Who should be the first pick in fantasy football drafts in 2021?

There is no pick in a fantasy football draft more valuable than the first overall pick. While only a few players are worthy of this designation, some considerations must be made to ensure your draft gets off on the right foot. With scoring and roster settings in mind, who should fantasy football managers target with the first pick, and how should their draft strategy alter based on the league’s format?

Fantasy football draft strategy for the first pick

Before we go into who someone should pick, we need to address the more important topic — why should you pick Player A over Player B?

The majority of this decision comes down to two things: 1) The role in the offense and how the scoring format of the fantasy league values specific stats, and 2) The roster construction of the league.

For the first point, let’s look at scoring. It goes without saying that when you take a player first overall, or in the first round in general, you are looking for a player that not only rarely comes off the field but is an integral component of the offense’s scheme, especially those who are heavily involved in the passing game.

Using last season as an example, amongst the top 60 running backs in PPR scoring, they averaged 0.67 fantasy points per rushing attempt. Even the best of the best (top 10 RBs) only averaged 0.73 pts/attempt. Now, amongst those same 60 RBs, they averaged 1.53 points per target and 1.99 points per reception, with the top 10 averaging 1.59 points per target and 2.06 per reception.

This massive disparity in scoring is why we so highly covet pass-catching backs, especially when more and more leagues are using full PPR scoring. Look at last season. For as much of an outlier Derrick Henry is rushing for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns, he didn’t finish as the RB1 despite Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley missing the majority of the season.

When you are on the clock with the first pick in a fantasy football draft, the best draft strategy is to go for a player (specifically a running back) involved in the passing game.

Draft strategy when it comes to superflex fantasy football formats

In the majority of fantasy football leagues, the quarterback as a whole is a devalued position. In a 10-to-12-team league, you could be the last person to select a QB and walk away with a sensational player. Last season, the QB10 (Lamar Jackson), averaged 22.8 points per game. Josh Allen (QB1) averaged 25.4 per contest. In fact, 12 quarterbacks averaged 20 points or more, excluding Marcus Mariota and his one game.

In my rankings alone, the last person taking their QB1 would be getting either Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, or Matthew Stafford. Consequently, you could even take a later selection on Justin Fields or Trey Lance and have another potential top-12 QB when it’s all said and done. This is why we always advocate waiting on the position.

When it comes to superflex, the positional scarcity of the position is flipped on its head. Suddenly, 20 to 24 quarterbacks are being started every week, and when you add in needing a third QB on your bench for bye weeks, there are more needs than starting NFL quarterbacks available.

In superflex leagues, quarterbacks should dominate the first picks in drafts. For as nice as it is to have an elite running back, you can’t overlook the stability of an elite QB1 like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, or Lamar Jackson. The first pick in a superflex fantasy football draft needs to be one of these players.

Mock drafts are your friend 

I can not emphasize this enough. Do as many mock drafts as you can before your real draft. As critical as research and number-crunching are, working on your fantasy football draft strategy is just as important, if not more so. 

This is where you see how changes in ADP (average draft position) affects roster builds. Take notes on guys who go earlier or later than you might like and find potential values. It is also pivotal for deciding how you want to use your first pick in your fantasy draft.

For example, Travis Kelce is the no-brainer TE1, having finished there for five straight seasons. He is a first-round pick. But if you do mock drafts and do not like how your team ends up, you can change your strategy. Not every player in fantasy football is right for you. 

Run through as many scenarios and strategies as you can, from Zero RB to Zero WR, Early QB, and anything else you can think of along the way. Choosing your first pick in a fantasy football draft sets the table for the rest of your team and roster construction.

Who should be the first pick in fantasy football drafts in 2021?

For those lucky enough to have the first overall pick in a fantasy football draft, you have a straightforward selection: Christian McCaffrey. 

Since 2018, McCaffrey has averaged 27.1 points per game (35 active games) while recording 20+ points 28 times (80%). McCaffrey is the closest player to LaDainian Tomlinson at having this type of dominance. Commissioners are trying to rebalance how drafts work by implementing third-round reversals (3RR).

You could easily say he is in a tier of his own, although Cook has narrowed the gap. While I would not bet on another 1,000/1,000 season out of McCaffrey as he did in 2019, he checks all the boxes. CMC is a true three-down back that should see around 250+ carries and could haul in 90 receptions. In my projections, he is the only RB who will crest the 300-point total and should do so with relative ease. 

No. 1 pick in QB-centric leagues

As for superflex drafts, you could make a case for at least four or five quarterbacks who could end the season as the QB1. The safe bet, however, is Patrick Mahomes.

Over his 45 games that he has finished, Mahomes has been the QB12 or better 33 times, QB4 or better 14 times, and the QB1 seven times. He has more weeks as the QB4 or better (14) than he does weeks as QB13 or worse (12). That is including games involving injury and playoffs-already-clinched Week 17 games.

72.7% (120) of the Chiefs’ offensive touchdowns (165) are the direct involvement of Mahomes. If you assume, like many do, that they will be the top-scoring offense again in 2021, there is no safer bet in fantasy football at the quarterback position than Mahomes.