Few believe the New England Patriots can beat the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. New England has arguably the worst roster in the NFL, whereas Cincinnati is primed for a Super Bowl run. Plus, Jerod Mayo will be making his head coaching debut on the road.
However, games aren’t played on paper, where the Patriots are at a clear disadvantage, or at sportsbooks, where the Bengals are 8.5-point favorites.
Does New England have a realistic shot at scoring a major Week 1 upset, or will Cincinnati coast to victory? Pro Football Network’s Patriots beat reporter Dakota Randall and Bengals beat reporter Jay Morrison collaborated on a preview of Sunday’s matchup.
Dakota Randall’s Patriots-Bengals Preview
How Do Patriots Match Up With Bengals?
I came perilously close to picking the Patriots in this game but ultimately couldn’t pull the trigger. More on my score prediction in a bit.
Am I crazy? Probably, but I actually believe the Patriots match up relatively well against the Bengals, especially on defense.
Let’s start with Ja’Marr Chase, who returned to practice this week after punting on training camp amid his desire for a new contract. At this point, it seems unlikely we’ll get an all-systems-go Chase in Week 1. All signs point toward the star receiver either sitting, being on a strict snap count, or showing significant rust.
If Chase plays, the Patriots likely will give Christian Gonzalez the 1-on-1 assignment while doubling Tee Higgins with Jonathan Jones and safety help. Or they could go with the reverse approach.
Either way, New England has the defensive backs to limit Chase and Higgins, who combined for just six catches for 63 yards (31 yards on one play) in the second half when the two teams met in 2022, per TruMedia. The Patriots didn’t even have Gonzalez then; their top corners were Jones and Myles Bryant.
New PFN #Bengals Podcast!@ByJayMorrison and I hand out our Bengals season predictions. Then, @DakRandall joins the show to break down Patriots vs. Bengals.https://t.co/NF01aJ3JgZ
— Dallas Robinson (@DallasDRobinson) September 3, 2024
As for tight end Mike Gesicki, the Patriots are well aware of his flaws. They could get in trouble if Gesicki gets matched up against a linebacker, but safety Kyle Dugger will likely shadow the former Patriot. New England isn’t worried about Gesicki.
The Bengals’ running game, led by Chase Brown and Zack Moss, could be a problem, especially given Cincy’s improved offensive line and the absence of star defensive tackle Christian Barmore. But the Patriots have excellent run defenders in Dugger, Davon Godchaux, Jabrill Peppers, Ja’Whaun Bentley, and Anfernee Jennings.
The game, like most games, will be won or lost in the trenches. The score could be close if New England’s front seven holds up against the run, but the Patriots likely won’t get over the hump if their pass rush doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain.
Joe Burrow is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks for myriad reasons, including how quickly he gets rid of the ball. Per TruMedia, Burrow last season got rid of the ball faster than league average an NFL-best 79.5% of the time among 28 QBs with 300+ attempts. He ranked third in the same category over the previous two seasons.
Can the Patriots speed up Burrow without Barmore and Matthew Judon? They’ll need players such as Keion White and Joshua Uche to win matchups against Trent Brown and Orlando Brown, as well as players such as Bentley, Peppers, and Daniel Ekuale to get home on schemed-up pressures. It’s a tall order, but the Patriots have the personnel to get it done.
Now let’s talk about that Patriots offense.
New England’s offense has a clear path toward staying in the game: establishing the run, hitting on play-action shot plays, and avoiding catastrophic turnovers from starter Jacoby Brissett, who’s among the more careful quarterbacks in the league.
The Patriots also could benefit from multiple coaches and players, including Brissett and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, having experience against the Bengals while with the Cleveland Browns. That kind of thing obviously works both ways, but you could argue it favors the Patriots.
But the big problem — and the reason I ultimately can’t pick the Patriots — is there’s no reason to believe the offensive line will limit sacks and pre-snap penalties that force the offense to play behind the chains. To assume the opposite outcome would be to make an uneducated guess.
Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is known for his exotic blitz packages. That could spell trouble for a Patriots O-line that might be without two starters (Sidy Sow and Vederian Lowe) and still is figuring out its best five-man lineup.
“Those guys, they send — whether it’s the star, the nickel, the corner coming off the edge, the linebacker — they send people from everywhere,” Mayo said Wednesday when asked about Anarumo. “They’re very fundamentally sound.”
Furthermore, if the Patriots are to upset the Bengals, they’ll need to win on the margins. They can’t afford any mistakes on special teams.
New England’s special teams were among the worst in the league the last two seasons, and there currently is zero evidence to suggest first-year coordinator Jeremy Springer will make a difference. We just don’t know.
If you consider just the matchups, you could squint and see a Patriots team capable of beating the Bengals on Sunday. But the primary reason to believe in New England has little to do with either team’s roster.
Are Patriots Getting Bengals at the Perfect Time?
The Patriots would be screwed if this game were played later in the season. But Week 1 might be the perfect time to get the Bengals — or any team, for that matter.
Since 2020, Cincinnati has been 1-7 in the first two weeks of the season, tied with the Minnesota Vikings for the worst record in the NFL. In fact, the first month overall has been a struggle for the Bengals since Zac Taylor took over as head coach.
