The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Arizona Cardinals players heading into their matchup with the Carolina Panthers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Michael Penix Jr., QB
I’d be hard-pressed to put positive Michael Penix’s performance in Germany against the Colts as “good,” but he did all that we ask of him: give Drake London a chance to be the difference-maker we know him to be.
In the Week 9 loss to the Patriots, 40.9% of his completions (41.2% of his targets) went to his WR1, and half of his completions last week went that direction, numbers that don’t include the two-point conversion late.
Is Penix the long-term answer in Atlanta? Is he a future fantasy asset?
I’m not sold on either being true, but he doesn’t have to be for us to get what we need. If you have to go this direction in Superflex situations, I think you can get away with it because of London’s greatness, but outside of that league format, Penix shouldn’t be on your radar.
Bijan Robinson, RB
Was it frustrating to see Tyler Allgeier not only handle the red zone work early, but be the trusted running back on a gotta-have-it drive at the end of regulation?
Very.
Is there anything you can do but shake an angry fist at the TV screen?
Not really.
Robinson remains one of the elites in this game and deserves to be treated as such, both in how you view him in season-long and your roster construction strategy for DFS.
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When these teams met in Week 3, Robinson averaged 5.5 yards per carry, caught 83.3% of his targets, and finished with 111 yards from scrimmage. I have no issue with penciling in similar levels of success, and if he can add a touchdown to the production line, he has a shot to be the most productive RB in the sport this week.
Shake off last week. It’s annoying, but not predictive of anything that requires you to panic.
Tyler Allgeier, RB
With the game on the line, the Falcons elected to pound Tyler Allgeier and were rewarded for it.
The late touchdown drive caught the attention because it meant Atlanta was resting Bijan Robinson, but the first red-zone carry of the game went to Allgeier, suggesting this was more of a plan than anything else.
The backup RB has a career-high six rushing scores this season, five of which have come in his past six games. The touch count rarely overwhelms, the versatility is limited, and the scoring equity on this offense isn’t always there, but he’s been fine when called upon.
I still can’t rank him as a player I’m comfortable flexing. He’s little more than a 50/50 bet to clear six touches, and with his limited ability to make splash plays, you’re betting a little too much on a short score for my liking.
You have a top-20 RB should Robinson ever miss time, but without that happening, Allgeier isn’t going to crack my top 30.
Darnell Mooney, WR
This is getting ugly quickly, and I’m running out of patience.
Over the past three weeks, Darnell Mooney has turned 99 routes into three receptions, a rate that is almost difficult to comprehend. His 13.9-yard aDOT over that stretch introduces variance, but for 14 targets to turn into 43 yards isn’t in the range of outcomes for rosterable players.
The Falcons haven’t had a WR2 step up alongside Drake London, and at the rate he is making plays in traffic, I’m not sure there’s a need for one. With Kyle Pitts averaging 7.8 targets per game over the past month and Bijan Robinson checking in at just under 20 touches per game (six targets), Mooney is on the outside looking in at my top 45 receivers moving forward.
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This isn’t a bad matchup, and there was a big DPI flag he caused last week on what was lining up to be an end-zone target, so if you want to hold for one more week, I’ll allow it.
But that’s as long a leash as I’ll give.
Drake London, WR
There was talk about a Christian Gonzalez shadow lowering our expectations in Week 9, and then, after the trade, Sauce Gardner was projected to stick on him last week in Germany.
Doesn’t matter.
It should be noted that not all of his production (15 catches on 22 targets for 222 yards and four touchdowns) came against those elite counterparts, but some of it did, and the rest came as the result of creative scheming that freed up Atlanta’s alpha pass catcher.
Michael Penix’s first two completions of last week went in London’s direction (gains of 13 and 30 yards), and the touchdown was the exploitation of a mismatch on a linebacker. He accounted for 72.7% of Atlanta’s receiving yards in the first half, further proving himself to be matchup-proof.
Where London stacks up among the best of the game for 2026 will be an interesting exercise to walk through: you’re in a great spot to have him, at cost, on your roster. I’m not the least bit worried about him turning eight targets into just 55 yards during the Week 3 meeting.
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE
What could have been.
Kyle Pitts dropped a big pass on Michael Penix’s first offering of the game, a play that had a chance at being a house call from 56 yards out, given the YAC abilities of the tight end.
But it wasn’t meant to be, and in an offense like this that is as concentrated on a single pass catcher as any in the league, the missing of an opportunity is crippling.
The first pass of the second half also went to Pitts (25-yard gain), a sign to me that this offense is looking to get him going early. That said, there was no momentum to be gained.
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Pitts finished with two catches for 38 yards despite a very reasonable 20% target share. He’s been held without a touchdown in five straight games and has failed to reach 40 receiving yards in five games this season.
He’s certainly on the radar as a backend option at a brutal position, but I’m not ranking him as a must-start, even in a reasonable matchup.
