We have arrived at Week 6 of the 2020 NFL Season, and the Pro Football Network betting team is back to provide you with some winning over/under bets to help boost your bankroll. We did take a loss on our best bet of the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens over as the Bengals managed just three points for a multitude of reasons, but I am coming back determined to find us a winner for our NFL Week 6 over/under best bet. Bookmark the PFN betting team for all of our completely free content to help you cash in during the 2020 NFL season.
NFL Week 6 Over/Under Best Bet: Broncos vs. Patriots U46.5 -110 | 3 units
The 2020 NFL season has seen an offensive surge, resulting in over bets hitting at a much higher percentage than usual. Sportsbooks have been left scrambling to set totals higher to account for these higher scoring games, presenting value on under bets if you know where to look. These teams feature run-heavy offenses that lack explosive playmakers and instead rely on their stout defenses to win them games. Let’s dive deeper into why this is the NFL Week 6 over/under best bet.
Cam Newton brings a new offensive approach to New England
The well-documented departure of Tom Brady and the emergence of Cam Newton as the new quarterback in New England unsurprisingly has changed the offensive scheme for this team. The team has implemented Newton as a runner regularly. His dynamic ability coupled with the Patriots’ stable of running backs and solid offensive line play has led them to average the fourth-most yards per carry in the league.
The issue I see with this offense is that they have not been able to use this efficient rushing attack to set up the passing game. They are just 24th in offensive efficiency through four games. Obviously, the ineptitudes displayed by backup quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham in Week 4 contributed to this number.
Still, I think this is more of a reflection of the lack of playmakers at wide receiver. Julian Edelman has been banged up and has not been the productive receiver we are used to seeing. N’Keal Harry has yet to live up to the first-round hype. Then there is Damiere Byrd has been solid but lacks the athleticism to truly scare opposing defenses.
Broncos defense matches up well
You could argue that Newton’s accuracy issues that have plagued him throughout his career have contributed to this passing game’s lack of efficiency as well. Regardless, I do not expect this passing game to have much success against a Broncos defense that is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per passing attempt. The Patriots may have some success running the ball, but this will not come easily either against a Broncos defense that is 11th in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt.
This New England offense will find a way to score points, but it will be a result of long, methodical drives when they do. This offense is devoid of explosive playmakers and goes against a stout Broncos defense, so I do not expect the sort of big splash plays out of this team that can kill unders. Look for New England to milk the clock every chance they get on Sunday.
Broncos offense in disarray
This Broncos offense has been putrid in every facet of the game, and that is the main reason this under is my over/under best bet for Week 6. This offense is 26th in yards per pass attempt and 28th in yards per rushing attempt. They are also 30th in the NFL in the percentage of drives ending in an offensive score at 31.3%.
It is not entirely their fault as the injury bug has struck them, missing quarterback Drew Lock and wide receiver Courtland Sutton for the past few games. While Sutton will not return this season, the Broncos will more than likely get Lock back for this game, and the Broncos will be hoping his return can provide the spark this offense desperately needs.
However, the main issue with this offense is not at quarterback but rather the abysmal offensive line. Broncos running backs have been “stuffed” or hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, a shocking 26% of the time, 30th in the NFL.
They have not been much better in the pass blocking department either, with an adjusted sack rate of 8.3%, 24th in the NFL. With Sutton out and Melvin Gordon’s status likely in question following an off the field incident on Tuesday, the Broncos will be without the necessary playmakers to overcome their shortcomings on the offensive line even with Lock’s return at quarterback.
New England’s defensive stats lie
This New England defense is just as good as it always is despite them being mediocre in the stats department. They have played the two most prolific NFL offenses in the Chiefs and Seahawks through four weeks, and two excellent offenses in the Dolphins and Raiders.
Despite this, they have held their own and kept this New England team in games. I am sure they are highly anticipating getting a chance to go against an offense that ranks towards the league’s bottom. I also expect them to take advantage of this inferior Broncos offensive line play after play.
Expect this Patriots defense to stack the box and make Lock prove he can consistently throw to his inexperienced group of receivers with his injured shoulder. I do not suspect that he can, and with the stacked box and a horrible offensive line, expect a stagnant running game to leave this Broncos offense sputtering. A bad run game makes this an easy candidate for one of my over/under bets of Week 6.
This Broncos defense may keep them in the game for a while, but eventually, the New England rushing attack will wear them down and milk the clock in the process. As long as we can avoid some defensive or special teams touchdowns, I feel very confident that this under hits.
Drew’s other Week 6 plays
Browns vs. Steelers u51 -110 | 2 units
Sunday’s game between the 4-0 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 4-1 Cleveland Browns will have serious divisional and overall playoff implications, just the type of games where points will come at a premium, and I look to bet the under. Add-in the bad blood left over from the Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph situation last year, I expect to see one of the hardest fought, grittiest games of the 2020 season.
This kind of intensity might spell bad news for both offenses who have key players who will be relied upon, but at the same time are nursing nagging injuries. For the Steelers, Diontae Johnson (back), JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), and Eric Ebron (hand) will all be needed to keep this Steelers offense churning.
For the Browns, Baker Mayfield (chest), Kareem Hunt (thigh), and Jarvis Landry (Ribs) will be counted on if the Browns hope to keep up Sunday. While I expect most of these players to give it a go Sunday, the fact that they have these injuries going into this hard-hitting matchup is a reason for concern regardless of whether they suit up.
The main reason I identified this as one of my over/under bets for Week 6, and even considered it for the Week 6 NFL best bet, is the regression I expect to see from both offenses Sunday. The Browns have been a run-first offense that has had success over-powering the opposition.
Do not expect this to continue vs. the Steelers run defense that allows just 3.3 yards per carry, good for second-best in the NFL. I have no faith in this Browns offense and, more specifically, Mayfield to be able to take over the game through the air if they cannot set up the run game first.
On the other side of the ball, the Pittsburgh offense and Ben Roethlisberger have looked great through four games. However, looking back on these four games, I can say that every defense they have played has been exposed as being very poor in hindsight.
The Browns defense may not be much better, but I think they do enough to keep this hobbled Pittsburgh team under 30 in such a pivotal matchup. Final Score Projection: 27-21 Steelers.
Additional plays for this week
Colts vs. Bengals U47 -110 | 1 unit
Falcons vs. Vikings O54.5 -110 | 1 unit