Jordan Addison has largely been impressive this season for the Minnesota Vikings with eight top-35 finishes (three top-20s), but his upside has taken a hit since Joshua Dobbs got to town; and with Justin Jefferson due back sooner than later, it’s fair to wonder if Addison’s days as a fantasy football asset in 2023 are done.
Jordan Addison’s Rest-of-Season Outlook
When Marquise Brown was Dobbs’ top target in Arizona, he was targeted with roughly 27% of the throws, a strong showing and a rate that points to Dobbs’ tendency to focus on his top threat.
In his three games (two starts) with Minnesota, it’s been T.J. Hockenson (32.7% target share) filling that alpha role with Jordan Addison (19.2%) filling the secondary role. Where Jefferson (hamstring) factors into the equation with a quarterback whom he has never played with requires some guesswork, but assuming that he is ahead of Addison is reasonable.
Addison’s Rest-of-Season Ranking
With that assumption and an increasingly healthy Hockenson, Addison’s involvement is in serious danger. The Dobbs story has been great, but it’s not as if he is airing the ball out at a high level (32 attempts per game), making Addison’s projected dip in role that much more impactful.
I’ll be projecting him to land in the 4-6 target range more often than not, a role that doesn’t carry much of a ceiling. What does it mean for his rest-of-season ranking? Here’s the tier in which I have him, understanding that Minnesota has yet to have its bye, and that naturally hurts his outlook.
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- 38. Marquise Brown | ARI
- 39. Gabe Davis | BUF
- 40. Drake London | ATL
- 41. Jordan Addison | MIN
- 42. Amari Cooper | CLE
- 43. Noah Brown | HOU
- 44. Zay Jones | JAX
- 45. Brandin Cooks | DAL
- 46. Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL
After Minnesota’s Week 13 bye, four of its remaining five games come against a defense that is either aggressive in terms of blitz rate or well above average in creating pressure with its front four. Those matchups encourage a focus on early reads, and once Jefferson is back in the mix (likely Week 12, Monday night against the Chicago Bears), plays in which Addison is going to be limited, if not gone altogether.
I’m benching Addison in all formats and reacting should his usage tell a different story, as opposed to assuming he will hold Flex value until otherwise proven.
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