Jahmyr Gibbs’ Fantasy Profile: The Lions RB Is a Big Play Waiting to Happen Even After Injury

Being undersized and mired in a timeshare did not stop Jahmyr Gibbs from posting RB1 numbers last season. Looking like one of the next great NFL running backs; is there more to unlock with Gibbs in fantasy football?

Should You Select Jahmyr Gibbs at His Current ADP?

PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 12th Overall (RB6)

• RB1 Potential: Jahmyr Gibbs delivered RB1 numbers in 2023 despite being undersized and part of a timeshare. His explosive playmaking ability and efficiency make him one of the most exciting young running backs in the NFL, but his volume remains a concern.
• 2024 Outlook: While Gibbs has the potential to take on a larger role, it’s hard to justify ranking him ahead of proven workhorses like Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. Gibbs’ value lies in his efficiency rather than sheer volume, which could limit his ceiling compared to other top RBs.
• ADP Comparison: Gibbs is currently being drafted as the RB6, 12th overall. This places him behind Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, both of whom are likely to see more touches. However, Gibbs’ talent and explosiveness make him an appealing pick in the back half of Round 1, especially if you’re targeting a high-upside RB.
• Efficiency Over Volume: In 2023, Gibbs averaged 5.4 yards per touch and had the second-highest rate of carries going for 15+ yards in the NFL. While he may not be built for a 350-touch workload, Gibbs can still produce elite numbers with 230-250 touches.
• Final Verdict: Gibbs’ current ADP reflects his potential and efficiency rather than volume. If you’re looking for a running back with explosive upside, Gibbs is worth considering at his ADP. While he may not offer the same workload as other top RBs, his ability to make the most of his touches makes him a valuable asset in fantasy football.

PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jahmyr Gibbs

Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. 

5) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
6) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
11) Garrett Wilson, WR | New York Jets
12) Jonathan Taylor, RB | Indianapolis Colts
13) Saquon Barkley, RB | Philadelphia Eagles
14) Puka Nacua, WR | Los Angeles Rams
15) Kyren Williams, RB | Los Angeles Rams

Gibbs’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season

Update August 12: Gibbs reportedly suffered a leg injury during practice. The talented RB is a borderline first-round pick on average in PPR leagues right now and that makes every injury newsworthy. While it doesn’t sound serious, if something like this lingers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see managers in your league avoid any “risk” and look elsewhere.

Pounce.

Despite the narrative of David Montgomery being Detroit’s thunder to Gibbs’ lightning, the red zone work actually leaned in favor of Gibbs after he worked into his full time role.
The second year back could very well end this season as a Tier 1 back and any dip in his ADP could allow you to build a super team from the jump.

As for Montgomery, his value is about right. He’s a late fifth-round pick, priced behind the bellows but ahead of the committee types. You’re going to need him to score and any increase in usage obviously helps those odds, but I’d avoid moving him up much on your draft board barring a significant change in tone surrounding this injury.

– PFN Fantasy Analyst Kyle Soppe

Although the Detroit Lions selected Gibbs in the top half of the first round, they never made him their feature back in his rookie year. That makes what he accomplished all the more impressive.

To open the year, Gibbs wasn’t even part of a timeshare — he was a pure backup. Gibbs spent the first month of the season firmly behind David Montgomery. It makes the fact that he reached 16.1 fantasy points per game even more impressive.

Gibbs only touched the ball 234 times. His 51.2% opportunity share was outside the top 30. For as great of a receiver as he is, Gibbs’ 14.1% target share was ninth. The volume simply wasn’t there.

Fortunately, Gibbs is one of the most explosive and dynamic running backs in recent memory. He averaged 5.4 yards per touch, eighth in the league, and evaded tackles per touch at a 23.9% clip, ninth in the league. An astounding 8.2% of his carries went for 15+ yards, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Jahmyr Gibbs runs and stiff-arms his way into the end zone to give the #Lions the lead!

➡ 5 plays
➡ 75 yards
➡ 1 minute, 57 seconds

Detroit leads, 24-17.pic.twitter.com/oXSQ3Ey8gU

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 21, 2024

It’s nice to think about what could be if Gibbs saw a full workload, but I’m not sure we want that. At 5’9”, 199 pounds, Gibbs is not built to touch the ball 350 times. I think his efficiency would suffer if he did.

Historically, featured running backs weigh at least 209 pounds, although I believe we’re going to see more and more smaller RBs become high-level fantasy producers in the modern NFL. However, I don’t think it will be because of volume. We’re going to see guys who are built like Gibbs excel on 230-250 touches.

The Lions are running it back with their RB duo in 2024. We should expect a similar split, with Gibbs seeing a workload more in line with how he was used later in the season after establishing himself as worthy of increased touches.

Is Gibbs a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?

When the 2023 season ended, my initial thought was Gibbs would be RB2 in 2024. But as much as I love watching him play and love his talent, volume does remain king.

There’s always a chance Montgomery gets hurt, and we see Gibbs touch the ball 20 times a game. However, we can’t and shouldn’t predict injury. Assuming health, it’s hard to justify Gibbs over the likes of Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall.

I’m two RB spots ahead of ADP on Gibbs, ranking him as my RB4. He’s going at No. 13, behind Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor.

I understand the argument for taking Barkley and Taylor ahead of Gibbs. They are proven workhorses without a very capable backfield mate. Both will touch the ball considerably more than Gibbs. If you want to take them over Gibbs, I wouldn’t fight you on it, but I’m taking Gibbs.

If I’m picking in the back half of Round 1, I anticipate eyeing up Gibbs frequently, and you should, too.