Nobody likes to think about the worst-case scenario, especially with their favorite NFL team. But as any fan can tell you, some seasons feel like they just keep getting worse.
Regressions happen all the time in football. Significant losses in the offseason, injuries, suspensions, or simply not playing well are common reasons teams can worsen from one year to another.
To prepare for the worst-case scenario for each NFL team, let’s predict the floor for each squad going into the 2025 season. Note that these are not record predictions, but rather, a prediction of the worst possible record every team could attain this year.
Every NFL Team’s Floor in 2025
Arizona Cardinals: 5-12
The Arizona Cardinals finished 8-9Â in 2024, and they’re an improved team on paper. Logic indicates they should be firmly in playoff contention in 2025. However, there’s a big question mark at risk.
Kyler Murray played in every game last year, but he missed a combined 18 games from 2021 to 2023. His run-ins with injury derailed Arizona’s momentum, as they went a combined 4-14Â without him at quarterback. If those injury issues return, the Cardinals could see similar results in that worst-case scenario.
Atlanta Falcons: 6-11
Michael Penix Jr. takes the reins as quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons after Kirk Cousins followed up a 6-3 start by going 1-4 in the final five games before he got benched. That collapse can be attributed to poor quarterback play, but it’s also a team game at the end of the day.
Penix has just three NFL starts to his name, so he’s largely an unknown at this stage. Assuming a learning curve for him in his first season as a full-time starter is the same. That and their poor late-season play could see their record take a step back in 2025.
Baltimore Ravens: 10-7
In the last six years, the Baltimore Ravens have reached double-digit wins five times. The only exception was in 2021, when Lamar Jackson missed five games. The evidence is clear — the Ravens are a serious contender as long as he’s their quarterback.
Their worst-case scenario would be if Jackson missed time due to injury. If he goes down, a backup quarterback would inherit a young offensive line that’s still fairly unproven and a passing attack without an elite WR2 option. That could see the Ravens give up the AFC North crown.
Buffalo Bills: 11-6
The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East five years in a row and made the playoffs six years straight. At this point, the only way they hit their worst-case scenario is if QB Josh Allen gets hurt.
Even then, the Bills have a few difficult games on their schedule that could be up for grabs. Their division doesn’t figure to be tough, but they face the entire AFC North, as well as other teams outside the division like Philadelphia and Kansas City. They could take a step back if those games don’t go their way, but they’re still a serious contender either way.
Carolina Panthers: 4-13
There’s reason to be optimistic if you’re a fan of the Carolina Panthers. QB Bryce Young improved down the stretch last year, and they just spent a lot of money to improve their defense. The roster is still a big work in progress, however.
The Panthers used a first-round pick on Tetairoa McMillan, but he’s the only major upgrade they made on offense this offseason. The defensive line looks much better, but the secondary is thin outside Jaycee Horn. With those factors, there’s always the possibility that Carolina reverts to their level of play from the first half of 2024.
Chicago Bears: 5-12
In theory, the Chicago Bears should be a much better team this year. Ben Johnson takes over as their head coach, and Caleb Williams steps into Year 2 with a much better offensive line and deeper group of weapons than he had last year. Improvement seems likely, but there’s reason to think their worst-case scenario could play out.
The Bears have the second-hardest schedule in the NFL going into 2025. Playing in a rugged NFC North doesn’t do them any favors. We’ve seen highly-touted coordinators fail as head coaches in the past. If Johnson’s success doesn’t translate over, and if they fail to pick up multiple wins in the division, it could be another losing year in Chicago.
Cincinnati Bengals: 7-10
Cincinnati Bengals fans breathed a huge sigh of relief this offseason, knowing they’ve locked down Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins for the future. That group should keep them competitive, but it might not be enough to make them a contender again.
there was a stretch last year where Joe Burrow became the first QB in NFL history with 3+ TD passes and 250+ passing yards in 7 straight games
the Bengals went just 4-3 in those games because the defense allowed 44, 37, 35 and 34 points in the losses
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 8, 2025
With one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, the Bengals relied on elite play on offense to stay competitive in some games. They didn’t make any major signings in free agency to improve their defense, and it could get worse if they trade Trey Hendrickson. The defense will make or break their 2025 season.
Cleveland Browns: 1-16
The four-man quarterback competition should be an indication enough that 2025 figures to be a rough season for the Cleveland Browns. None of all their options to replace the injured Deshaun Watson seem particularly inspiring as immediate answers at QB.
