Things could always be worse. Our expert handicapper Chris Smith had Pittsburgh in a teaser Thursday Night, so he went to bed with a Mason Rudolph sized migraine. That said, he only wagered a half unit after initially saying he’d stay away from the game altogether. What can we say? Our guy loves the action. Chris is hovering right around .500 on the season after a losing week in Week 10. He’s confident in his card this week, however, stocking up Tommy Teaser and Patty Parlay action early. As always, follow Chris’ live plays on the All-Access twitter page. Now onto our Week 11 NFL Picks.Through 14 weeks of the NFL season (minus MNF on 12/9), the PFN betting group has over 25 units of profit (~625$). With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Sign up for the All-Access Pass that'll pay for itself and more.
Patty Parlay: Money Line – Buffalo & Dallas (+100) risk $40 to win $40
It’s amazing what a difference a few weeks can make. We’ve gone from “The Miami Dolphins are a travesty, and the NFL should investigate” to every pundit out there referencing the fact that Miami is suddenly a spread covering machine behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. I firmly believe the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. The Dolphins have benefitted from turnover-prone quarterbacks the past two weeks, but Josh Allen has played well against Miami historically, albeit in a limited sample size.
It’s been well documented that the weakness in the Buffalo defense is against the run. Lucky for the Bills, the Dolphins have no running game. Taking the Buffalo Bills in money line parlay means I won’t have to sweat a late-game backdoor cover in this one. I’ve won the last two times I faded Buffalo, but give me the Bills to win outright on Sunday against a team they’ve beaten outright in four of the previous five meetings.
To complete the other half of the parlay, I’ll take the Dallas Cowboys to knock off a Detroit Lions team without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. This line was off the board in most spots earlier this week, but I posted on our All-Access twitter page on Wednesday to grab the Cowboys wherever you could once it became apparent that Stafford wouldn’t be active Sunday. The line is likely much closer to -120 or -130 at this point, so hopefully, you had access to FanDuel midweek and got the best possible NFL odds.
Coming off their Primetime loss to the Vikings at home on Sunday Night, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys should have a take no prisoners mentality in Detroit this weekend against a second consecutive NFC North opponent. The Lions haven’t played well at home against teams with winning records recently, losing nine of the last eleven of those games straight up.
With last week’s questionable play calling behind them, Jason Garrett and Kellen Moore just need to get out of the way of Prescott and Amari Cooper, while not force-feeding the ball to Ezekiel Elliot, and the Cowboys should bounce back here. I’ll take the Bills and Cowboys for two units in this ML parlay.
Tommy Teaser (6.5 point) – Jets +9 & Texans +11 (-130) risk $30 to win $23.10
We will start with Sam Darnold and the NY Jets, who I expect to win this game outright on Sunday afternoon at FedEx Field in a mild upset. The Jets secondary is hideous, but do you trust Dwayne Haskins against anyone at this point? I don’t. Besides, Jamal Adams has to be licking his chops at the idea of facing a rookie NFC East quarterback for a second consecutive week after the way he manhandled Daniel Jones last week.
Jets owner Christopher Johnson came out of the front office this week and gave Adam Gase the dreaded vote of confidence and guaranteed his job security in 2020. Perhaps the only franchise that’s more of an internal train wreck than the Jets is the Washington Redskins. Teasing the Jets through the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7 makes them a valuable half of this teaser.
The Baltimore Ravens come into this weekend hotter than any team in the NFL on a five-game winning streak. Lamar Jackson is a legitimate MVP candidate, and after Thursday Night’s fiasco between the Steelers and Browns, Baltimore seems destined to capture the AFC North by Christmas at the latest. This is a team primed for a letdown in week 11.
The Houston Texans are a live dog coming on the road coming off a bye this week. Houston is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a road dog. One week off and suddenly, Deshaun Watson finds himself the forgotten man in the MVP race. I’m betting he reminds everyone just how good he is this weekend.
I like the Texans to potentially upset the Ravens, so I’d recommend throwing a moneyline sprinkle on the Jets and Texans at +503 in addition to grabbing the 6 or 6.5 points you need to get Houston to the key number of 11 points on the teaser.
Tommy Teaser (6.5 point) – Bears +13 & Under 47 (-130) risk $30 to win $23.10
This is essentially the exact same play that backfired on Tommy Teaser Thursday Night with the Steelers on the road in Cleveland. So naturally, let’s go right back to a defensive team getting more than a touchdown on the road in primetime and pair them with an elevated Under.
Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams offense has been completely stymied the past month or so as teams have continuously pressured Jared Goff into incompletions and turnovers. The Chicago defense hasn’t been anything close to the dominant unit it was last season, although I expect they can still make things uncomfortable for the Rams offense Sunday Night. As long as the Under hits here, the chances are Mitch Trubisky, and the Bears offense can keep the final score within two touchdowns.
Running List of PFN Bets for This Week
Click to view the running list of our bets for this week and the 2019 NFL Season. Be sure to bookmark that page and visit it often throughout the week to stay updated on our latest moves.
Best of luck with your Week 11 NFL Game Picks. Be sure to follow the PFN All-Access Twitter account (@PFN365AA) for live updates, Ben Rolfe’s totals article, James Aguirre’s betting guide, Jason Sarney’s player props article, and listen to the Against the Spread podcast with Jason Sarney and Ryan Gosling for more Week 11 NFL picks!
Chris Smith is Pro Football Network’s expert NFL handicapper and founder of the Free Cash Crew. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisSmithPFN.