The Chicago Bears have been quite busy this month. They signed D’Andre Swift, traded for Keenan Allen, and now traded away the QB they drafted in the first round just three years ago.
Justin Fields joined the Pittsburgh Steelers to back up Russell Wilson. Yet, this actually has significant fantasy football ramifications. Let’s discuss them.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Justin Fields Being Traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers?
The entire saga of the Bears and Steelers’ quarterback situations is a prime example of why we should never take anything at face value. Initially, the Steelers publicly stated they were not interested in acquiring a veteran quarterback. Then, they went out and go two of them.
Meanwhile, there were rumors that the Bears were going to trade the No. 1 overall pick and move forward with Fields. To be fair, most people never bought those rumors.
If, after three seasons, an NFL team is not completely sold on its quarterback, then that, itself, is the answer to what they should do. They were always going to draft USC QB Caleb Williams. This trade merely confirms it.
Shortly after being traded to the Bears, Keenan Allen was asked which player he was most excited to play with. His answer was Justin Fields. Welp. It’s possible Allen was sold a bill of goods, but as fellow WR DJ Moore pointed out, “Business is business.” I’m sure neither will be upset when Williams proves to be a far superior option than Fields ever was.
The Fields Trade Solidifies Caleb Williams to the Bears
There are obviously no guarantees in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is the surest QB in the league right now. But as a prospect, he had plenty of doubters. Williams has been compared to Mahomes. He’s the best prospect since Andrew Luck. But I would stop short of calling Williams as much of a sure thing as Luck was.
With that said, Williams is supposed to be very good. If he is even close to as good as advertised, he is entering a suddenly excellent offensive situation.
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We’ve seen plenty of rookie quarterbacks fail to support even one top-24 wide receiver. However, in most of those cases, the quarterback was either not particularly good, or he didn’t have any top-24 real-life WRs. Williams has two of the best in the league.
You can check out my full thoughts on how Allen and Moore will be impacted here.
Fields Has the Potential To Break Fantasy In 2024
You’re probably sitting there quite confused. How can a guy we know is going to open the season as a backup “break” fantasy?…because he’s opening the season as a backup.
We know what Fields’ fantasy upside looks like. He completed 61.4% of his passes last year and 60.4% the year before. Fields is a subpar passer at best. Yet, he averaged 18.4 and 20.5 fantasy points per game.
In 2022, Fields had a seven-week stretch where he scored at least 21.3 fantasy points in every game. During that span, he had back-to-back weeks with over 40 fantasy points.
Fields doesn’t have to be a great passer to thrive in fantasy because of his elite rushing ability. He’s the second-best rushing QB in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson. Most importantly, he’s a surefire top-12 fantasy quarterback when he starts.
As we well know, Fields won’t be starting for the Steelers. That job belongs to Russell Wilson.
Fields will still undoubtedly be drafted in Superflex leagues because he’s too dangerous to be left on waiver wires. But in single QB leagues, many fantasy managers don’t even draft a second QB. How can anyone justify drafting a second QB who is a backup on his NFL team?
Even if someone does take Fields, it won’t take long for that manager to be forced to drop him. Roster spots are precious. You can’t light one on fire, especially early in the season when you’re trying to find the Kyren Williamses and Puka Nacuas of the world on the waiver wire.
Here’s the thing, though. Fields is almost certainly going to make starts this season. Wilson hasn’t exactly been the pinnacle of health in the past three years. But most importantly, he hasn’t been a particularly good quarterback.
Wilson was straight-up benched for Jarrett Stidham last season. The Denver Broncos gave Wilson a five-year $245 million extension, only to cut him after two years before his contract with the Seattle Seahawks even expired.
Wilson is still one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the world, but does he give the Steelers a better chance to win than Fields? I’m not so sure.
Although it took an injury, Mike Tomlin had no problem benching 2022 first-round QB Kenny Pickett for Mason Rudolph last season. Tomlin and the Steelers have even less of an allegiance to Wilson than they did Pickett.
If Wilson plays poorly, the Steelers absolutely will turn to Fields. And if Fields gets under center, he will immediately be the No. 1 waiver add of the week at quarterback, and likely overall.
I am supremely confident Fields is going to make starts this season. Allow me to give you a sneak peek of the strategy.
This won’t always be possible and isn’t worth doing until at least 3-4 weeks into the season, as Wilson is not getting benched that quickly. But as often as you can, in as many leagues as you can, stash Fields before the Steelers play. This will work better when the Steelers play in prime time.
Put Fields on your bench. If Wilson plays well and doesn’t get hurt, drop him after his game ends for someone else if you need to. If Wilson gets hurt, then obviously, you know you have a starter. If Wilson merely plays poorly, wait and see what happens. If you get an inkling that the Steelers may make a change at QB, hold onto Fields. Otherwise, you can drop him whenever you need to.
Fields is a difference-maker in fantasy. I can’t even remember a previous instance where a backup QB was guaranteed to be a premium single QB league waiver add if he found himself in the starting role. Fields is a unique case in the 2024 season and someone fantasy managers need to have a plan for.
George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth Will Be Fine Regardless of Who Plays QB
Whether it’s Wilson or Fields, the Steelers are going to be a run-first offense. Obviously, Fields will scramble and have designed runs drawn up for him far more than Wilson.
But with Diontae Johnson gone, when the Steelers do pass, they should have a consolidated target distribution. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth are the clear top two options in the passing game.
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However you value Pickens and Freiermuth should not change in any meaningful way, whether it’s Wilson or Fields.