NFL DFS: Week 3 Cash game and GPP picks

Heading into Week 3 of the 2020 NFL season, the fantasy football world is in disarray. Running backs Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffery both went down to injury. The top-ranked receivers are also banged up with Michael Thomas and Davante Adams, both questionable heading into Sunday. The shortened offseason seemed to shows its ugly face in Week 2. However, all that does is open up value for our Week 3 NFL DFS picks.

In the DFS world, with injury comes opportunity, and there are plenty of new faces entering starting lineups in Week 3.

NFL DFS cash game picks for Week 3 of the 2020 season

When constructing a lineup for cash games in Week 3 on DraftKings and FanDuel, it’s crucial to target players with established roles in an offense. You don’t need to go for the home run play; focus on consistency in these contests. Building your cash game lineup on DraftKings around players with a high target share in their respective offenses is an excellent recipe for success.

Kyler Murray ($6,800)

He is a bit pricey this week, but I like Murray against the Lions in Week 3. He’s coming off a 30+ game last week thanks to a pair of rushing touchdowns, but this week Murray gets it done through the air. The Cardinals started the season against the 49ers, and Washington, both of whom appear to have good defenses this season. The Lions are by far an easier matchup for Murray, and he should take advantage of their struggling secondary.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900)

Stacking Hopkins with Murray is an excellent move for cash game lineups this week. These two have connected on a touchdown in both games this season, and I see that continuing on Sunday. Hopkins is averaging double-digit targets per game and has clicked with Murray to start the season.

Joshua Kelley ($5,000)

One of the biggest surprises this season is the emergence of Kelley as the lead back for the Chargers. He and teammate Austin Ekeler have formed another two-headed monster in Los Angeles. The Panthers will be playing their first game without McCaffery, and it could be a rough transitioning to Mike Davis. A lively game script could be in store for Kelley once again in Week 3.

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Cooper Kupp ($6,300)

It’s been a slow start to the season for Kupp, but he has an excellent shot for a breakout game in Week 3. The Bills have struggled against slot receivers this season, allowing Jamison Crowder to go off for 115 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Lock-down corner Tre’ Davious White will likely cover Robert Woods for most of the game, leaving the inexperienced Levi Wallace to cover Kupp.

Giants D/ST($2,700)

The Giants are the best value defense on the board for DraftKings in Week 3. They by no means are an elite defensive unit, but they should hold the injury-riddled 49ers in check. Oddsmakers project this to be the lowest-scoring game of the weekend, and there’s always a good opportunity for a defensive touchdown against backup quarterbacks. Plug the Giants D/ST into your lineups and move on.

Week 2 DFS Results

When reviewing the results from week to week on DraftKings or Fanduel, a good way to analyze how well a player did is by their points per dollar. This calculates how well a player did, compared to his salary.

NFL DFS Week 3 GPP Picks

Top Game Stacks

Here are my favorite game stack picks for the NFL DFS Week 3 slate.

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

As I said in our weekly totals article, this game has several factors I look for when betting overs in the NFL:

• Both offenses are efficient and pass more than they run.
• Both defenses are terrible and can’t pressure the QB
• Seattle is one of the slower teams in the league in terms of pace, but Dallas has played at the fastest pace in the league (1st in total pace and situation neutral pace via Football Outsiders)

The only checkmark it doesn’t mark off is the game location: they don’t get the benefit of playing in a dome. That said, I love this game for DFS. However, so does everyone else, so you need to be conscious of your total ownership when stacking this game.

Russell Wilson ($7300) and Dak Prescott ($7200) are, deservedly so, the two highest priced QBs on the slate. This makes it harder to stack this game, and it may be beneficial to target one player from each side in your lineups to soak up most of the touchdowns hopefully. This worked last week if you rostered Calvin Ridley ($7200) and Prescott.

If you want to do that for this game, my favorite targets are Chris Carson ($6600) and Amari Cooper ($6500)/Michael Gallup ($5500). You could also play either of these QBs “naked” (not stacking them with any pass-catchers) and hope you get the same game Prescott delivered last week. Well, not the same game, but maybe they throw touchdowns to some ancillary offensive players and run one or two in themselves. As for who to play between Tyler Lockett ($6400) and DK Metcalf ($6500), the answer is both. Lockett has a higher weekly floor, Metcalf has a higher weekly ceiling. Both are fine.

It should go without saying, but Ezekiel Elliott ($8300) needs to be in your player pool. He is the best RB on the slate in terms of projected points, yet won’t garner a lot of ownership due to the other RB values this slate represents. Having Zeke as your one-off in lineups where you stack other games could easily pay off.

