The Buffalo Bills have won five straight AFC East titles but needed help from a division rival to surpass the New England Patriots for a sixth. The Bills, who were on a four-game winning streak coming into Week 17, needed to win their remaining games and have the Patriots lose at least one game to win the division.
The last two games of the regular season could be the final ones played at Highmark Stadium, which will close after 53 seasons. Winning the division was the only way to guarantee a home game in the postseason. Buffalo would only have a postseason home game as a Wild Card team if all the teams seeded ahead of them lose.
What Are the Buffalo Bills’ Chances of Winning the AFC East and Being the No. 1 Seed?
Buffalo has clinched a postseason spot and will have another chance to chase the elusive Super Bowl trophy. After their loss in Week 17, it is confirmed that Buffalo will start the playoffs on the road as a Wild Card team, as the Patriots have clinched the division.
According to the PFSN Playoff Predictor, the Bills had a 27.8% chance to win the division before their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. They are now the seventh seed in the AFC, and would face the Patriots in the Wild Card round if the playoffs started today.
​Buffalo is 11-5, two games behind the Patriots, and can no longer match their record. If the Bills and Patriots had the same record after the 17th game, Buffalo would have won the AFC East on the fourth tiebreaker, better conference record.
The two teams would have been even on the first three tiebreakers after they split their two meetings, would have had the same division record, and a common game record.
​The Bills hosted the Eagles, who have clinched the NFC East, in Week 17, and lost 13-6. Meanwhile, the Patriots visited the New York Jets and came away with a dominating win.
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​Looking ahead to Week 18, the Bills have a 75.6% chance to beat the Jets in their final home regular-season game at Highmark Stadium, while the Patriots have a 66.0% chance to beat the Miami Dolphins at home. Before Week 17, the Bills had a small chance (2.6%) of being the top seed in the AFC.
According to PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter, the Bills have the highest chance to be a seventh seed (48.90%). With one game left, Buffalo could have any of the three Wild Card spots for the playoffs.
​Josh Allen, who is second in PFSN’s Quarterback Impact (QBi), was dealing with a foot injury suffered coming into Week 17. He played against the Eagles, but failed to lead his team to a win.
