The Week 6 NFL DFS slate features five games with a total of over 50, which gives us ample options on who to pick for our lineups. I’ll outline my favorite games to stack, values at each position, and my favorite leverage spots within the slate. Without further adieu, let’s get to it.
Week 6 NFL DFS: Top value picks at each position
QB production correlates heavily with their implied team total. but it also worth considering potential rushing upside as well.
Aaron Rodgers ($7500)– If I’m paying up, it’s for Aaron Rodgers. He shares the same team total as both Tannehill and Fitzpatrick. The matchup doesn’t matter as Rodgers has been playing at an MVP level and can exploit any team at the moment. He is also expected to come in at less than five percent ownership, making him a fantastic GPP play.
Matthew Stafford ($6300)– When it comes to Week 6 NFL DFS cash game picks, Stafford will probably be the chalk at QB. I don’t disagree with it either. The Lions have the second-highest implied team total on the slate; he gets a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense, and Detroit is slightly above average in situation neutral pass/rush rate, according to Sharp Football Stats.
Ryan Tannehill ($5900)– The Titans have the third-highest team total on the slate, and Tannehill offers some upside with his legs. This is more of a tournament play as the Titans don’t pass enough to guarantee Tannehill volume, and Derrick Henry ($7300) is always a threat to steal multiple touchdowns.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5900)– Same price as Tannehill and the same team total lands Fitzpatrick as a value for me this week. He is also prone to use his legs, but unlike the Titans, Miami passes at an above-average rate in neutral game scripts (59/41). The volume will be there in a plus matchup against the New York Jets.
What is most important to me when it comes to RB is volume, talent, and matchup.
Derrick Henry ($7300)– Despite just an 8% target share, he leads the league in opportunity share (carries + targets) according to FTN Daily. The Titans have a 28.25 implied team total, while Henry has the ability to cash in on this spot.
Joe Mixon ($6200)- He has the second-highest opportunity share to Henry on this slate, yet no one will play him due to a perceived bad matchup on the road. He has six and eight targets his past two games, which adds potential to his value.
Aaron Jones ($7600)– I expect his teammate Davante Adams ($8000) to be much more popular. The matchup isn’t as bad as you’d think, considering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be without star defensive tackle Vita Vea. He ranks directly behind Henry and Mixon in opportunity share.
Jonathan Taylor ($6400)– Taylor checks a lot of boxes for me this week.
- Plays in a dome
- Is a big favorite
- Has a decent implied team total
The matchup is phenomenal, and he is ninth on the slate in opportunity share. If Taylor doesn’t “pop” here, I don’t know if he ever will. I’ll be riding with him as one of my top Week 6 NFL DFS picks for GPP’s.
D’Andre Swift ($4500)– I can’t back this play up with concrete data, other than my hunch that the Lions will look to get the rookie more involved following their bye week. Detroit spent a second-round pick on Swift, and I can’t imagine they continue to roll out Adrian Peterson much longer. Swift should be reserved for only the largest field GPP’s, as he is one of my thinner Week 6 NFL DFS picks suggestions.
Volume is significant, but, in my opinion, talent trumps it, at least when it comes to the WR position.
Allen Robinson ($7000)– He ranks fifth in the league in weighted opportunities (a combination of a player’s target share and air yards share) and gets a favorable matchup as well. He should come in low-owned as usual.
Chris Godwin ($6400)– With Mike Evans ($6800) banged up; the Buccaneers could lean on Godwin more in his return to action. I expect this game to be high scoring, which means Godwin could be in line for a monster day.
Tyler Boyd ($5800)– He projects for the same amount of points as the Terry McLaurin and A.J. Brown, yet will come in at a 10th of the ownership.
Terry McLaurin ($5700)– He ranks second in the league in weighted opportunities (WOPR) and gets a beatable matchup against the New York Giants. Despite the atrocious QB play, he’s cash game viable considering the gap between price and projected volume.
A.J. Brown ($5600)– At this price, it’s hard to pass on Brown. However, Adam Humphries has already returned to the team, and they could get Corey Davis back as well. Both will eat into Brown’s opportunities. However, if you want to take the discount based on his talent level, that’s defensible. I’m less excited about this play now compared to when I first opened the slate.
Tee Higgins ($4700)– He’s played 57% and 81% of the snaps the past two weeks while commanding seven and eight targets, respectively. I don’t suspect we’ll get Higgins in this price range for much longer.
Preston Williams ($4600)– The same statement above could be applied to Williams. While the targets haven’t been what you’d like (three and five the past two weeks), he’s played over 60% of the snaps in each of those games. You’ll have to rely on efficiency if you roster Williams, but the talent is there, and the matchup is pristine.
Living, breathing, and with a path to score points. Those are the qualifiers I put at the tight end position.
Mark Andrews ($6500)– The best tight end play on the slate. If you’re paying up, it’s for Andrews. He has an excellent matchup against a slow Philadelphia linebacking corps.
Jonnu Smith ($5200)– Based on the talent, he should be priced closer to Andrews. He’s the fourth-ranked TE on the slate in WOPR and is in a positive offensive environment.
Logan Thomas ($3300)– At some point, he has to produce fantasy points, right? Thomas is second to only Andrews in WOPR among TEs on the slate. The matchup is fine as well.
