It’s that time of year when early win-total projections start rolling out, and the college football world begins debating which teams are being overvalued and which ones might be flying under the radar.
One of the more interesting discussions came from RJ Young on his YouTube channel, “Adapt & Respond: RJ Young.”
In a recent reaction video to early projections, Young highlighted two programs he believes are being given extremely optimistic expectations: the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Going Undefeated Is a Tall Task for Texas Tech and Notre Dame
Both teams opened with a projected win total of 11.5 games, suggesting oddsmakers believe an undefeated regular season is very much in play.
“I would take the under on that because that would mean that both Texas Tech and Notre Dame would have to go 12-0,” Young said. “I just don’t see it. Both of these teams have demonstrated to all of us that they can drop a game they’re not supposed to.”
For Notre Dame, the argument isn’t that the team lacks talent. In fact, the program has consistently fielded competitive rosters and remains a frequent contender in the expanded playoff discussion.
However, the results in recent seasons illustrate Young’s point.
MORE: Brendan Sorsby Texas Tech: Why $6M Deal Beat Lane Kiffin’s LSU Pitch
Last season, Notre Dame finished the regular season with two losses, falling to tough opponents in Texas A&M and Miami. Those defeats weren’t necessarily shocking, but they were enough to keep the Irish from a perfect season.
In 2024, Notre Dame suffered a far more puzzling loss to Northern Illinois Huskies, exactly the type of upset Young referenced when discussing teams dropping games they shouldn’t. Elite teams rarely avoid those kinds of moments across a full season.
The same logic applies to Texas Tech.
While the Red Raiders have assembled one of the more talented rosters in the Big 12 Conference, they also proved last season that nothing is guaranteed week to week. Texas Tech dropped a surprising game to a banged-up Arizona State Sun Devils squad despite having a stronger roster on paper.
That kind of upset is precisely why projecting perfection in college football can be risky.
Major Departures Could Matter
Taking the under on 11.5 wins doesn’t mean either team is expected to struggle. In fact, 11-1 seasons are entirely realistic outcomes for both programs.
Each team returns significant talent and currently ranks inside the top six nationally in PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter projections for the 2026 season. Still, expecting a flawless regular season is a different level of prediction altogether.
Both programs will also be replacing key stars.
Notre Dame must move forward without one of the best running backs in the country, Jeremiyah Love, a player currently projected as a top-five prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft according to PFSN’s Big Board.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech will need to fill the void left by Heisman finalist Jacob Rodriguez. Rodriguez anchored a Red Raiders defense that finished with a 95.8 PFSN CFB Defensive Impact score, the second-best mark in college football.
Replacing that level of production is never simple.
College football history shows just how difficult undefeated seasons truly are. Injuries, road environments, rivalry games, and random weekly variance all combine to make perfection incredibly rare.
For teams like Notre Dame and Texas Tech, both talented enough to reach the College Football Playoff, the more realistic path might be a one-loss season rather than perfection.
That’s exactly why analysts like RJ Young are skeptical of the 11.5 win totals.
Both programs are legitimate contenders. But given recent history, expecting either to go 12-0 is asking a lot.
