The New England Patriots beat the odds on Sunday to score a 16-10 road upset of the Cincinnati Bengals. It was a stunning result for fans who believed the rebuilding Patriots were primed for a blowout loss.
But what does it all mean? Does it mean anything?
Ultimately, multiple things can be true at the same time.
Putting Patriots’ Victory Over Bengals Into Proper Prospective
The Patriots Played Well, But Their Formula Isn’t Sustainable
Head coach Jerod Mayo laid out a clear formula for victory, and his team executed it to near perfection. The Patriots dominated in the trenches, won the turnover battle, and shortened the game with an excellent rushing attack led by Rhamondre Stevenson. They played the game on their terms.
But a masterpiece, it was not.
New England’s maligned offensive line excelled in run blocking but allowed Jacoby Brissett to be pressured on 44.8% of his dropbacks, per TruMedia. That was the second-highest rate in Week 1 before Monday night’s game between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers.
Patriots receivers combined for just 66 yards on eight catches, led by Tyquan Thornton’s two catches for 27 yards. Austin Hooper led all Patriots pass catchers with two receptions for 31 yards, while Thornton’s 17-yard grab was the longest of the day.
New England’s offense was able to remain conservative thanks to an excellent performance from the defense, which smothered Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense. Brissett did just enough to win (15 completions, 121 yards, zero touchdowns) despite not having to make any high-level plays. His 6.5 air yards per attempt ranked 16th entering Monday night.
It was enough to win in Week 1, which can be a fluky week. But it’s not a formula for long-term success.
You could win this way two decades ago when high-flying passing attacks were rare. But the days of the Trent Dilfers of the world winning Super Bowls are over. At some point, the Patriots will need to win a shootout.
New England likely won’t compete for a Super Bowl and may not even sniff the playoffs. But if they want to exceed expectations this season, they’ll need to find different ways to win.
The Bengals Were Complicit in Their Demise
The Patriots entered Sunday as 8.5-point underdogs. Nobody gave them a chance. However, if you read Pro Football Network’s Patriots season preview and Week 1 preview, you would’ve known an upset was in the cards.
The Bengals have been notoriously slow starters under Zac Taylor, a problem that goes beyond Burrow’s injury issues. Cincinnati now has lost five of its last six season openers and is 1-8 in the first two weeks of a season since 2020, the worst mark in the NFL.
The Bengals, like many teams around the NFL, run lighter training camps. By contrast, Mayo ran a tough, physically demanding camp this summer with a heavy focus on conditioning.
It was fair to assume the Patriots would be ready to go and the Bengals wouldn’t be. It was just a matter of whether Cincinnati’s talent would win out — and it didn’t.
The Patriots also got a bit lucky, with the Bengals losing one fumble on the goal line and another on a punt return. New England got away with its turnover-worthy plays, with Hunter Henry breaking up a would-be Brissett interception and Stevenson recovering his own fumble. The result could’ve been different if any of those plays went the other way.
As for Ja’Marr Chase, his training camp no-show obviously was a factor, as was Tee Higgins sitting out due to a hamstring injury. But you can play that game both ways, as the Patriots were without Christian Barmore and Kendrick Bourne. Plus, Christian Gonzalez deserves credit after allowing Chase to beat him for just 15 yards on three catches, per TruMedia.
Nevertheless, the Patriots clearly didn’t get the best version of the Bengals. Had this game been played in Week 13, New England could’ve lost by multiple touchdowns.
But this game was played in Week 1, which was the best time to get the Bengals. Let this be yet another lesson in not reading too much into preseason strength-of-schedule rankings. Real NFL games aren’t played on paper or Xbox.
Yes, the Patriots Are Better Than You’ve Been Led to Believe
We’ve been saying this since the NFL’s schedule release in May.
Are the Patriots built like contenders? Of course not. But their defense should give them the floor of last year’s team, which won just four games but lost a ton of close contests because of inept quarterback play, bad positional coaching on offense, and disastrous special teams.
If you insert Brissett and this offensive staff into last year’s Patriots, they probably win eight games.
Remember: The 2023 Patriots lost three consecutive games in which the opposition scored 10 or fewer points. This year’s team will only be that bad if Mayo proves to be a liability as a head coach. The jury is out on that, but he’s off to a good start.
The quarterback, receivers, and tight ends are all better. Stevenson is healthy and in the best shape of his career. The offensive line isn’t being coached by Matt Patricia or Adrian Klemm. The defense’s ceiling might be lower without Barmore and Matthew Judon, but Gonzalez is back, and Keion White looks like a breakout star.
None of this is to say the Patriots are bound for the playoffs. A top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is still a realistic outcome. New England could easily lose its next three games and begin October with a 1-3 record.
But the worst team in the NFL? Please.
That take never made any sense and shouldn’t be uttered again.