Entering the season and through the opening weeks, it seemed the Buffalo Bills were on their way to a sixth straight AFC East title.
​Then, the Patriots stunned the Bills in Buffalo in Week 5 and seized first place the next week. For much of the season, that victory signaled a possible shift in the division hierarchy.
​Buffalo Bills Throw a Crimp in New England Patriots’ Division-Title Dreams
​The Patriots appeared ready to claim the division title when they hosted the Bills and raced to a 21-point lead in the first 21 minutes of their Week 15 rematch.
​Drake Maye tallied two rushing touchdowns in the first quarter. This seemed like a changing of the guard, but Josh Allen led the Bills to a memorable 35-31 comeback win, stopping the Patriots from clinching the division that day.
​Allen and Maye demonstrated in that game and throughout the season why they are second and third, respectively, in the PFSN’s Quarterback Impact (QBi) rankings.
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​AFC East Week 17 Playoff Scenarios: Patriots in Driver’s Seat
​Entering Week 17, the New England Patriots are 12-3 and lead the Buffalo Bills by one game with two weeks remaining. According to the PFSN Playoff Predictor, the Patriots have a 72.2% chance to secure the division.
​The Patriots dominated the New York Jets on the road. Drake Maye threw four of his five touchdown passes as New England jumped out to a 35-3 halftime lead before cruising to an easy 42-10 win.
​The Patriots can clinch the division on Sunday if the Bills lose to the Philadelphia Eagles. According to PFSN Analytics, the Bills are slight favorites with a 50.5% chance of victory.
​The Patriots must win in Week 18 or have the Bills lose one of their final two games.
​​​Looking ahead to Week 18, the Patriots have a 66.0% chance to beat the Miami Dolphins at home, while the Bills have a 75.6% chance to beat the Jets in their final home regular-season game at Highmark Stadium.
​​If the Bills and Patriots have the same record after the 17th game, Buffalo will win the AFC East on the fourth tiebreaker, better conference record. The two teams would be even on the first three tiebreakers after they split their two meetings, would have the same division record, and a common game record.
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​​What Are the Bills’ and Patriots’ Chances of Being the AFC No. 1 Seed?
​Both the Bills and Patriots can still claim the top seed and home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs. They trail the Denver Broncos.
​The Broncos hold a 62.4% chance to secure the top AFC spot, per the PFSN Playoff Predictor. The Patriots have a 25.4% chance, and the Bills 1.7%, to finish as the top seed.
​New England’s path is simpler: win in Week 18 and have Denver lose to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bills must win both games and receive help to clinch home-field advantage.
​According to PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter, the most likely seeds for the AFC East teams are the No. 2 seed for New England and the No. 5 seed for Buffalo.
