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NFL Week 7 Picks: Opening betting lines, best bets, and early action

NFL Week 7 Picks: Opening betting lines, best bets, and early action
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 13: Nate Davis #64 of the Tennessee Titans plays against the Buffalo Bills at Nissan Stadium on October 13, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)

With only two more games left in Week 6, the Pro Football Network betting team has already started to look at the early odds and opening betting lines for Week 7. This upcoming week, we will see a number of divisional matchups, including the lackluster NFC and AFC East. Either way, the team has put together some of their early Week 7 NFL picks based on the betting lines available Monday morning.

Continue to check back as we update this article with more of our early looks.

NFL Week 7 Picks: Finding value in the early betting lines and odds

With a few of the games still off the board, we take a look at the odds and betting lines that are available.

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/22 8:20 ET At Philadelphia -6 NY Giants 45
10/25 1:00 ET Cleveland -4.5 At Cincinnati 51.5
10/25 1:00 ET Dallas -3.5 At Washington
10/25 1:00 ET At Atlanta -2.5 Detroit 56.5
10/25 1:00 ET At New Orleans -7 Carolina
10/25 1:00 ET Buffalo -11 At NY Jets
10/25 1:00 ET Green Bay -3.5 At Houston 56
10/25 4:05 ET Seattle -3.5 At Arizona
10/25 4:25 ET At New England -4.5 San Francisco
10/25 4:25 ET Kansas City -9 At Denver
10/25 8:20 ET Tampa Bay -2.5 At Las Vegas 54
10/25 4:25 ET At LA Chargers -8 Jacksonville
10/25 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -1 At Tennessee 51.5

Monday Night Football Line
10/26 8:15 ET At LA Rams -6.5 Chicago

 

NFL Week 7 Picks: This week, we bet against the bad teams

Buffalo Bills (-11) at New York Jets

The New York Jets were just shut out by the Miami Dolphins. Now, this isn’t a knock against the Dolphins. They have been quite fun to watch, with Ryan Fitzpatrick enjoying a nice resurgence in his career. But, they are not what many would consider being in the “elite” category.

The Jets have looked awful, ranking dead last or not too far from it in every single offensive metric imaginable. With Joe Flacco under center, it has not gotten any better for the team. This week, they might see the return of Sam Darnold, but that doesn’t change much for me.

The Bills are ranked 11th in offense and 21st in defense and the Jets are ranked 32nd in offense and 31st in defense. As of right now, I don’t know the outcome of the Bills and Chiefs game that plays tonight; however, there is a good chance that they will be coming into this game off back to back losses.

Related | NFL Power Rankings, Week 7: Teams moving up and down the board

The last time we saw the Bills, they were being destroyed on national television by the Tennessee Titans 42-16. One of the reasons they jump off the page here is the drop in the quality of their opponent. Losing to the Titans and Chiefs is somewhat expected. Now, they can come to New York and take out their frustrations on the Jets.

We saw what a good secondary can do to Flacco this past week, now imagine what the Bills secondary can do. The Jets are ranked 21st against the run, and that is not something you want to be when going up against a potent run game and an incredibly mobile QB. Look to play Josh Allen’s over rushing prop here and take the Bills minus the points.

I would wait a bit later in the week though, if Darnold is activated, this number might come down a bit. Either way, the Bills are the play.

Week 7 NFL Picks | Ryan Gosling

Buffalo Bills -11 (-110)
Josh Allen over rushing yards
Bills first end of a 6 point teaser (-5)

NFL Week 7 Picks: Another divisional matchup

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7)

The Carolina Panthers (3-3) travel to meet the New Orleans Saints (3-2) Sunday after being brought back down to earth in a humbling 23-16 loss to the Bears. These two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions, as the Saints offense picks up steam and the Panthers start to struggle.

The Panthers are yielding just 19.0 points per game over the past four after coughing up 32.5 PPG across the first two games, both losses. After drafting only defensive players in the 2020 NFL Draft, Matt Rhule and his defense are starting to see the dividends. The Panthers rank sixth in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 218.8 yards per game, and they’re ninth in takeaways with nine.

The issue seems to be at quarterback and running back. The combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Davis is a lot less impressive than Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey. The addition of Robby Anderson has been one of the better signings of the offseason.

The Saints are coming off a bye. They won their previous two games before their rest, including a thrilling 30-27 overtime win against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 5.

Related | Who are some early Week 7 waiver wire targets in fantasy football?

The over is a perfect 5-0 for New Orleans, as the Saints have scored 24 or more points in all five outings and 30 or more in four of those games. Their offense should also be helped with the return of Michael Thomas. As of right now, we don’t know if he will play here, but I would assume so with the team coming off their bye.

The Saints defense has also struggled, as they rank 24th in the league in scoring defense with 30.0 PPG allowed. New Orleans has struggled in the takeaway department, registering five, with a turnover margin of plus-one.

This one also seems too easy to me, but I am not going to argue with what is working. Yes, Carolina has the better defense, but the Saints have a significantly better offense and play very well at home in the dome.

Adding them to a teaser, and taking them down to under a field goal is another good option. I don’t see how they lose this game straight up as they look to take a more commanding lead of the NFC South.