While the Browns have some good players, their offensive firepower is severely lacking. The defense took a slight step back in 2024, and unless that unit performs at an elite level this year, they’ll likely find themselves in the basement of not just the AFC North but potentially the entire NFL.
Dallas Cowboys: 7-10
After three straight seasons at 12-5, the Dallas Cowboys fell back to Earth in 2024 with a 7-10 record. Dak Prescott only being able to play in eight games certainly hurt their chances of making the playoffs, much less contending for a spot.
It remains to be seen if Brian Schottenheimer will be an upgrade at head coach over Mike McCarthy. If Prescott stays healthy, the Cowboys have an explosive offense and a defense with multiple impact players. Prescott missing time again, however, would limit the offense severely and put a lot of pressure on the defense to carry the load.
Denver Broncos: 7-10
Expectations weren’t very high for the Denver Broncos in 2024, but they surprised everyone by going 10-7Â and making it to the playoffs in Bo Nix’s rookie year. With him and Sean Payton leading the charge on offense, they should be in good shape again in 2025.
RELATED: Broncos Predicted To Select 18-TD WR in 2026 NFL Draft To Elevate Bo Nix’s Supporting Cast
However, the Broncos went 2-7 against teams that finished above .500, with one of those wins coming against a Kansas City team that benched most of its starters in Week 18. If Denver doesn’t prove it can clean up shop against the league’s heavyweights, it could be in for a rude awakening.
Detroit Lions: 9-8
On paper, the Detroit Lions have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. They’re coming off consecutive NFC North championships, their offense scored the most points in the league last year, and they lost a few key contributors this offseason. It’s a safe assumption they have a winning record in 2025.
However, they lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs and took multiple assistant coaches with them. Dan Campbell remains the head coach, but there is a different coaching staff in Detroit now. A worst-case scenario would see the new coaches fail to pick up where Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn left off.
Green Bay Packers: 8-9
In the two seasons Jordan Love has been the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback, they’ve finished above .500 and made the playoffs. While they haven’t advanced to the NFC Championship yet, they feel like a safe bet to perform well consistently.
The Packers’ biggest concern revolves around the secondary, as their cornerback room is extremely thin. They face an intimidating gauntlet in a competitive NFC North that should become more competitive with Chicago’s offseason moves. Opponents like Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia could also give them a tough time out of the division.
Houston Texans: 8-9
Because of a weak AFC South and the superiority of their roster, the Houston Texans seem like a safe bet to win the division. That said, they’re hardly invincible, and a breakout team within their division could surpass them should that situation arise.
Houston’s offensive line was a major issue in 2024. After trading Laremy Tunsil this offseason, it could be an even bigger problem in 2025. An inability to give CJ Stroud clean pockets to work with could limit their offensive output and leave them reeling in close games down the stretch.
Indianapolis Colts: 5-12
Despite inconsistent quarterback play, the Indianapolis Colts have remained competitive in the AFC. In Shane Steichen’s first two seasons as their head coach, they have a combined record of 17-17: dead even.
There’s an ongoing quarterback battle between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones for the starting job in Indianapolis. Generally, teams without stable quarterback play are at a larger risk of losing games in today’s pass-heavy NFL. Inconsistency on that front could hold the Colts back in 2025 if they aren’t careful.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-15
The Jacksonville Jaguars made the bold move to trade up for two-way superstar prospect Travis Hunter in the 2025 NFL Draft. It’s a fun move that gives them an incredible talent, but the massive price they paid to get him means they didn’t get to address other glaring holes on their roster.
Even after having the second-worst Defense+ grade in the league in 2024, the Jaguars didn’t make many moves to improve that side of the ball. Throw in an offense that was below-average last year, and you have the possibility of disaster if they don’t get things together.
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6
Since Patrick Mahomes took over as their starting quarterback in 2018, the Kansas City Chiefs haven’t finished below 11-6 in a regular season. That feels like a safe worst-case scenario to provide for one of the NFL’s consistent powerhouses.
The Chiefs went 15-2 last year, and one of those losses came in Week 18. They lost Joe Thuney and Tershawn Wharton this offseason, but their core on both sides of the ball is mostly intact. They could also drop a few of the toss-up games on their schedule, but double-digit wins feels like a lock for them.
