With a six-game winning streak coming into Week 18, the San Francisco 49ers put themselves in a position to win the NFC West and be the conference’s top seed. When the Seattle Seahawks rallied to defeat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16, the 49ers gained control of their own destiny.
San Francisco defeated the Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears over the past two weeks to stay just a game behind Seattle in the NFC West race before their matchup on Saturday.
What Are the San Francisco 49ers’ Chances of Winning the NFC West and Being the No. 1 Seed?
Saturday presented an easy scenario for the 49ers and Seahawks: the winner of the game becomes the NFC West champion, earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC along with home-field advantage and the conference’s only first-round bye.
If the game had ended in a tie, Seattle would have been the division winner and the NFC’s top seed. However, the Seahawks came away with a fairly comfortable win over the 49ers in Week 18 and will finish the season as the No. 1 seed in their conference.
Before their Week 18 game, according to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Seahawks had a 53.5% chance of securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed, while the 49ers had a 46.5% chance.
If the 49ers had secured a first-round bye, they would have hosted the lowest remaining seed after the opening playoff weekend. It would have put the 49ers in a position to play every postseason game at home, including the Super Bowl, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
However, since San Francisco lost to Seattle, it will start the playoffs as either the fifth or sixth seed in the NFC. If the Rams lose on Sunday, San Francisco is the fifth seed. However, if the Rams win, San Francisco is the sixth seed.
Being the fifth or sixth seed has significant consequences. As the fifth seed, the 49ers would play at Carolina or Tampa Bay during the opening playoff weekend.
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If the 49ers enter as the sixth seed, they would travel to play either the Eagles or the Bears. If they emerge from the Wild Card Round, they would likely face Seattle in the Divisional Playoff Round.
The 49ers have faced three of their four possible Wild Card opponents. In Week 6, they lost to Tampa Bay, but then won their home games against Carolina and Chicago, contributing to their six-game win streak.
According to PFSN Analytics, the 49ers have a 75.60% chance of finishing as the sixth seed in the NFC.
NFC Playoff Seeding Scenarios and Potential Matchups
NFC Playoff Seeding Possibilities:
1) Seattle Seahawks
2) Chicago Bears or Philadelphia Eagles
3) Philadelphia Eagles or Chicago Bears
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Carolina Panthers
5) San Francisco 49ers, or Los Angeles Rams
6) San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams
7) Green Bay Packers
The Panthers clinch the NFC South with an Atlanta Falcons victory against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Tampa Bay defeated Carolina earlier today, but now needs a Saints’ win over the Falcons.
The Bears will earn the second seed with a win or an Eagles loss. They will drop to third if they lose and the Eagles win.
Potential NFC Playoff Matchups
These are the most likely NFC Wild Card playoff matchups, according to our analytics:
Packers at Bears: 67.0%
Rams at Eagles: 38.7%
Seahawks at Panthers: 35.6%
Packers at Eagles: 33.0%
Rams at Panthers: 33.0%
49ers at Eagles: 28.3%
Rams at Bears: 19.1%
49ers at Bears: 14.0%
Seahawks at Buccaneers: 10.0%
49ers at Panthers: 9.5%
Rams at Buccaneers: 9.2%
49ers at Buccaneers: 2.7%