Ian Thomas ($2900)– The Bears have a solid secondary and should contain Mike Davis ($7000) on the ground. Targets could funnel to the athletic Thomas in this game.
Irv Smith Jr. ($2500)– Smith has played over 60% of the snaps the past two games and finally received a respectable five targets last week in Seattle. He is involved in one of my favorite games to stack and is the “stone minimum” on DraftKings. You could always do worse.
As always, with defenses, you want to prioritize sacks and turnovers, not point prevention.
Colts ($4000)– The Bengals are one of the pass happiest teams in the league with the worst offensive line in the league, at least according to Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate.
Washington ($3300) / New York Giants ($3200)– Both defenses should apply ample pressure on the opposing team’s QB. Washington is second in the league in adjusted sack rate along the defensive line, while their offensive line is second-worst at protecting the QB. The Giants rank a surprising 11th in defensive line adjusted sack rate.
Dolphins ($2900)– Miami projects as the most popular defense to pick on the Week 6 NFL DFS main slate. Their defensive line ranks ninth in adjusted sack rate, and they play an abysmal offense in New York.
Minnesota ($2300)– Atlanta has the fourth-highest pass/rush ratio in neutral game scripts, while Minnesota ranks 13th in defensive line adjusted sack rate. There will be plenty of volume to be had for the Vikings defense, and I suspect Mike Zimmer has them playing better as the season wears on.
Top game stacks to target on the Week 6 main slate
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Total 55.5
This Packers and Buccaneers game is my favorite game on the slate to attack for my Week 6 NFL DFS picks. The Packers have been the best offense in the league in the early goings of the 2020 season, with Rodgers ranking first in QBR and adjusted net yards per attempt and the team averaging a league-high 6.8 yards per play. The Buccaneers are league average in yards per play, but we have seen Tom Brady ($6500) have spike weeks when Tampa Bay has to throw. Green Bay is surrendering the fourth-most yards per play on defense, making matters better for Brady.
Most will gravitate to Ronald Jones ($6000) and Chris Godwin ($6400) in this matchup, but Mike Evans ($6900) needs to be in your player pool if stacking this game. The return of Godwin, as well as fear of a lingering injury, is driving down his ownership projection. However, Evans posting another game with multiple touchdowns is well within the range of outcomes, yet his ownership won’t reflect that.
I’m also lukewarm on Jones as Leonard Fournette ($5000) should return to action this week. However, even if Fournette misses, Jones was not used in the passing game this past Thursday night in Chicago. If the Packers get out to a lead, as I expect them to, Jones could be left on the sidelines while Tampa Bay plays catch up.
For the Packers side, Aaron Rodgers ($7500) projects to be one of the lowest owned plays on the slate. It doesn’t make much sense considering Davante Adams ($8000) could be the most popular WR, and Aaron Jones ($7600) should also garner some attention. The way to build leverage off of Adams is to either roster just Jones and hope he gets the majority of the touchdowns, or stack Rodgers with the ancillary pieces of the Packers passing game and hope the touchdowns go to them. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4600) and Robert Tonyan ($5100) would be the players I target if I choose to go that route.
Having said all of that, I don’t think it’s necessary to leverage off of Adams since Rodgers will be so low-owned. You can be different enough by just stacking Rodgers and Adams together.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4) / Total 54
The Falcons and Vikings is my second favorite game on the slate to attack.
- Both teams have an implied team total of over 21
- the spread is short, meaning there could be some back and forth scoring
- it’s played in a dome, and both defenses have been less than stellar to start the year.
Dalvin Cook will not play this week, opening the door for Alexander Mattison ($7200) to start the game for the Vikings. Mattison projects to be one of the most popular plays on the slate, and for a good reason. He has a good matchup and plays in a dome with the highest implied team total on the slate. The Vikings also run the ball at the highest rate in the league in neutral game scripts, with a 46/54 run/pass ratio.
That said, if you want to leverage off of Mattison in this spot, Kirk Cousins ($6100) and the passing game is the way to go. With a concentrated target tree, it’s relatively easy to pick the players you need to target.
Justin Jefferson ($6000) is an excellent tournament play this week, as most players will either roster Mattison or go down a little bit to Brown and McLaurin if paying for a WR in his range. Adam Thielen ($7300) will garner some ownership, but for a good reason. I mentioned Smith above, but he also needs to be included in your game stacks.
As for the Atlanta side, I’m not too thrilled stacking Matt Ryan ($6600), as he is fast approaching the end of his career, and his play shows it. That said, if you’re rostering Mattison, it makes sense to target the Falcons passing game. If Mattison has a good game, odds are the Falcons need to throw to keep pace.
However, Atlanta will throw anyways as they are one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. Perhaps the return of Julio Jones ($6700) will elevate Ryan’s play. Calvin Ridley ($7800) is still in play for game stacks, while Olamide Zaccheaus ($3200) is no longer an option as a punt. Roster Hayden Hurst ($4700) at your own peril.
If you want “ultimate” leverage off of Mattison, then you stack the Vikings passing game and run it back with Todd Gurley ($6300). Despite the public perception of being “dust,” Gurley ranks as the RB11 in PPR at the moment. This combo will be one of the lowest owned roster constructions on the slate, yet if it pays off, you’ll be all alone at the top of the leader boards.