There are two ways to play fantasy football. You can play it safe, or you can swing for the fences. It’s always risky to chase outliers, but outliers are how we separate from our competitors.
With that in mind, we’re going through bold fantasy takes for every NFL team, with this installment looking at the Detriot Lions.
Detroit Lions: 3 Lions Finish No. 1 Overall at Their Positions
It’s almost impossible for this prediction to come to fruition. There’s only one football. For three Lions to get there without one being the quarterback, they would all need elite volume and elite efficiency.
Last year, though, Sam LaPorta averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game, just 0.5 PPG behind overall TE1 Travis Kelce. Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 20.7 ppg, just 3.0 PPG behind overall WR1 CeeDee Lamb. Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 16.1 PPG; he’s the toughest one because of the presence of David Montgomery. Gibbs did not come close to Christian McCaffrey’s 24.5 ppg.
How does it happen? LaPorta and St. Brown can have mostly repeats of their 2023 seasons and get there. They just need the league average to drop a bit. Gibbs is trickier, but here’s the path. What if David Montgomery gets hurt, allowing Gibbs to see a larger workload?
In this case, the increase in volume would not impact his efficiency. He then achieves his goal of being a 1,000/1,000 player en route to a historic year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Profile
What’s not to like? St. Brown has seen his volume and yards per catch increase every season of his career, a rare combination and one that projects as sustainable given that the Lions are returning much of the same offense. Last year, that unit was top five in both passing yards and points per game.
When he first broke out, there were concerns about his ability to consistently win routes as defenses geared their attention in his direction. He’s more than eliminated those concerns, as he dominated for the entirety of 2023, capping it with a four-game stretch in which he caught at least six passes for 90 yards and a touchdown each week.
As if we needed more proof, St. Brown hauled in at least seven passes in all three of Detroit’s playoff games. Long story short, he has developed a connection with Jared Goff that is only getting stronger with time. Given the young skill players around him, this Detroit offense projects as a potent one for years to come.
Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Amon-Ra St. Brown right here.
Sam LaPorta Fantasy Profile
Fantasy managers should not draft rookie tight ends because it is the most difficult position to transition from college to the pros. Therefore, tight ends take longer to break out and rarely produce as rookies.
History suggests this is still true. But no one told LaPorta.
LaPorta averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game in his rookie season. It was the greatest performance by a rookie tight end in fantasy football history.
LaPorta caught 86 passes for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. At 6’3″ and 245 pounds, LaPorta is going to remain a top end zone target for QB Jared Goff for years to come.
Outside of a select few generational players like Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, and Rob Gronkowski, to name the more recent ones, tight ends are typically touchdown-or-bust options. That will remain the case this season. LaPorta’s rookie usage suggests he will be one of the few who isn’t.
LaPorta earned a 21.1% target share last season. He was targeted on 24% of his routes, fifth among tight ends. LaPorta’s 1.78 yards per route run was sixth in the league, but he only averaged 7.4 yards per target, 13th in the league at the position among qualified players. That means there’s plenty of room to grow.
The Lions did not make any meaningful additions to their offensive skill position players. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains locked in as their WR1. He will lead the team in target share. There’s absolutely no threat to LaPorta being second once again.
In fact, the lack of additions suggests LaPorta has a decent chance to increase his target share this season.
Remember, for as well as LaPorta played last season, he was still only a rookie. He’s getting better and is nowhere near his prime. It would be a major shock if we didn’t get a 16-point-per-game season from LaPorta within the next couple of years.
It could happen as soon as 2024.
Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Sam LaPorta right here.
Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Profile
Although the Detroit Lions selected Gibbs in the top half of the first round, they never made him their feature back in his rookie year. That makes what he accomplished all the more impressive.
To open the year, Gibbs wasn’t even part of a timeshare — he was a pure backup. Gibbs spent the first month of the season firmly behind David Montgomery. It makes the fact that he reached 16.1 fantasy points per game even more impressive.
Gibbs only touched the ball 234 times. His 51.2% opportunity share was outside the top 30. For as great of a receiver as he is, Gibbs’ 14.1% target share was ninth. The volume simply wasn’t there.
Fortunately, Gibbs is one of the most explosive and dynamic running backs in recent memory. He averaged 5.4 yards per touch, eighth in the league, and evaded tackles per touch at a 23.9% clip, ninth in the league. An astounding 8.2% of his carries went for 15+ yards, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
It’s nice to think about what could be if Gibbs saw a full workload, but I’m not sure we want that. At 5’9”, 199 pounds, Gibbs is not built to touch the ball 350 times. I think his efficiency would suffer if he did.
Historically, featured running backs weigh at least 209 pounds, although I believe we’re going to see more and more smaller RBs become high-level fantasy producers in the modern NFL. However, I don’t think it will be because of volume. We’re going to see guys who are built like Gibbs excel on 230-250 touches.
The Lions are running it back with their RB duo in 2024. We should expect a similar split, with Gibbs seeing a workload more in line with how he was used later in the season after establishing himself as worthy of increased touches.
Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Jahmyr Gibbs right here.