NFL Week 16 Broncos vs. Jaguars Prediction: Travis Etienne Jr. Establishes the Run on Broncos

The 12-2 Denver Broncos play the 10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. Both teams have a 7-2 conference record. As of this writing, though, the Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference, while the Jaguars are the No. 3 seed. Heading into the matchup, the former have 75.1% odds to win the No. 1 seed, while the latter have 9.4% odds. Both teams are riding winning streaks of at least five games as well.

The Broncos Win if Bo Nix Totals 300-Plus Scrimmage Yards

Nix is on a heater. He has 300-plus scrimmage yards in three of his past five games, attempting 34-plus pass attempts in four games in that span as well. In addition, Nix has at least a 64% completion percentage in four of those games. In Week 15, though, the touchdowns regressed to the mean. Nix totaled four passing touchdowns to four different pass catchers. He must continue this streak to keep up with the Jaguars’ offense in Week 16, though.

Working against Nix, however, is the Jaguars’ defense allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing offenses. And the Broncos’ rushing offense isn’t the same sans running back J.K. Dobbins. This means the Jaguars’ defense can key in on the Broncos’ offense’s passing game. All hands must be on deck this week amongst the Broncos’ pass catchers. Tight end Evan Engram is in play for a revenge game as well.

The Jaguars’ offense, meanwhile, is No. 8 in points per game (26.9). And the Broncos’ defense is No. 3 in points per game allowed to opposing offenses (18.6). In a passing league, though, pick offense over defense. An unstoppable force meets an immovable object this week. It’s going to be a fun cat-and-mouse game to watch.

The Broncos Lose if the Defense Allows More Than 20 Points

That said, the Broncos’ defense, No. 2 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score, faces a lot of pressure this week. The Jaguars’ offense, No. 16 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Score, is averaging over 30 points per game in their last five matchups. Then there’s Jagurs running back Travis Etienne Jr. in the fold. After Week 15, he’s posted his third 1,200-plus scrimmage yard season in four years. Etienne Jr. has 73-plus scrimmage yards in six of his last seven games as well.

While the Broncos’ defense is No. 2 in rushing yards per game allowed to opposing offenses, Etienne Jr. can win in the passing game as well. In general, running backs are mismatches on linebackers, and the Broncos’ defense doesn’t have blue-chip talent at the position. This is a spot for Etienne Jr. to total triple-digit scrimmage yards.

Prediction: Jaguars 34–31

So, the Jaguars’ offense puts up four more touchdowns this week, on the heels of their 48-point total from Week 15. The Jaguars extend their winning streak to six games, while the Broncos’ winning streak comes to an end at 11 games. In this scenario, the Jaguars’ odds of winning the No. 1 seed in the AFC increase to 21.3%, while the Broncos’ odds decrease to 53.3%.