The key to the Carolina Panthers in 2024 is sophomore QB Bryce Young taking a step forward. To help him with that, the Panthers drafted WR Xavier Legette in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. What does Legette’s fantasy football projection say about his chances to be an impactful player this season?
Xavier Legette’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 7.8
- Receptions: 44
- Receiving Yards: 661
- Receiving TDs: 3.7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Legette This Year?
It’s very easy to paint a negative picture of the Panthers’ rookie. In his first 41 collegiate games, Legette caught a total of 42 receptions for 423 yards and five touchdowns.
If he had entered the NFL Draft after his senior year, it’s hard to imagine a single team would have even bothered to look at Legette. That’s some of the worst production over four years you will ever see.
Legette is already 23 years old and didn’t produce an even remotely impactful college season until his fifth year. However, that final season was otherworldly.
Legette amassed 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns on 71 receptions in 12 games. He was easily one of the best wide receivers in the nation in 2023. But did he dominate because he became really good at football? Or was it because he was 22 years old, playing against a bunch of players younger than him?
It’s very difficult to reconcile how bad Legette was in his first four seasons with how incredible he was in his fifth. There’s certainly a world where he just figured it out late and is now off the races, set to become a top NFL wide receiver. There’s also a world where his fifth-year senior season was just a fluke.
Adding to the challenging evaluation is Legette’s situation and opportunity, both of which are hard to gauge. Young was the No. 1 overall pick last year. It’s certainly too soon to write him off as a bust, but if he struggles again this year, he’ll be firmly headed in that direction.
If Young doesn’t take a step forward, Legette’s offensive situation is going to be a poor one. The Panthers scored just 20 offensive touchdowns last season.
Then there’s the matter of how much opportunity Legette can earn. Diontae Johnson is clearly the WR1. Can Legette take the WR2 job from 34-year-old Adam Thielen, who completely fell off over the second half of 2023? He certainly should be able to.
I projected Legette for a 14.8% target share, which is third on the team behind Thielen. However, Legette’s full-season projection of 7.18 fantasy points per game is not as bad as it seems.
It’s highly unlikely Legette makes an impact right away. If he does emerge, it will likely be your classic second-half surge. That means even if I’m close regarding Legette’s projection, it could entail him averaging no more than a couple of points per game over the first half before becoming a weekly WR3 in the second half. If you draft Legette, that’s the outcome you’re hoping for.
With a WR53 ADP, the cost to find out if Legette is good is low. The only thing you’re giving up is whoever else you were going to take with the final spot on your bench. There’s no downside.
I’m more in the camp that Legette won’t pan out. But as always, I’m open to being wrong.
Legette is certainly a better dart to throw than drafting some veteran with a known and capped ceiling. I have him ranked as my WR66, which is well below his ADP, even this far down the rankings. He comes out as the WR73 in PFN’s consensus projections, which isn’t a large difference this late in drafts. Notwithstanding the above, Legette is a fine chance to take as your WR6 in fantasy drafts.
