough season should be viewed as a means to an end for Cardinals fans.
31) New York Jets
- Projected 2026 Record: 6.7-10.3
- Division Win Percentage: 5.4%
- Playoff Percentage: 15.4%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 41.8%
The New York Jets made the most of the NFL Draft, adding four players in the top 50 selections. They also added Geno Smith, but that very much feels like a lateral step from last season. Smith should be a safer option than Justin Fields was, and if the rest of the roster can step up, there is an outside chance they could push for the playoffs and even the division, but it is unlikely.
Smith is both the past and the present for the Jets, but it is unlikely he is the future. While a playoff run might be fun for Jets fans, it would not be the best thing for their long-term aspirations.
32) Cleveland Browns
- Projected 2026 Record: 7.0-10.0
- Division Win Percentage: 6.4%
- Playoff Percentage: 18.1%
- Top-5 2027 NFL Draft Pick Percentage: 38.4%
There has been a lot of change in Cleveland, with the head coach and the entire offensive line as the headline grabbers. They added some nice pieces in free agency, and while their offensive line is still ranked among the worst in the league, there are reasons for optimism. The offense got a further boost in the NFL Draft with Spencer Fano and two wide receivers being added to the fold.
The big question in Cleveland is the quarterback position. Will they go back to Deshaun Watson, or will it be Shedeur Sanders job to open the year? Most likely, it will be Sanders under center, and his development will largely determine whether the Browns have any chance of competing in the AFC North and the wider AFC this season. The expectation is another season of struggles, but things can change quickly in the NFL.
