Two teams with nothing to play for will determine which of their rivals makes the playoffs–and the math behind it explains why the NFC South remains the NFL’s strangest division.
Atlanta and New Orleans kick off Sunday at 1 p.m. ET with combined records of 13-19 and zero postseason aspirations. Yet their game carries more weight than any other in Week 18, delivering the NFC South crown to either Tampa Bay or Carolina, depending on which eliminated team prevails.
How a Three-Way Tiebreaker Hands Carolina the Division
The Panthers lost 16-14 to the Buccaneers on Saturday in Tampa, dropping both teams to 8-9 and setting up the NFL’s most convoluted playoff scenario. If Atlanta beats New Orleans, Carolina wins the division. If the Saints win, Tampa Bay claims its fifth consecutive NFC South title.
Here’s where it gets weird: In a two-team tie at 8-9, the Bucs advance on the common-games tiebreaker over Carolina. However, a Falcons victory creates a three-way logjam at 8-9, and a three-team tie is broken using different criteria. Head-to-head record among the three teams becomes the deciding factor.
Carolina swept Atlanta this season and split with Tampa Bay, giving the Panthers a 3-1 mark against the other two contenders. The Bucs went 2-2, and the Falcons finished 1-3. That distinction sends Carolina to the playoffs with a division title if Atlanta simply takes care of business against a depleted Saints squad missing Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) and Chris Olave (a blood clot in his lung).
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The Panthers understand that they are now spectators.
“I don’t know. … Might just see how it ends up,” quarterback Bryce Young said after Saturday’s loss. “It’s on us for that being our reality. We had an opportunity to take it, and now we have to leave it in someone else’s hands. We take ownership in that.”
Head coach Dave Canales echoed the frustration while acknowledging the stakes: “It’s in the hands of another game, and that’s not what we were hoping for, but there’s still hope.”
The Buccaneers find themselves in an equally uncomfortable position–rooting for a team their quarterback openly despises.
Baker Mayfield said last summer that he hates the Saints and called them a dirty team while reiterating his distaste before their October matchup. After Saturday’s win, Mayfield admitted the obvious to ESPN: “I am [a Saints fan] tomorrow!”
Lavonte David etched his name alongside Derrick Brooks.
LEGENDS 🐐🐐 pic.twitter.com/bjlYBJDaw6
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 4, 2026
He added with a smirk that “a tie still gets us in.”
Mayfield joked that he “might call the hotel for the Falcons [to disturb players’ sleep]” but conceded he didn’t know where they were staying. A team watch party is apparently in the works for Tampa Bay’s locker room.
The NFC South’s Identity Crisis Continues
Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, an 8-9 team will host a playoff game next weekend. Canales offered no apologies for the division’s mediocrity.
“It’s a grimy, gritty division,” he said. “Between our team, between the Falcons and the Bucs, we have our share of wins against top opponents in this league.”
The numbers paint a more damning picture. Tampa Bay started 6-2 before losing seven of its final nine games. Carolina dropped back-to-back opportunities to clinch when a single victory would have secured the division–first against Seattle, then against the Bucs. Atlanta’s late surge to 7-9 happened only after the Falcons had already been eliminated.
Entering Saturday, Tampa Bay went 7-1 this season when Mayfield avoided interceptions and 0-8 when he threw at least one pick. Head coach Todd Bowles didn’t mince words about his quarterback’s struggles during the skid.
“We’ve got to be better at the quarterback position, and we’ve got to be better at the signal-calling position, and we’ve got to be better blocking it,” Bowles said.
Mayfield responded with a steadier performance Saturday–16 of 22 for 203 yards with one touchdown and one interception–and Tampa Bay snapped its four-game losing streak. Now the Buccaneers wait.
Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles said he planned to watch the game from home. Veteran linebacker Lavonte David said he “never thought” he would be rooting for the Saints.
The Falcons enter Sunday as three-point favorites, but nothing about this division race has followed conventional logic. If the Panthers are watching–and Canales suggested “we’re all going to be on the edge of our seats” — they’ll be hoping Atlanta delivers. If not, Tampa Bay completes its path from 7-5 division leaders to 8-9 division champions.
The NFC South has answered the question of what happens when three teams vie for a division title. Someone still has to take it.
