Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a productive fantasy football option since given the opportunity and doesn’t appear likely to slow down any time soon. The former fourth-round pick out of USC has given managers everything they could possibly want through his first three NFL seasons, and that makes him deserving of his first-round ADP.
But just how high should you feel comfortable selecting the Detroit Lions WR1?
Should You Select Amon-Ra St. Brown at His Current ADP?
In early drafts, St. Brown is coming off the board with the eighth overall pick (WR5). I’d argue that is more of a floor ADP than an expectation, as I have him ranked one spot higher positionally (ahead of Justin Jefferson) and would slide him ahead of the non-Christian McCaffrey running backs (fifth overall).
He has shown great consistency by ranking as a top-10 receiver in both catches and yards in consecutive seasons, flashing the type of scoring potential late last season that gives him the path to be the top fantasy receiver in 2024.
- Seasons 1-2: 11 touchdowns on 196 catches
- Season 3: 10 touchdowns on 119 catches
I like Jameson Williams as much as anyone in 2024, but I very much believe that there is room for his breakout alongside continued dominance from St. Brown.
Jared Goff finds Amon-Ra St. Brown who breaks is off for 4️⃣4️⃣ yards ❕ pic.twitter.com/v6NnIUSQrS
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 31, 2023
We know Williams has the tools to threaten defenses downfield, and while St. Brown is capable of doing that, the fact that he hasn’t had a catch gain more than 30 yards in 22 of his past 26 games, including the playoffs, leads me to believe that his bottom line won’t be impacted in a major way if Williams takes the step I’m projecting.
In 2022, St. Brown scored all of his touchdowns at home (57.7% of his yards came in front of the Detroit faithful as well). We know that Goff can be a different quarterback at home than on the road, so this was a minor concern of mine entering 2023 — a concern I no longer have after St. Brown found the end zone seven times on the road.
They say you can only lose a draft in the first round. You’re not doing that if you select St. Brown.
St. Brown’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
What’s not to like? St. Brown has seen his volume and yards per catch increase every season of his career, a rare combination and one that projects as sustainable given that the Lions are returning much of the same offense. Last year, that unit was top five in both passing yards and points per game.
When he first broke out, there were concerns about his ability to consistently win routes as defenses geared their attention in his direction. He’s more than eliminated those concerns, as he dominated for the entirety of 2023, capping it with a four-game stretch in which he caught at least six passes for 90 yards and a touchdown each week.
As if we needed more proof, St. Brown hauled in at least seven passes in all three of Detroit’s playoff games. Long story short, he has developed a connection with Jared Goff that is only getting stronger with time. Given the young skill players around him, this Detroit offense projects as a potent one for years to come.