Check out how the Bengals have started in each year of Taylor’s tenure:
2019: 0-4 (lost opener)
2020: 1-2-1 (lost opener)
2021: 3-1 (overtime win in opener)
2022: 2-2 (overtime loss in opener)
2023: 1-3 (lost opener)
Obviously, there’s context. Burrow wasn’t around in 2019 and was a rookie in 2020. He also missed all of training camp in 2022 due to appendicitis and most of the 2023 training camp due to a calf strain. Predictably, Burrow wasn’t on top of his game early in both seasons. He was a full-go this summer, and that could make all the difference.
Nevertheless, Week 1 historically is a good spot for underdogs, especially during an era of lighter, less demanding training camps. Some teams just aren’t ready to go.
Patriots fans need to look no further than last season’s opener, which was played at Gillette Stadium. New England entered as 7.5-point underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles, who were the far better team on paper and in reality.
However, when you removed the hyperbole and considered Nick Sirianni’s then-preference for lighter training camps, an upset seemed possible. And New England nearly pulled it off, ultimately losing by five points in a game it should’ve won.
The circumstances surrounding that game obviously differ from the context of Sunday’s matchup. And I’ll let Jay dive into whether Taylor runs a tough training camp because he was there every day this summer. Regardless, I can say that Mayo ran a very tough camp, tougher than anything we saw from Bill Belichick in recent years.
Still, even the oddsmakers might be nervous about this game. In the last 10 seasons, underdogs of 8+ points are 9-5 against the spread in Week 1, the best of any week.
So, you shouldn’t expect the Patriots to beat the Bengals on Sunday — but you should expect the game to be close.
Jay Morrison’s Patriots-Bengals Preview
Can the Bengals Stop Their Week 1 Skid?
There are multiple ways to view the woes the Bengals have had in openers under Taylor.
You can argue they should be 0-5 instead of 1-4 after running back Dalvin Cook’s uncharacteristic fumble in overtime with the Minnesota Vikings in game-winning field-goal range was the only thing that cracked the door for that Bengals win.
But look at the woulda-coulda-shoulda elements in the losses. A phantom push-off call on A.J. Green’s game-winning touchdown with 12 seconds to go in 2020. A season-ending injury to the long snapper in 2022, followed by bad snaps by the backup on a missed game-winning PAT with no time remaining and a missed game-winning field goal in overtime.
Cincinnati also went into Seattle as 11-point underdogs in Taylor’s debut in 2019 and had the lead in the fourth quarter.
That game, of course, was pre-Burrow. And as is the case with everything about the Bengals, Burrow is at the center of the Week 1 issues.
Asked what he remembers most about his first NFL opener in 2020, he said, “That I played like s–t.”
Play that on loop for 2022 (career-high five turnovers) and 2023 (14 of 31 for 82 yards).
Burrow missed almost all of training camp in 2022 due to an emergency appendectomy that saw him lose, then regain, in short order, 20 pounds.
Last year, he went down with a calf injury in the second practice of training camp. Although he returned in time for the 24-3 clunker in Cleveland to open the season, Burrow wasn’t right until Week 5.
This year, he’s been fully healthy despite having season-ending wrist surgery in November. Coaches and teammates have raved about how locked in Burrow is, with DC Anarumo saying, “Joe looks like Joe times 10” from his vantage point on the other side of the line of scrimmage.
If the Bengals lose this one as the biggest favorite on the board in Week 1, there will be no “yeah, but” to be had. And that’s with or without Chase, who is expected to play despite missing all of training camp as part of a contract hold-in.
Can the Patriots Run Through the Bengals?
There is a hole in the middle of Cincinnati’s defense. It’s figurative and more of an absence of presence after DJ Reader left in free agency.
The Bengals have more than enough defensive tackles to run out there Sunday against a beleaguered New England offensive line. But all of them are 3-techniques who specialize in rushing the passer.
Cincinnati’s attempt to fill Reader’s shoes and swallow double teams will be in street clothes, with rookie third-round nose tackle McKinnley Jackson hurting his knee early in camp and landing on injured reserve.
But Anarumo believes the return of safety Vonn Bell to be his coach on the field and traffic cop is a huge step toward fixing the issues.
Given Brissett’s limits as a passer and Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson’s abilities as runners, everyone knows what’s coming Sunday. The Patriots will try to run through the belly of the Bengals’ defense over and over again, eating clock and keeping Burrow on the sideline.
The Bengals allowed more than 140 yards rushing in eight games last year and were gashed for more than 170 on four occasions. If they let New England’s ground game get going, things could be uncomfortably tight inside Paycor Stadium in the fourth quarter.
Patriots-Bengals Predictions
Dakota’s Prediction
Bengals 21, Patriots 18. At the end of the day, I’d be assuming far too much to believe New England’s O-line will hold up, its special teams will be organized, and Mayo will hit the ground running in managing game situations. There are too many key variables.
Jay’s Prediction
Bengals 27, Patriots 20: I expect Cincinnati’s defense to be vastly improved in 2024, but I also expect it to take a little time. You don’t rebuild a 31st-ranked unit overnight.
The Patriots will move the ball, and they will score. But when Burrow is focused on football and not rehab, 27 points feels like the floor for this team’s capabilities, even against a really good defense.