Las Vegas Raiders: 4-13
The Las Vegas Raiders went 4-13 last season. Since then, they hired Pete Carroll as their head coach, traded for Geno Smith to become their quarterback, signed Jeremy Chinn and Germaine Pratt in free agency, and drafted Ashton Jeanty to be their running back.
Let’s get one thing clear: the Raiders are still a massive work in progress. They also play in a ruthless AFC West, making winning divisional games difficult. But with better coaching and a better roster, last year’s performance feels like Las Vegas’ worst-case scenario heading into 2025.
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-8
After a disappointing 5-12 season in 2023, the Los Angeles Chargers bounced back with a tremendous 11-6 campaign in Jim Harbaugh’s first year as head coach. They should be in good shape with him at the helm and Justin Herbert at quarterback.
There’s potential for a slight step back in 2025, however. They weren’t super active in free agency due to their cap restrictions, losing players like Joey Bosa, Josh Palmer, Poona Ford, and Khristian Fulton. Playing in the AFC West gives the Chargers a difficult divisional schedule, as well.
Los Angeles Rams: 8-9
Things look encouraging for the Los Angeles Rams heading into 2025. They gave the defending champion Eagles their toughest test of the postseason, they added Davante Adams to their offense, and Sean McVay is still their head coach.
Fear of the Rams reaching their worst-case scenario stems mostly from their division. Arizona was 8-9 last year and improved its roster, and San Francisco returns much healthier than in 2024. Los Angeles didn’t make too many free agency moves elsewhere, either. They could take a step back from their 4-2 record last year within the division.
Miami Dolphins: 6-11
The 2024 season was a nightmare for the Miami Dolphins, following an 11-6 season, as they went 8-9. A lot rides on the health of Tua Tagovailoa for them, but there are other factors that could present a worst-case scenario, too.
Miami traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick, but they lost Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith in the same deal. Jevon Holland and Calais Campbell also stand out as big losses, too. They still have plenty of talent on their roster. But if Tagovailoa struggles with injuries and the unproven secondary doesn’t step up to the plate, it could be a rough year for the Dolphins.
Minnesota Vikings: 8-9
Kevin O’Connell’s three seasons as the Minnesota Vikings’ head coach have been extremely volatile. They went 13-4 in 2022, dropped to 7-10 in 2023, and jumped back up to 14-3 in 2024. O’Connell is a good coach, but it’s tough to predict how the Vikings will do this year.
The Vikings added players like Ryan Kelly, Jonathan Allen, Will Fries, and Javon Hargrave this offseason. However, much will ride on the play of JJ McCarthy as their quarterback. Minnesota benefited from Sam Darnold’s magical run last year, giving McCarthy big shoes to fill. Their division is tough, and the secondary could hold them back, too.
New England Patriots: 5-12
The New England Patriots now have a proven NFL head coach in Mike Vrabel. They upgraded their roster with additions like Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, Milton Williams, Stefon Diggs, Harold Landry and Carlton Davis this offseason. A lot has changed in Foxboro this calendar year.
While the additions look promising, the Patriots have finished 4-13 each of the last two seasons. This roster likely isn’t a one-offseason fix, as their offense could still use some reinforcement around Drake Maye. Expect them to be better than last year, but a worst-case scenario for them would only see minimal improvement.
New Orleans Saints: 2-15
They tried putting it off for as long as they could, but the New Orleans Saints are now officially in rebuild mode. Want proof of that? Take a look at their quarterback room.
.@Saints odds to win the Super Bowl at @BetMGM
+25000: Before Derek Carr retirement
+25000: After
Saints have the worst odds in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/CPGydTwGBC
— John Ewing (@johnewing) May 10, 2025
Though the Saints have some solid young talent on the roster, their residence in cap hell has made it tough for them to add high-end upgrades in free agency in recent years. That’s apparent looking at the depth chart, and without an experienced quarterback at the helm, things could get ugly.
New York Giants: 3-14
On paper, the New York Giants should be better than they were in 2024. They didn’t lose any major free agents and added players like Jevon Holland, Paulson Adebo, Abdul Carter, and Russell Wilson this offseason. Getting better on paper doesn’t always translate to a better record, though.
The Giants have offensive line concerns, they lack a top weapon opposite Malik Nabers, and Wilson isn’t the quarterback he used to be. Their defense should be solid in 2025, and the team should ultimately be better as a result. However, their lack of offensive firepower could keep them from competing in the NFC East.