Week 7 NFL Picks | Ryan Gosling

Saints -7 (-110)
Saints second end of a 6 point teaser (-1)

George Templeton 

New Orleans is off a bye week and only once has scored less than 30. The Panthers’ defense isn’t very stingy, and while Carolina struggled against Chicago’s defense, the Saints defense isn’t nearly as tough as the Bears. This has all the makings of a shootout and it’s a massive game in the NFC South division race.

Week 7 NFL Picks | George Templeton

Saints and Panthers over 51 total points (-110)

NFL Week 7 Picks and Betting Lines: The NFC East is here to disappoint

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at The Washington Football Team

Well, the Andy Dalton hype train has come to a crashing halt. Not only did he look terrible against the Arizona Cardinals, throwing two interceptions, but the entire offense looked out of sync. Ezekiel Elliott fumbled the ball twice and was held on the sidelines for Tony Pollard a good portion of the game, and the offensive line looked like a slice of swiss cheese. Arizona defeated the Cowboys by a final score of 38-10.

The Cowboys are now one of only two teams, the other being the lowly Jets, that have yet to cover a spread (0-6). Washington, on the other hand, have managed to cover two and push one with their ragtag trio of quarterbacks.

Dallas still has the third-ranked offense in the NFL, but those numbers are skewed not that Dak Prescott is no longer under center. After allowing another nearly 40 point performance by the opposing team, Dallas officially has the 32nd ranked defense in the league.

In this specific matchup, it looks like we will have Kyle Allen playing under center for Washington. Washington is coming off a loss to the New York Giants, where they actually had a very good chance of winning. Washington was able to find the end-zone with 34 seconds left to be down only one point. They decided to go for the win and the two-point conversion, but the attempt was not successful.

I know this league is all about the overs now, but there is no way I can expect Dalton’s Cowboys and Allen’s Football Team to put up enough points to win this game. Chase Young should have a field day feasting off this putrid Dallas o-line, especially if Zack Martin is out. This is going to be one of those games that I look to tease, getting Washington over a TD, and this total even higher. These opening betting lines are way off for this game.

Week 7 NFL Picks | Ryan Gosling

Washington +9.5 with over 55.5 (-120)

More NFL Odds and Betting Lines

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+9)

The Kansas City Chiefs will be heading to Denver to take on Drew Lock and the Broncos. They are nearly double-digit favorites, looking for their fourth road victory to improve to 6-1 on the NFL season. As soon as this game came out, I thought these NFL odds were a little off. Yes, the Chiefs have looked great, but the Broncos did just beat the New England Patriots.

Then, I remembered who the QB for the Chiefs is. Patrick Mahomes is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,699 yards, 15 touchdowns, and one interception so far this season. He has two or more touchdown passes in eight of his last nine games. If that wasn’t enough, his weapons have done nothing but impress. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have combined for 854 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Sammy Watkins has 21 receptions.

The team also added Le’Veon Bell to help rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the backfield. Realistically though, does the young back really need help? The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 140.3 yards per contest, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the way with 505 yards and one touchdown.

If those numbers are not impressive enough, maybe these ones will do it. The Chiefs are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite, 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 road games, and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

So we should take the Chiefs, right? Not so fast. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC, 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in October, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Broncos have actually won two in a row now that Lock has returned to the lineup. The offense is starting to click again, even though they struggled in the red zone against New England.

This might be biased because I was so high on Denver before the season started, but I really think they keep this game close. Five of the last eight meetings between the Chiefs and Broncos were decided by 10 or fewer points. The Chiefs will likely win this one, but I think the Broncos get the backdoor cover.

Week 7 NFL Picks | Ryan Gosling

Broncos +9 (-110)

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals 

When the NFL odds and betting lines opened this week, I immediately circled this game. This is easily the game of Week 7.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a bye and look for another victory to improve to 6-0 on the season. Russell Wilson looks to continue his MVP caliber season, completing 72.8 percent of his passes for 1,502 yards, 19 touchdowns, and three interceptions. The underrated QB has a whopping 10 touchdown passes in his last three games.

Arizona, on the other hand, are coming off an absolute blowout of the lowly Dallas Cowboys. Kyler Murray is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 1,487 yards, 10 touchdowns, and six interceptions. The offense looked good against Dallas, but at this point, the Jets offense could look good against Dallas.

This number is simply too short. Beating the Cowboys is not as impressive as it seems, and the odds and bookmakers got this one wrong. Seattle should be closer to a five-point favorite, even on the road. The Arizona Cardinals have lost four of their last six home games, whereas the Seahawks are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.

Seattle is rested off the bye and Arizona is coming off a short week having played on Monday. Give me Wilson and Seattle to beat Arizona by double-digits.

Week 7 NFL Picks | Ryan Gosling

Seattle -3.5 (-110)

More NFL odds and betting lines from our team

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles 45.5 total

This one’s pretty simple. These are two awful defenses. Neither secondary can cover anyone and both Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones are capable enough to take advantage of it despite the struggling lines in front of them.

The Eagles have scored enough points to hang around against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia for the last two weeks. The Giants got 34 at Dallas and are coming off their first win of the season. It’s going over.

Week 7 NFL Picks | George Templeton

Over 45.5 (-110)

 

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