Every year, a new batch of young wide receivers enters the league. It would be awesome if all of them wound up being great. As any NFL fan or fantasy football manager knows, though, that’s never the case.
Last year, I did a deep dive into how rookie receiving yardage dictates how confident we should be about that player’s upside. One year later, let’s revisit the data, see how effective it was at predicting how the 2023 rookies would fare in 2024, and what it tells us about the incredible 2024 WR class.
Total Receiving Yards as a Rookie Wide Receiver Matters a Lot
Previously, we focused on the negative side of things. How do we know when to give up on young wide receivers? Today, we are looking at the positive. Rookie receiving yardage can tell us a lot about how good we can expect a wide receiver to be.
As we established in the previous article, if a rookie wide receiver does not reach 525 receiving yards, it is extremely unlikely he will ever be a useful fantasy football asset.
On the flip side, when a player does reach 525 receiving yards, that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be great. How far he exceeds the threshold matters. Today, we are going to explore this concept.
Just like I did in my last article, before we get into things, I want to give credit where it is due. I did not come up with this concept. It is mentioned frequently in the dynasty subreddit, and there are some quality posts discussing it. However, I’ve never actually seen it really explained in a more formal article. That is what I hope to accomplish.
**If you have seen something like this elsewhere, please share it with me on X. I want to give credit to anyone who has done this research before me and will gladly link to it here.**
The Parameters
Before we discuss specific players, let’s be clear about what we’re doing. I’m sure most of you know JJ Zachariason. He runs lateround.com and is one of the most well-respected minds in fantasy.
When discussing his ZAP model, Zachariason utilizes data back to 2011. Why 2011? Those of us playing fantasy back then remember the great QB boom of 2011. It was a pivotal year in football when the game really started to shift to a passing league. So, like Zachariason, I will be using WR data dating back to 2011 as our sample size.
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In the first study, I limited the player pool to Day 1 and Day 2 wide receivers. That’s because Day 3 picks are extremely unlikely to matter in fantasy anyway. They are already outliers, and no one expects them to be good. We wanted to focus on the players who should be good.
In this study, the sample size is all wide receivers. If anything, it’s more impressive when a Day 3 or UDFA hits 525 receiving yards as a rookie. Plus, the list of wide receivers to reach 525 receiving yards is much smaller than the list of those that didn’t when we include literally every wide receiver to play a snap as a rookie.
So, why am I stopping at 2022? The purpose of this part of the analysis is to see what rookie receiving production tells us about a player’s future performance. Players drafted in 2023 and 2024 have only two seasons of data.
From 2011 through 2022, 84 wide receivers amassed at least 525 receiving yards as rookies. Now, we need a way to evaluate their future performance.
We are going to separate them into buckets. These are somewhat arbitrary cutoffs, but we have to distinguish them somehow.
We are going to have three groups of receivers based on rookie yardage:
- 525-699
- 700-899
- 900+
Additionally, since this is ultimately a fantasy football article, we need to translate this to fantasy.
There are 12 WR1s every year. However, the cutoff for what constitutes a WR1 changes relative to the position’s overall performance. Generally speaking, I use the following thresholds for production.
WR1: 16-plus fantasy points per game
WR2: 14-16 ppg
WR3: 12-13 ppg
The Better the Rookie Year, the Better the Fantasy Asset
Let’s start with the overall group of players. Of our 84 wide receivers to reach 525 receiving yards as rookies from 2011-2022, 52 of them went on to be mostly useful fantasy assets. That’s a 61.9% hit rate.
That alone isn’t particularly useful, which is why 525 yards is more about disqualifying players than telling us which ones we want.
Now we can break those 84 down into those buckets:
- 525-699 (38)
- 700-899 (23)
- 900+ (23)
There are some major hits in the 525-699 bucket. This group includes guys like Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks, and Tyreek Hill. But overall, there are 11 guys in the sample of 38 who became at least somewhat usable fantasy assets. That is only a 28.9% success rate, which is better than the 90%-plus bust rate under that 525 threshold, but it is not exactly exciting.
The takeaway from this bucket is that anyone achieving between 525 and 699 receiving yards has a chance to be a usable fantasy asset going forward, but it’s very hit-or-miss.
At 700 Yards, We Start To See Serious Fantasy Upside
In our sample of wide receivers entering the league from 2011 to 2022, a total of 46 of them reached 700 receiving yards as rookies. Of those 46, a whopping 42 produced at least one WR3 season in fantasy. That’s a 91.3% hit rate. Of course, we don’t merely want WR3s.
If we dig a little deeper, 35 produced at least one WR2 season or better, a 76.1% hit rate. Meanwhile, 24 gave us at least one WR1 season, a 52.1% hit rate.
As you can see, wide receivers who reach 700 yards as rookies have a pretty good chance of giving fantasy managers something in the future, making any receiver who reaches this threshold worth keeping in dynasty. But we’re looking for sustained success.
This is the part that is somewhat subjective, but only a bit. I am going to designate some players as long-term hits. While a couple will be debatable, most are pretty objective.
I would categorize 30 of our group of 46 receivers as long-term successes, meaning 65.2% of wide receivers who reached 700 receiving yards as rookies were valuable fantasy assets for an extended period of time.
Now, if we narrow it down further, we have 23 receivers in the 700-899 yardage bracket. Among the biggest hits in that 700-899 yardage bracket were Cooper Kupp, T.Y. Hilton, Calvin Ridley, Deebo Samuel, DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, DJ Moore, Jarvis Landry, Brandon Aiyuk, Stefon Diggs, and Drake London.
Aiyuk is the only member of this group who has not produced at least one WR1 season (although he came very close in 2023).
While these guys were major successes and examples of the best-case outcome for wide receivers in the bucket of 700-899 yards, there were still a bunch of misses.
Of the 23 receivers who totaled between 700 and 899 receiving yards as rookies, 48% have proven to be very successful dynasty assets (the 11 players listed above). The clear busts were Chase Claypool, Jordan Matthews, Keelan Cole, Darius Slayton, Terrance Williams, and Greg Little. That is a 26% bust rate among players finishing their rookie season with 700-899 yards.
Then, we have the guys who are debatable. How do we feel about Jerry Jeudy, Torrey Smith, and Courtland Sutton? They all gave us useful seasons but never really reached their potential. I lean more toward them being disappointing overall as fantasy assets in dynasty leagues.
What about George Pickens? He’s been a startable fantasy asset, but never someone you’re excited about or viewing as a guy who can swing a matchup.
This bucket also includes Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon. I was tempted to remove them because their lack of fantasy relevancy had nothing to do with their football talent. In fact, I am fairly convinced both would have given us multiple WR1 seasons had they not had their off-the-field concerns.
To summarize, it’s great to see rookie WRs reach 700 yards in terms of their fantasy value. The numbers over our 10-year sample size tell us that a receiver falling in the 700-899 yard bracket will have the following outcomes (We have removed Blackmon and Gordon in these calculations to leave a sample size of 21):
- 52.3% went on to be very valuable dynasty assets
- 28.5% have been considered busts
- 19.2% have been usable but not exciting dynasty options
At 900 Yards, We See Truly Elite Upside
From 2011-2022, 23 wide receivers reached 900 yards as rookies. Since the purpose of this study is to showcase how elite the elite are, I think it’s worth listing them all.
- Ja’Marr Chase (1,455)
- Justin Jefferson (1,400)
- Odell Beckham Jr. (1,305)
- Michael Thomas (1,137)
- Garrett Wilson (1,103)
- Amari Cooper (1,070)
- A.J. Green (1,057)
- Mike Evans (1,051)
- A.J. Brown (1,051)
- Keenan Allen (1,046)
- Chris Olave (1,042)
- Jaylen Waddle (1,015)
- Kelvin Benjamin (1,008)
- Willie Snead (984)
- Sammy Watkins (982)
- Julio Jones (959)
- CeeDee Lamb (935)
- Terry McLaurin (919)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (917)
- DeVonta Smith (916)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (912)
- Tee Higgins (908)
- DK Metcalf (900)
Of this group, we’ve gotten a WR1 season from 14 of them, a 60.8% hit rate. We’ve gotten at least a WR2 season from another seven, making it 91.3% of this group that went on to produce at least one fantasy WR2 season.
There are only three true busts from this bucket: Benjamin, Snead, and Watkins. Snead was a UDFA, so his giving us anything at all is a win.
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Smith-Schuster and Wilson haven’t been as good as expected, but it would be unfair to classify either as busts. Smith-Schuster was a WR1 in 2018, a WR2 in 2020, and a WR3 in 2022. If you rode with him in dynasty, you are certainly disappointed now, but not quite a bust. Similarly, Wilson has been a WR2 or WR3 every year of his career. Not the ceiling we hoped for, but not terrible.
