As we near the end of September, making weekly NFL picks becomes a different exercise. Early on, there’s a bunch of guesswork and attempts to project the unknown. Now, we are approaching the information evaluation portion of the season as we look to make the most of the data points provided to us and beat the books.
You up for it?
Within each game, you get our staff picks and my official Week 4 play for the game. Make it through the entire article, and you’ll get my best ATS/total pick for each game!
Pro Football Network’s Week 4 Predictions
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Jets
- Randall: Jets
- Soppe: Jets
Aaron Rodgers didn’t misfire on a pass out of the pocket last week, and he seems to be trending in a far more positive direction in the early going than we could have assumed for a 40-year-old coming off of a major injury.
I’m going to stop short of saying that the Packers version of Rodgers is back, but there are breadcrumbs being laid that he could set this team up for levels of success that they haven’t seen for years.
Rodgers is 22-13-2 ATS (62.9%) when giving more than six points in the first seven weeks of the season for his career (he’s under .500 when doing so as the weather begins to turn, 22-23 ATS). He has a history of handling the early-season spots where he’s expected to do so, and this situation certainly qualifies as such.
Pick: Jets -7.5
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Vikings
- Randall: Vikings
- Soppe: Packers
Since 2014, these are the two best home September teams ATS in the NFL (Packers: 77.8% cover rate, Vikings: 70%). But as you may have heard, only one of these teams gets to play at home this weekend, and that is Green Bay.
Over that same stretch, the Vikes are the fourth-worst road team against the spread (40% cover rate, better than only the Jets, Bears, and Seahawks). With Jordan Love set to return and the betting industry seemingly a little shy about supporting him against one of the MVPs of the early season, this is a nice buy spot at Lambeau.
Pick: Packers -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Steelers
- Randall: Colts
- Soppe: Steelers
Death, taxes, and Mike Tomlin putting money in our pockets.
The man is as good as it gets at maximizing what he has and the development of Justin Fields is just the latest example. Tomlin led teams are 40-24-1 ATS (62.5%) in games with a spread of less than a field goal (unders have come through 60.9% of the time in those games), as he simply excels at grinding the margins.
MORE: NFL Week 4 Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, Notes For Every Game
The Colts are a team with a wide range of outcomes and might look great for seven-minute spurts in this one, but I want my money behind the team poised to put together a better 60-minute stretch, and that’s Pittsburgh.
Pick: Steelers -1.5
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Rams
- Randall: Bears
- Soppe: Bears
Since 2021, rookie quarterbacks are 32-19 ATS (62.7%) when favored, a nod to how NFL-ready they are when they enter the NFL compared to years past (17-27 ATS, 38.6% from 2018-20 in such spots).
Caleb Williams hasn’t lit the world on fire through three NFL starts (he hasn’t earned a grade higher than a ‘D’ in our QB+ Grading System), but there were some throws last week that were proof positive of the raw talent he possesses. It scares me to step in front of Matthew Stafford, but this Bears team has significantly more (healthy) talent on both sides of the ball and we are able to sit on a key number as opposed to getting pushed past it.
Pick: Bears -3
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Bengals
- Randall: Bengals
- Soppe: Bengals
We have an 0-3 team coming off of an embarrassing loss and we have the Panthers, not exactly the tee-up I would have expected to come into this game, but life comes at you fast.
Over tickets have come through in 10 of Andy Dalton’s past 14 games (71.4%) as a home underdog with an average over margin of 5.3 PPG. Nothing I’ve seen from either of these defenses (both are bottom six in EPA) suggests that stops are due to come in bunches this week, or any week for that matter. And with both offenses showing significant growth last week, this is my early favorite for the highest-scoring game of Week 4.
Pick: Over 48.5 points
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Buccaneers
- Randall: Buccaneers
- Soppe: Eagles
Number bending is a tradition like none other.
Well, at the very least, it is in the world of sports betting. There are two sides to every trend and if you pull out the magnifying glass, it’s not unusual to be able to flip a trend on its head and have it tell you the exact opposite.
That’s the case in this game: Jalen Hurts is only 6-12-1 as a road favorite (33.3%) in his career, but it’s the splits that have me intrigued in this spot:
- Weeks 1-8 as a home favorite: 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%)
- Weeks 9 or later as a home favorite: 1-9 ATS (10%)
We know the Birds are a better team early in the season than late, and I think we are getting a bit of a discount here in one of the best NFC teams taking on a Bucs defense that currently ranks 30th in rush defense EPA and will try to stop the seemingly inevitable Saquon Barkley this week.
Pick: Eagles -2.5
SAQUON BARKLEY 65-YARD TOUCHDOWN.
📺: #PHIvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/830L0j9R8o— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Saints
- Randall: Saints
- Soppe: Saints
These are two teams that are hard to feel good about analyzing through three weeks, as both have shown plenty of good and bad. That said, what this coin flip of a division has taught us in the past is that you take the points and be on your way.
Since 2020, when two NFC South teams face off and the spread is less than a field goal, underdogs are 10-2 ATS with unders also going 10-2 in those games. I don’t mind playing the ‘dog moneyline to get a little plus-money on your betting card, but I’m not ruling out a game that gets goofy late and leads to a situation where this game is decided by a single point.