New York Jets: 2-15
The New York Jets went 5-12 last season, weren’t super active in free agency, and lost key contributors like Davante Adams, DJ Reed, and Javon Kinlaw this offseason. It’s difficult to imagine they improve much, if at all, in 2025.
There’s the possibility Justin Fields provides an upgrade at quarterback over Aaron Rodgers, but the former hasn’t been able to solidify himself as a consistent starter in the NFL yet. It’s a rough roster with quarterback concerns; don’t get your expectations too high for the Jets this season.
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6
As the defending Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles have a pretty big target on their backs heading into the 2025 season. Luckily for them, they’re pretty well equipped to handle the pressure.
Losing players like Milton Williams, Josh Sweat, and Mekhi Becton could hurt them, but the Eagles are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. A strong Washington team and a healthy Dallas team provide good competition in their division, which could knock them down a tad. Regardless, expect Philadelphia to be a major player in the NFC again.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-10
By signing Aaron Rodgers and trading for DK Metcalf, Jalen Ramsey, and Jonnu Smith, the Pittsburgh Steelers seem to have signaled that they’re looking to compete for a Super Bowl in 2025. They might be further off than they seem to want to admit.
Rodgers is 41 years old and isn’t the quarterback he used to be. He should still be an upgrade over the likes of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, but the Steelers still have the same problems they had last year.
Should the Steelers be all in with this roster? @colincowherd pic.twitter.com/njP7IVPgsi
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) July 1, 2025
Their quarterback play is in question, they don’t have a strong WR2, and most of their top defensive players are north of 30 years old.
San Francisco 49ers: 6-11
The San Francisco 49ers dealt with severe talent depletion in 2024, with several key contributors on both sides of the ball missing time due to injury. It’s unlikely they get as much injury bad luck as they did last year. That said, they face similar talent depletion in a different form: offseason losses.
Just this offseason, the 49ers lost Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward, Aaron Banks, Leonard Floyd, Jaylon Moore, and Jordan Mason. They still have serious star power on their roster, but they now lack the well-rounded group that got them to the Super Bowl two years ago.
Seattle Seahawks: 6-11
Does it seem harsh to think the Seattle Seahawks’ worst-case scenario could be going 6-11 after they went 10-7Â last year? Potentially, but there are a few factors playing into their potential regression going into 2025.
The Seahawks are betting on Sam Darnold not being a one-year wonder and keeping his same production as he had in Minnesota, though he doesn’t have as good of an offensive coaching staff or offensive line in Seattle. Cooper Kupp figures to be a downgrade from DK Metcalf at wide receiver. They have a good defense, but the offense is a big question mark.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-10
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the NFC South in four consecutive seasons and project as favorites to win the division for a fifth time in 2025. They lost Robert Hainsey along their offensive line but added Haason Reddick to their pass rush in an otherwise quiet offseason.
RELATED: Baker Mayfield Draws Comparisons to Legendary Brett Favre After Productive Season With Buccaneers
If the Buccaneers do reach their worst-case scenario, it would likely be because Baker Mayfield fell back down to Earth after a tremendous 2024 campaign. A breakout year from the Falcons or Panthers could also knock Tampa Bay down the ladder in the NFC South. They don’t have an elite roster, but they seem like the best team in the division.
Tennessee Titans: 3-14
It’s hard to go lower than where the Tennessee Titans ended up in 2024, having finished with the worst record in the NFL. The hope is that No. 1 pick Cam Ward will propel them back into playoff contention in due time. While that may happen, don’t expect that to happen in 2025.
The Titans are still missing firepower on offense and consistent pressure off the edge on defense. They used a lot of cap space wisely, bringing in seven projected veteran starters. Don’t expect them to make the playoffs, but with these additions, Tennessee repeating their 3-14 record from last year would only happen in a worst-case scenario.
Washington Commanders: 9-8
The Washington Commanders were the breakout story of 2024, going from 4-13 to 12-5 and an NFC Championship in the span of a year. They figure to be a Super Bowl contender again this season, but what if they fall back down to Earth?
The Commanders have the oldest roster in the NFL heading into 2025. Key starters like Bobby Wagner, Zach Ertz, Deatrich Wise, and Laremy Tunsil are all over 30. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense got figured out quickly after a hot start with the Cardinals, too. Will the same thing happen in Washington?