The real story here is the hits. This list has at least 11 perennial WR1s (47.8%) and seven more strong WR2s with WR1 upside (78.2% WR2 or better).
It’s incredibly rare for a rookie WR to reach 1,000 yards, but when he does, recent data tells us there is a greater than 90% chance that he’s going to be elite or close to it. Benjamin is the only complete miss among the 1,000-yard rookie receivers. You at least got two WR2 years out of him to start his career, but nothing since then.
What Does This Tell Us About the 2023 and 2024 Rookie Classes?
There are 18 wide receivers who reached at least 525 receiving yards as rookies over the past two seasons.
- Puka Nacua (1,486)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (1,282)
- Malik Nabers (1,204)
- Ladd McConkey (1,149)
- Rashee Rice (938)
- Jordan Addison (911)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (885)
- Zay Flowers (858)
- Jayden Reed (793)
- Josh Downs (771)
- Rome Odunze (734)
- Tank Dell (709)
- Xavier Worthy (638)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (628)
- Dontayvion Wicks (581)
- Michael Wilson (565)
- DeMario Douglas (561)
- Keon Coleman (556)
Of these 18 players, it’s hard to argue that anyone is completely irrelevant. Every single one of them deserves to be rostered in dynasty, and at least 15 of them will be drafted in redraft leagues.
Dontayvion Wicks and Michael Wilson look the worst out of this group. Wicks is buried at the bottom of a deep WR room and got worse from his rookie to sophomore season. Wilson also took a step back in his second year and is competing for targets with Harrison and Trey McBride.
DeMario Douglas was a sixth-round pick in 2023. It’s impossible for a sixth-rounder to be a bust. He’s already exceeded expectations, but isn’t a highly coveted asset. Keon Coleman looks like another Marquez Valdes-Scantling type. I am reasonably confident we will end up classifying him as a bust. As for the rest of these players, it’s varying degrees of good.
Nacua is likely in a class of players with a 100% elite WR1 hit rate. Simply put, rookies do not do what Nacua did unless they are supremely talented. Even though he was a Day 3 pick, fantasy managers were correctly treating him like an elite dynasty asset. He justified that belief with another superb performance last year, averaging 18.8 ppg.
Brian Thomas Jr. had to endure horrific coaching and two subpar quarterbacks. Yet, he posted 16.7 ppg. The dude is elite.
Rookie Brian Thomas jr 85 yard touchdown!! pic.twitter.com/SxjaDvEamq
— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) October 6, 2024
There were plenty of analysts who thought Malik Nabers was better than Harrison. They were correct. Nabers had even worse quarterback play than Thomas, but averaged 1.5 ppg more than the Jaguars’ rookie. Nabers is also elite.
Ladd McConkey surged over the second half to average 15.1 ppg. I expect him to be even better this year. The 2024 rookie class is amazing.
Rice and Addison are not viewed nearly as highly as the other three. However, they both eclipsed 900 yards as rookies. Addison stepped back as a sophomore, while Rice was going to superstardom before his quarterback destroyed his knee. But the long-term outlook on both is promising.
I’m going to lump all the 700-900 guys together. Tank Dell may never be useful again, but it has nothing to do with talent. He was going to be a hit, but might never play again due to a devastating set of knee injuries.
After one year, I’m fairly convinced Harrison needs a new quarterback if he is ever going to unlock his true potential. He and Kyler Murray do not mesh well. Nevertheless, his rookie season was still very good — he just disappointed because the expectations were so high. Harrison will be better this year, but I don’t expect a WR1 season.
Flowers, Reed, and Downs are all viewed pretty favorably. We should certainly err on the side of optimism with them.
The most difficult player to project here is Odunze. His rookie season was, by all accounts, underwhelming. But he still got to 734 yards while competing with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen for targets. I could really see this one going either way.
Last year, Smith-Njigba was kind of where Odunze is now. JSN absolutely smashed and is a surefire dynasty WR1 at this point. Now, he has even less target competition with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett out of Seattle.
Worthy is a tough egg to crack, too. He looked completely lost for half the season. Then, over the second half, he started to figure things out. At the same time, the abundance of injuries to the Chiefs’ WR corps resulted in many manufactured touches going to Worthy. Will he still get those designed targets and carries if Rice and Hollywood Brown are healthy for a full season?
In conclusion, there’s a lot to like about most of these 18 receivers from the past two rookie classes. Take advantage of this information as we go through the 2025 season. Use how this year’s rookie wide receivers perform to gauge how you should proceed going forward.