Pick: Saints +1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Texans
- Randall: Texans
- Soppe: Texans
Both of these teams want to put Week 3 in the rearview as fast as possible. In the case of Jacksonville, they’d love to put the past 10 months or so behind them, but this Texans team isn’t exactly a great spot for them to get right.
The Jags’ struggles make a Trevor Lawrence trend of interest to me: unders are 15-7 when he starts in a game where his team is catching more than a field goal. Both of these teams currently rank outside of the top 20 in offensive EPA and with a mid-40s total, it really only takes one of them to struggle to get this ticket to the window.
Pick: Under 45.5 points
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: 49ers
- Randall: 49ers
- Soppe: 49ers
Since 2010, unders cash 59.3% of the time when the home team is catching at least eight points. Take it a step further and you’ll see that they are 9-3-1 when a game like that is played in September over that stretch.
The 49ers have been installed as 10-point favorites in this game despite coming off of back-to-back losses, a sign that they are a great bet to dictate tempo and control the ball throughout.
Pick: Under 39.5 points
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Cardinals
- Randall: Cardinals
- Soppe: Cardinals
Unders are 22-6-2 (78.6%) since 2022 in September games that feature a projected total of at least 50 points (6-0 in such spots this season). It’s become clear that these are the games that are powering the recent under trends across the league – from 2019-21, over tickets chased 58.1% of the time when in such spots.
I’m a sucker for a good trend and with Washington generating all sorts of excitement coming off of their Monday night upset, I’m happy to fade what I expect to be a publicly influenced total.
Pick: Under 50.5 points
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Chiefs
- Randall: Chiefs
- Soppe: Chiefs
I’m on the list of people who thought we’d see pigs fly more often than we’d get a Patrick Mahomes versus Justin Herbert game with a total under 40 points, but here we are, and I can’t say that I blame the books.
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
Understanding that, the implication is that this is a one-sided divisional game and, historically, those games feature more scoring than expected. In the last 28 instances in which divisional rivals faced off with a spread of at least eight points, and that’s where this game opened the week, overs are 20-7-1 (74.1%).
Maybe that’s a predictive trend or maybe it’s serving as confirmation bias – either way, betting that one of these quarterbacks makes enough plays to surpass these low expectations is the direction I’m headed.
Pick: Over 39.5 points
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Browns
- Randall: Browns
- Soppe: Browns
The Raiders had conversations this week about their quarterback position and if not for a massive contract, the same talks would likely be happening in Cleveland. While the trust under center is low, one of these teams gave up 36 points to the Panthers last week while the other has allowed a total of 34 points over their past two games.
Gardner Minshew has failed to cover eight of his past 11 home games (27.3%) with an average cover margin for his opponents checking in at 7.05 PPG. I don’t think the Browns are capable of running away with a game, but I like their potential on both sides of the ball to get the job done in what might be one of the uglier games on Sunday.
Pick: Browns +1
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Bills
- Randall: Ravens
- Soppe: Ravens
What more could you ask for than two of the best quarterbacks in the game in an island spot?
The public wants to bet on fireworks in a spot like this and the trends suggest that they get their wish. Courtesy of our Week 4 Stats and Insights Packet, we know that overs are 8-3 in the past 11 games when Josh Allen is labeled as an underdog. Marry that with the fact that the Ravens put an average of 28.1 points on the board when Lamar Jackson starts in prime-time (their implied total this week: 24.5 points) and we could be in for a fun one.
Pick: Over 46.5 points
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Dolphins
- Randall: Titans
- Soppe: Dolphins
This is a low total and the fact of the matter is that it might not be low enough. Unders are 5-0 when Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins enter a coin-flip game (coin flip: a game with a spread less than three points), a trend that could well continue for a team that scored just three points last week, a made field goal that came on a drive that saw Miami move the ball six feet after being set-up with an interception.
Will Levis has yet to earn better than a ‘C’ mark in our QB+ Grading System, so counting on him to lead the point scoring is a scary proposition. This is a game where I will be splitting my bet – half on a pregame under and half in a live setting should an early score occur due to the proper execution of a scripted set of plays.
Pick: Under 36.5 points
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Moneyline Picks
- Beasley: Seahawks
- Randall: Seahawks
- Soppe: Lions
Through three weeks, these teams have played more overtime games (two) than been involved in games decided by more than a single possession (one). That makes laying more than a field goal, but I think we are getting some value as this spread is down a point from where it stood this summer, and nothing has changed on my end as to how I view these teams.
Jared Goff-led teams are 18-10-1 ATS (64.3%) in prime-time and for you Same-Game-Parlay people, unders have come through in 12 of those 18 covers. I like the prospects of the Lions jumping out early in this game like they did last week against the Cardinals (with touchdowns on each of their first two drives) and being able to get this game to the finish line with an offense that ranks second in rush EPA this season.
Pick: Lions -3.5
Soppe’s Week 4 Betting Card
- Cowboys -6
- Jets -7.5
- Packers -2.5
- Steelers -1.5
- Bears -3
- Bengals/Panthers Over 48.5 points
- Eagles -2.5
- Saints +1.5
- Jaguars/Texans Under 45.5 points
- Patriots/49ers Under 39.5 points
- Cardinals/Commanders Under 50.5 points
- Chiefs/Chargers Over 39.5 points
- Browns +1
- Bills/Ravens Over 46.5 points
- Titans/Dolphins Under 36.5 points
- Lions -3.5