For the second consecutive week, our expert handicapper Chris Smith enters the weekend with a win already under his belt. Chris cashed in a Monday/Thursday teaser when the Chargers stayed within a touchdown the other night. He also hooked up with James for their first-ever “Sunday’s are for the Dawgs” victory last week at +563 odds. Read about that, and all the Free Cash Crew results in the weekly Sheep Report. Mr. Smith is coming off back-to-back winning weeks and is up 3+ units on the season. If you follow along on the All-Access twitter page, you know that Chris is at his best when LIVE betting, especially after halftime. Chris will also look to make it ten straight survivor pool winners as part of his Week 10 NFL game picks.Through 14 weeks of the NFL season (minus MNF on 12/9), the PFN betting group has over 25 units of profit (~625$). With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Sign up for the All-Access Pass that'll pay for itself and more.
Tommy Teaser (10 point) – Ravens -.5, Colts -1.5 & Falcons +23.5 (-130) risk $30 to win $23.10
Tommy Teaser has now hit on four of his last five plays and has a sure-fire 3-team winner here. We’ll start with the Baltimore Ravens, who we just need to win outright after teasing the 10 points in this “sweetheart” play. Whether you think this is a classic trap game, or look ahead spot or letdown week, none of that really matters when you take the point spread out of the occasion.
The Ravens could turn the ball over multiple times and potentially still beat the hapless Bengals by double digits. I initially thought about teasing this from the opposite direction and grabbing Cincinnati plus three touchdowns, but the A.J. Green news was the final straw for me. Even if they cover the ten points, I just don’t see a realistic scenario where John Harbaugh allows this Ravens team to lose to the winless Cincinnati Bengals.
While I also don’t honestly see any way for the Atlanta Falcons to upend the New Orleans Saints, getting 23.5 points is too much value to pass up with Matt Ryan returning under center for the “Dirty Birds.” There is no denying the utter disappointment that this season has evolved into for Atlanta. However, the offensive side of the roster is still loaded with talent for the Falcons.
The perennial Super Bowl contending Saints haven’t been involved in many blowouts this season, winning the majority of their games by just one score or less. I’ll take the obnoxious amount of points here and pray things don’t get out of hand late in the Superdome.
For the final leg of this three-team teaser, we drop down to the 4 pm window to grab the Indianapolis Colts at -1.5 points. One of the beauties of a teaser like this is that if you cover the first two legs in the 1 pm window, it provides endless hedging, middling, and live betting opportunities during the afternoon slate.
That said, I don’t see the Colts having much difficulty with the Miami Dolphins in this one regardless of who starts at quarterback for Indianapolis. The Colts run game should have their way against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in running back success rate allowed. Frank Reich is one of the best coaches in the entire league, so expect him to have his Colts ready for a Dolphins team coming off their first victory.
Browns -2.5 (-115) risk $28.50 to win $25
It’s deja-vu all over again this week. Last Sunday, I grabbed this very Cleveland Browns team at nearly identical NFL odds and point spread. Then, Baker Mayfield and company went out and played like absolute garbage against a third-string quarterback in Denver. So what could possibly make me want to go back to the well of pain again this week?
With Freddie Kitchens’ job reportedly on the chopping block, I suspect the Brownies give their best effort in a home game in front of a rabid Dawg Pound. I called the Buffalo Bills the worst 5-1 team I’d ever seen two weeks ago just before their thrashing at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles. They haven’t changed my mind off a home victory over the Washington Redskins.
In fact, I believe Nick Chubb shreds the Buffalo defense early on, setting up a possible OBJ score (+225 on DraftKings) for the first time since week two. One thing you’ll hear a bunch of heading into this week is how the Bills are undefeated this year on the road. All the more reason to expect them to suffer a defeat on Sunday in Cleveland finally. Browns 23-Bills 20.
Alt. Spread Parlay: Rams -2 and Panthers +11 (+123) risk $25 to win $30
Learning from our mistakes has become a bit of a mantra around PFN Gambling Headquarters over the last few weeks. So my guess is I’ll probably be hearing from our customer service department when they see I’m taking the Los Angeles Rams again.
I’ve lost my last three plays involving Jared Goff and company, but I just can’t seem to quit Sean McVay. Especially off a bye week against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that I suspect is being slightly overvalued. The narrative of this week will be that Goff is a far less effective passer when under pressure, but McVay will be aware of this too. He will game plan ways to avoid the Steelers pass rush, and while Brandon Cooks will be missed, Josh Reynolds has filled in admirably when his number has been called.
I could also see a much heavier workload for Todd Gurley coming off the extended rest. Instead of laying the 3.5 or 4 points available in most places, I’ll take the alternative spread of -2 and pair them with the Carolina Panthers in the 4 pm window.
If you’re looking for value in terms of NFL futures plays, look no further than Christian McCaffrey for MVP currently at +1400 on FanDuel player props. I have Ed’s son projected for another monster fantasy day at Lambeau this weekend. This has officially become McCaffrey’s team with the news of Cam Newton being shut down, and the uncertainty of his future in Carolina.
Aaron Rodgers isn’t likely to be bottled up like he was last weekend against the Chargers. Regardless, we don’t mind if he has a big game, and the Green Bay Packers win outright. The Green Bay defense seems to have regressed weekly after week one’s coronation of Coach Pettine and the Smith Brothers (no relation) against the Chicago Bears.
By parlaying the alternate spread at +11, we only need the Carolina Panthers to keep the game within single digits to fulfill their end of the bargain. Patty Parlay loves the plus money NFL odds here with the alternative NFL lines.
Week 1 – Seattle Seahawks ✅
Week 2 – New England Patriots ✅
Week 3 – Dallas Cowboys ✅
Week 4 – San Diego Chargers ✅
Running List of PFN Bets for This WeekClick to view the running list of our bets for this week and the 2019 NFL Season. Be sure to bookmark that page and visit it often throughout the week to stay updated on our latest moves.
Best of luck with your Week 10 NFL Game Picks. Be sure to follow the PFN All-Access Twitter account (@PFN365AA) for live updates, Ben Rolfe’s totals article, James Aguirre’s betting guide, Jason Sarney’s player props article, and listen to the Against the Spread podcast with Jason Sarney and Ryan Gosling for more NFL picks!
Chris Smith is Pro Football Network’s expert NFL handicapper and founder of the Free Cash Crew. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisSmithPFN.