In one of the tighter MVP races in recent memory, one underrated contender is Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff. Leading the NFC’s best team, Goff has delivered some historic stretches while playing at league-leading levels of efficiency.
Below we take a look at Goff’s odds to win MVP, as well as the case for and against the Lions quarterback.
What Are Jared Goff’s Odds To Win MVP?
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Goff has the fourth-highest odds to win MVP. Here are the players with the 10 shortest odds entering Week 14:
- Josh Allen (-225)
- Saquon Barkley (+350)
- Lamar Jackson (+900)
- Jared Goff (+1200)
- Patrick Mahomes (+2500)
- Jalen Hurts (+6000)
- Jayden Daniels (+6500)
- Justin Herbert (+6500)
- Jordan Love (+6500)
- Baker Mayfield (+6500)
Case For Jared Goff To Win MVP
Statistically, Goff meets the threshold of recent MVP winners. Entering Week 14, he has passed for 22 touchdowns to nine interceptions and ranks top-two in completion percentage (71.8%), yards per attempt (8.8), and passer rating (109.2). He ranks third in EPA per dropback as well (0.23), behind Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa (who has missed four games).
Goff’s EPA per dropback figure isn’t historically high, but it clears the bar to win this award. Of the last 10 MVP winners, four fell below the EPA per dropback threshold that Goff has produced this season:
- 2021 Aaron Rodgers (0.21)
- 2017 Tom Brady (0.20)
- 2015 Cam Newton (0.14)
- 2023 Lamar Jackson (0.07)
Goff also meets the team criteria that arguably shouldn’t factor into the award, but it has essentially become canon these days. Each of the last 11 MVP winners have been quarterbacks from a team that finished with a top-two seed in its conference.
This year, that would mean Goff’s likely competition is Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen (the Pittsburgh Steelers could catch Allen’s Buffalo Bills in the standings, but Russell Wilson isn’t a realistic candidate after missing the first six games of the season).
Of that list, Allen is the only player with shorter odds than Goff. Allen is the favorite as shown above, but Goff has also outperformed Allen in EPA per dropback, yards per attempt, yards per dropback, completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and first-down percentage. The only notable categories where Allen holds a real edge are in interception rate and touchdown-to-interception ratio.
At some point, that trend will fall, and someone outside the field of those four players will win MVP. It could certainly arrive this year, with Saquon Barkley receiving significant MVP hype and Lamar Jackson remaining in the race despite the Baltimore Ravens dropping some games. Still, Goff absolutely fits the general profile of the last decade’s MVP winners.
Case Against Jared Goff To Win MVP
As great as some of the underlying efficiency numbers are, Goff is “only” seventh in PFN’s QB+ metric, which takes a variety of situational EPA and success rate metrics into account. He sits behind other clear MVP contenders, including Jackson, Allen, and Hurts.
This gets to the main crux of the argument against Goff. Fairly or not, the perception is that he’s a cog in the Lions’ incredibly well-oiled machine, as opposed to the engine driving their success. PFN’s other metrics back up this notion: despite Goff ranking seventh in QB+, Detroit ranks first in Offense+ and second in Defense+ entering Week 14.
Other teams’ share-related stats highlight how Goff isn’t the primary engineer for the Lions’ spectacular offense. For instance, he’s scored or passed on just 51.1% of Detroit’s touchdowns this season, which ranks 27th. He’s also gained or passed for just 63.7% of their scrimmage yards, which ranks 20th.
That’s below the threshold of some other MVP winners, and in most cases far below it. Consider the last five winners:
- 2023 Lamar Jackson: 54.7% of TD (21st), 71.5% of yards (10th)
- 2022 Patrick Mahomes: 76.3% of TD (fourth), 79.7% of yards (third)
- 2021 Aaron Rodgers: 76.9% of TD (third), 67.8% of yards (13th)
- 2020 Aaron Rodgers: 79.7% of TD (fourth), 71.5% of yards (11th)
- 2019 Lamar Jackson: 74.1% of TD (sixth), 66.4% of yards (20th)
As effective as Goff has been, he’s not “carrying” a top seed the way most other recent MVP quarterbacks have. His importance to the Lions may be underrated by those who remember his rocky 2020-22 stretch and dismiss his impact, but that doesn’t mean Goff is the primary reason for Detroit’s success.
In this case, the perception and statistical reality around Goff have a fair amount of overlap. Even with the Lions on track for their best season in franchise history, that could be a tough hill to climb for Goff to win MVP.
