The No. 7 BYU Cougars and No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders met in Week 11 for a battle of Top 10-ranked programs battling for a playoff berth. Unfortunately for the Cougars, it wasn’t much of a fight, with the Red Raiders riding out to a 29-7 victory for their first Top 10 win in 17 such matchups. What does the result mean for both teams’ CFP hopes?
What are the Chances of Texas Tech Making the College Football Playoff?
When I said a playoff berth was on the line, I wasn’t exaggerating.
According to the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), after defeating BYU, Texas Tech’s chances of making the CFP are now 60.8%. Had they lost? 19.5%.
The Red Raiders entered the contest with the third-ranked defense and the 28th-ranked offense in PFSN’s College Impact scores, and the final score reflects the standing of both. While QB Behren Morton struggled to air it out (17 of 32 for 219 yards and one touchdown), the ground game and defense (led by star LB Jacob Rodriguez and EDGEs David Bailey and Romello Height) did more than enough to suffocate the Cougars.
Now, the Red Raiders are a half-game above their Big 12 rival with just two games left to go before conference championship week.
Remaining Texas Tech Football Schedule
- vs. UCF Knights
- at West Virginia Mountaineers
Although Texas Tech shouldn’t take its remaining opponents for granted, it really shouldn’t struggle to finish the regular season with just one loss. UCF is 4-5 with three of their wins coming in the first three weeks of the season.
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Then, there’s West Virginia, which is 2-5 in the conference and has allowed over 30+ points in five of its last seven contests.
With wins in their final two games, Texas Tech would secure its spot in the Big 12 title match for the first time since joining the conference in 1996.
What are the Chances of BYU Making the College Football Playoff?
If Texas Tech’s CFP percentage rose, BYU’s had to fall. They entered the game with a 58.5% chance of making the last dance and would’ve seen that number increase to 85.2% with a win. However, the loss sees their odds fall to 39.2% with three games to go.
Remaining BYU Football Schedule
- vs. TCU Horndogs
- at Cincinnati Bearcats
- vs. UCF Knights
The Cougars were just one spot lower than TTU in PFSN’s CFB Impact offense score (29th) and were 18th on defense. The defensive unit did its best to limit the Red Raiders’ scoring, but the offense simply couldn’t keep up, with QB Bear Bachmeier averaging 5.9 yards per attempt with one TD and one INT, and the rushing attack averaging 2.7 YPA.
Kelani Sitaki’s program is still favored to win out against TCU, Cincinnati, and UCF, but it won’t be easy. If they do, they’d face Texas Tech once more in the Big 12 Conference Championship, with the winner booking their ticket to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Of course, the loser could have a chance of sneaking in as an at-large bid, but that would be leaving their destiny in the hands of the CFP Committee.