You can not fade this game because of its popularity, but you do need to be creative when attacking it in tournaments.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

This game possesses every aspect the Cowboys and Seahawks game owns, with the bonus of playing in a dome. For that reason, this game might be more popular than the Seattle game. I would still have exposure to this stack in tournaments, but the Arizona side might be the highest owned team on the slate.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7900) has the highest projection on the slate, but is also the most expensive WR and will be immensely popular. I like pairing my Kyler Murray ($6800) and Hopkins teams with the likes of Dan Arnold ($2800) and Andy Isabella ($3800) as a way to be different from the field.

For the Detroit side, the industry doesn’t seem to be too high on any skill position players. I like D’Andre Swift ($5000) as a contrarian RB play to pair with Matthew Stafford ($6300). Swift has earned 10 of the 13 RB targets in the Lions’ first two games. In a game where they will have to pass to keep up, Swift could see a higher workload than usual.

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Kenny Golladay ($6200) isn’t getting a lot of hype, probably because of his injury status. He admitted that he wasn’t 100%, but even an 80% Golladay at minimal ownership can be enough to win you a tournament. The other Lion I like is T.J. Hockenson ($5300). He has just nine targets on the season but has converted all of them for 118 receiving yards and a touchdown. In a pace up game, he could see more volume come his way.

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills

No QB is playing better than Josh Allen ($6900) at the moment. The addition of Stefon Diggs ($7000) has made this offense into a juggernaut. While the competition hasn’t been great, good teams produce against bad teams, and Allen has produced these first two weeks.

I expect Jared Goff ($5600) and the Rams to give the Bills their first test this Sunday, which only ups the appeal for the offense. The Bills leave something to be desired in terms of pace, but both teams have an implied team total over 21, and it is just a one-point spread. There could be plenty of back and forth, and you’ll get it at minimal ownership.

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Robert Woods ($6100) has slightly outpaced Cooper Kupp ($6300) in targets (13-11), but both should be in your player pool if stacking this game. The law of averages says Tyler Higbee ($5900) will not score another touchdown for quite some time, but it is always good practice to pair your QB with his TE.

Week 3 DFS RB Values

Derrick Henry ($7800)– He was massive chalk last week and failed miserably. The spot is slightly worse, but not so much where we should be afraid of going back to him this week. The Vikings defense is atrocious, while this game will be played in a dome. His high number of carries somewhat mitigates his lack of targets.

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Jonathan Taylor ($7000)– Not as good of a matchup as last week, but he is at home, in the dome as an 11 point favorite. Taylor dominated the snaps and opportunities in the first game without Marlon Mack.

Nick Chubb ($6900)– You want to play Chubb in positive game scripts. This should be one of them as Cleveland is a seven-point favorite at home. The matchup isn’t great, but the volume should be there, and no one will be playing Chubb this week.

Miles Sanders ($6400)– He was the bell cow I expected him to be in his Week 2 debut, handling 83% of the RB carries, 70% of the RB targets, and a 77% snap share (credit to Adam Levitan). He is the chalk on the slate but for a good reason. Don’t be shy about exposing yourself to Sanders this week. He’s my favorite RB play on the slate.

Kenyan Drake ($6000)– The target share and snap share isn’t quite what you would like from a premier back, but when you consider the Cardinals have run the most plays in the league the first two weeks, the snap share appears more impressive. Chase Edmonds ($4600) has been the go-to RB for targets, but Drake has dominated the carries and gets a soft matchup against a Detroit defense that allowed Aaron Jones to go bonkers last week. The Cardinals and the Seahawks have the highest implied team total (30.5) on the slate.

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Mike Davis ($5100)– I’m not as bullish on Davis as others might be. His projected role is far from steady; in my opinion, we have other RBs in this range, which I find more appealing, which is enough for me to stay away from Davis this week.

Joshua Kelley ($5000)– Austin Ekeler ($6800) dominated the snaps in Week 1, but he and Kelley both commanded over 50% of the snaps in Week 2, with Kelley out touching Ekeler 25-20. Ekeler will be the favorite to lead the backfield in targets, but the Los Angeles Chargers like Kelley, and I see no reason for them to scale back his workload. The matchup is pristine as well, evidenced by the Chargers 25 point implied team total.

Jerrick McKinnon ($4900)– Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4000) is expected to receive the bulk of the work this Sunday, but that could mean a 55/45 split as much as it means a 65/35 split. McKinnon is the better player of the two and is the favorite to lead the backfield in targets. Against a porous New York Giants defense, I like McKinnon this week in tournaments.

