It’s impossible to come out of the gate firing more than Sam LaPorta did as a rookie. Now, fantasy football managers have to pay a hefty price to draft the Detroit Lions TE.
Is the next great Iowa tight end worth his lofty cost in fantasy drafts?
Should You Select Sam LaPorta at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 25th Overall (TE2)
- Rookie Breakout: Sam LaPorta had an outstanding rookie season, averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game, the best by a rookie tight end in fantasy history. He caught 86 passes for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns.
- Consistency and Upside: LaPorta’s 21.1% target share and 1.78 yards per route run were among the top in the league for tight ends. Despite being targeted on 24% of his routes, he averaged only 7.4 yards per target, indicating room for improvement.
- Role in Detroit’s Offense: With no significant additions to the Lions’ offensive skill positions, LaPorta remains the clear No. 2 target behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. His role as a top red zone target for QB Jared Goff is solidified.
- Future Potential: LaPorta is still developing and hasn’t reached his prime yet. A 16-point-per-game season is expected within the next couple of years, possibly as soon as 2024.
- ADP Analysis: LaPorta’s current ADP around No. 23 overall places him at the 2/3 turn in drafts. This opportunity cost is high, as you could be passing on a high WR2 or low WR1. While LaPorta’s potential to match WR2 production at the tight end position is intriguing, it’s crucial to evaluate the board carefully before making this choice.
- Final Verdict: LaPorta is justifiably the top-ranked tight end, but drafting him at his ADP requires consideration. If he falls to the middle of the third round, he’s a valuable pick. However, in the late second round, it may be wiser to prioritize certain wide receivers with higher upside.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Sam LaPorta
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
27) Mike Evans, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28) Joe Mixon, RB | Houston Texans
29) Davante Adams, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
30) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
31) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
32) Sam LaPorta, TE | Detroit Lions
33) Josh Allen, QB | Buffalo Bills
34) Travis Kelce, TE | Kansas City Chiefs
35) James Cook, RB | Buffalo Bills
36) Jalen Hurts, QB | Philadelphia Eagles
37) Patrick Mahomes, QB | Kansas City Chiefs
LaPorta’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Fantasy managers should not draft rookie tight ends because it is the most difficult position to transition from college to the pros. Therefore, tight ends take longer to break out and rarely produce as rookies.
History suggests this is still true. But no one told LaPorta.
LaPorta averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game in his rookie season. It was the greatest performance by a rookie tight end in fantasy football history.
LaPorta caught 86 passes for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. At 6’3″ and 245 pounds, LaPorta is going to remain a top end zone target for QB Jared Goff for years to come.
#Lions TE Sam LaPorta has officially broken the #NFL record for receptions by a rookie! 🔥
Keith Jackson recorded 81 catches in 1988.#OnePride
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 7, 2024
Outside of a select few generational players like Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, and Rob Gronkowski, to name the more recent ones, tight ends are typically touchdown-or-bust options. That will remain the case this season. LaPorta’s rookie usage suggests he will be one of the few who isn’t.
LaPorta earned a 21.1% target share last season. He was targeted on 24% of his routes, fifth among tight ends. LaPorta’s 1.78 yards per route run was sixth in the league, but he only averaged 7.4 yards per target, 13th in the league at the position among qualified players. That means there’s plenty of room to grow.
The Lions did not make any meaningful additions to their offensive skill position players. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains locked in as their WR1. He will lead the team in target share. There’s absolutely no threat to LaPorta being second once again.
In fact, the lack of additions suggests LaPorta has a decent chance to increase his target share this season.
Remember, for as well as LaPorta played last season, he was still only a rookie. He’s getting better and is nowhere near his prime. It would be a major shock if we didn’t get a 16-point-per-game season from LaPorta within the next couple of years.
It could happen as soon as 2024.
Is LaPorta a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
LaPorta is very much justified in being the top-ranked tight end. He should be the first tight end off the board in most leagues. I have Travis Kelce ahead of him, but we’re talking about splitting hairs here.
Deciding whether LaPorta is worth drafting at his ADP will be determined by positional value.
With an ADP around No. 23 overall, LaPorta is going at the 2/3 turn. At that price, the opportunity cost of taking LaPorta is a high WR2, possibly even a low WR1.
Yes, there are also running backs you can take, but the running back landscape is weird, and I’m telling you it’s OK to take the No. 1 tight end over them.
A typical high WR2 will produce around 15-16 fantasy points per game. It won’t take much in the way of progression for LaPorta to reach those numbers. That means you can get the same production from LaPorta that you’d get from a wide receiver, except LaPorta plays tight end, giving you a greater edge.
Earlier in the Summer, I said the following about LaPorta: “If LaPorta’s ADP creeps into the back end of the second round, I will be much more hesitant. While LaPorta is great, I don’t see him being able to hit 17-18 points per game. The WRs going in the second round have a higher upside, making them more worth it.” Well, here we are.
In the middle of the third, if you can put a high WR2 at tight end, that’s very much worth considering. You will definitely see LaPorta make it to the middle of the third round in some instances. But in the late second, the board would have to look a very specific way for me to push the button on a tight end over certain of the WRs.