The NFL Draft is like the offseason Super Bowl, except instead of two teams, all 32 have a shot to celebrate what they’ve achieved. And while every selection matters, all eyes will be on the first overall pick. Which team has it, and what will they do with it?
Who Has the First Overall Pick in the 2023 NFL Draft?
The Chicago Bears finished the 2022 regular season with the worst record at 3-14. They edged out the 3-13-1 Houston Texans to “earn” the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft.
Six years ago, the Bears had the No. 3 pick. They needed a franchise-caliber quarterback, and they were convinced Mitch Trubisky was that guy. So they gave up that pick, plus two third-rounders and a fourth-rounder, to the San Francisco 49ers. In return, they moved up one spot. Yes, just one spot.
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Because they knew the Cleveland Browns, which picked No. 1, had their eyes on DE Myles Garrett. Cleveland needed a lot of help and was engaged in a systematic rebuild. But Chicago had a lot of great young pieces, especially at key offensive positions, like RB Jordan Howard, WR Alshon Jeffery, and the presumably up-and-coming Cameron Meredith.
We know what happened next. The Bears have enjoyed only one winning season since then, Trubisky is long gone, and this franchise is coming off its worst win-loss record since 1969, back when moon dust was a popular topic at dinner parties.
The Bears learned their lesson. They found a team more desperate to move up than they were in 2017. And that team is the rebuilding Carolina Panthers.
How Did the Carolina Panthers Get the First Overall Pick?
I’ll go on record and make the claim that the Panthers’ trade to land this year’s No. 1 overall pick will, in hindsight, be viewed more harshly than the Bears’ 2017 move to get Trubisky. That might seem completely misguided. I get it. Carolina is in the driver’s seat. They can snag the best eligible college football player. Who wouldn’t want that?
But what I wouldn’t give to have been a fly on the wall during their negotiations with the Bears. How much more did Carolina give up than they thought they’d need to? Or am I mistaken? Do they feel fortunate that they didn’t give up more?
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Carolina entered this year’s draft with the No. 9 overall pick. To move up eight spots, they gave Chicago that first-rounder, next year’s first-rounder, a second-rounder this year, and a 2025 second-rounder. Oh, and WR DJ Moore.
Chicago effectively made the Panthers weaker next season, which should elevate the value of that coveted 2024 first-round pick — one that easily could be a top-10 selection. The Bears also put themselves in position to land one more starter in this year’s draft, as the second-round pick should give them plenty of options for an instant upgrade.
As for Moore, it’s a bit of a head-scratcher to me. Carolina now lacks the draft capital and personnel to give their incoming rookie QB even a half-decent receiving corps. One could argue they’ll start the season with the least-talented receiving corps in the league.
Panthers Team Needs and Options With First Overall Pick
I hope I’m wrong and that the Panthers thrive with the help of their No. 1 pick. They have the benefit of playing in the mixed-bag NFC South, featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (without Tom Brady), New Orleans Saints (all-in on Derek Carr), and Atlanta Falcons (is Desmond Ridder the answer?).
But giving up Moore leaves the Panthers with a significant hole at wideout. Moore has played like a top-20 — or at least a top-25 — receiver. At times, he’s looked like a top-10 NFL receiving talent. And he probably hasn’t yet hit his prime.
Adam Thielen and DJ Chark are the presumed co-No. 1 WRs. But Thielen is entering his age-33 season; his best campaign was five years ago. Chark has dealt with injuries for most of the last two years, and one might wonder if he’ll ever return to his peak 2019 form.
PFN colleague Dalton Miller has identified a need on the edge, though Carolina might take a stop-gap approach by signing a veteran.
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The biggest immediate need seems clear. Last season, the Panthers bounced between Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker. They used a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to land Matt Corral, who suffered a season-ending injury before he could see the field. The recently signed Andy Dalton probably will serve in an emergency role behind…
… a rookie quarterback. Yes, all signs are pointing to the Panthers drafting C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young. In an alternate universe where Corral didn’t get hurt, he assuredly would have earned several starts last season. The team could have sized up his potential to elevate this offense.
Instead, the Panthers are starting at zero at the position. As a result, they need a guy who can get them to legitimacy in year No. 1 or 2, and then ideally the postseason by year No. 3. It’s the Trevor Lawrence pathway.
Stroud and Young might become special NFL talents. Carolina must decide which one is the best fit.