Devin Singletary ($4900)– With Zack Moss ruled out this week, Singletary is in line to lead the backfield in opportunities. If he receives a full three-down plus goal-line role, his $4900 price tag is grossly low. Be cautious, as TJ Yeldon could steal some targets from him, but I’m not too worried about that myself. I have no problem being over the field on Singletary this week.

Antonio Gibson ($4700)– After playing just 26% of the snaps in Week 1, Gibson elevated to a 65% share in Week 2. He even out-carried Peyton Barber (13-1), received two red zone carries and was the only RB to obtain a target against Arizona. Gibson might have the most upside of anyone in this range if this opportunity share continues to surge.

WR Values

Calvin Ridley ($7200)– You will need to monitor the status of Julio Jones ($7400) before kickoff. If Jones were to miss the game, Ridley would be a candidate to lead the slate in targets at the WR position. He is appropriately priced as the slate’s WR3, but $7200 is relatively cheap in a vacuum. If Jones doesn’t suit up, he becomes an excellent low-owned tournament play.

D.J. Moore ($6100)– It is a tough matchup, but Moore has commanded the fourth-most Air Yards in the league with a monster 29.25% target share. With Christian McCaffrey ($9200) out indefinitely, Moore could see even more targets in the star RB’s stead.

AJ Green ($6000)– Green leads the league in Air Yards and has received the fourth-most targets (credit to FTN Daily) on one of the pass happiest offenses in the league. Regression should come for what used to be one of the premier WRs in the league.

Terry McLaurin ($5900)– His price is starting to catch up to his actual talent level but is not quite there yet. He is the only WR QB Dwayne Haskins Jr. ($5200) has any rapport with and gets a beatable Cleveland Browns secondary this Sunday.

Diontae Johnson ($5400)– He has commanded a 31.85% target share the first two weeks and seems to have regulated JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6600) to a complementary role once again. The Houston Texans’ defense is among the worst in the league.

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DeSean Jackson ($5200)– Jackson is second in the league in Air Yards, and with Jalen Reagor ($4200) out for a significant amount of time, he is in the same terrific spot he was in before Week 1, expect at a third of the ownership.

N’Keal Harry ($4200)– He is tied with Julian Edelman ($6200) for the team lead in targets, albeit at a pitiful 5.5 average depth of target (aDot). A soft matchup makes him appealing, but high ownership should temper your excitement.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($4000)– He played 92% of the snaps and tied for the team lead in targets (6) after Parris Campbell ($4100) suffered an early game injury in Week 2. The aDot (7.13) leaves his ceiling in doubt, but the matchup is good enough to keep him in play.

Adam Humphries ($3900)– 55% snap share in both games, so his role isn’t affected by A.J. Brown’s ($6000) absence. I’m not excited to play him, but you could certainly do worse with 10 points at his price.

Andy Isabella ($3800)– With Christian Kirk ($4500) ruled out; the door is open for Isabella to earn a prominent role. He easily has the most upside of any of the WRs I have talked about in this range. I mentioned above how much I love the Arizona and Detroit game stack, but I plan on having plenty of Isabella in all of my lineups.

Bryan Edwards ($3700)– With Henry Ruggs III ($5000) ruled out for this week, Edwards should see a higher target share against New England. However, the matchup and game environment gives me pause, even at a low price. That said, you could do worse for $3700.

TE Values

Dallas Goedert ($4900)– He has more Air Yards, targets (third among all TEs), and fantasy points than Zach Ertz ($5100) through the first two weeks, and is still $200 cheaper. I prefer to pay down at TE, but if you have the funds, Goedert is an acceptable option.

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Logan Thomas ($3700)– He makes his third straight appearance in the article. Thomas is tied with McLaurin for the team lead in targets, ranking third among all TE’s in raw targets.

DST Values

Indianapolis Colts ($4100)– They are a massive home favorite against a putrid offense. Not much more needs to be said.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3700)– Jeff Driskel is starting, and the Buccaneers possess one of the best pass rushes in the league.

New England Patriots ($3200)– The Raiders offensive line took some hits on Monday night, and it’s a tough travel spot for them.

Atlanta Falcons ($2800)– Their defense is probably undervalued considering the level of opponent they faced the first two weeks. MVP Mitch is no buzz saw, and this offensive line isn’t great (19th in adjusted sack rate).

Philadelphia Eagles ($2800)– The Bengals are among the most pass-heavy teams in the league, with one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

Detroit Lions ($2400)– They get a below-average offensive line and one of the pass happiest offenses in the league. You could do worse.

New York Jets ($2000)– The cheapest defense against a mistake-prone Rivers. You’re playing them for the salary and not much else.