The NFL picks market is full of small sample sizes. Often, we see the majority of NFL bettors decide their picks against the spread based on what they saw the previous week. Seeing as how the NFL is riddled with small samples, it’s easy to fall prey to recency bias. So how can we distance ourselves from the pack and make smart wagers? By determining which teams might have gotten lucky by using regression to the mean in some statistical areas. I’ll attempt to pinpoint teams who are worth a play and those who are worth a fade in the sports betting market going forward. Using these analytical metrics, we can put together our NFL Week 10 betting guide for picking against the spread.
After a miserable stretch where it felt like breaking even was impossible, I managed to fight my way to a small profit in Week 9. You can read about all of our successes and failures in the weekly Sheep Report. Christopher Smith and I cashed on our (+563) underdog money-line parlay, titled Sundays are for the dogs. We each pick our favorite underdog of the week and combine them in a money-line parlay.
On top of the underdog parlay, I hit on the Minnesota Vikings/Kansas City Chiefs total and the Sunday Night affair, which saw the Baltimore Ravens crush the New England Patriots. As always, I’ll talk about my losses below before we dive into our NFL Week 10 betting guide.
Week 9 NFL Picks Recap
San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) (-105)
I don’t think my process was terrible here; the 49ers had an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball and a coaching advantage. The superior team has a better track record of covering on Thursday nights due to the inferior team having less time to prepare. The fact that this was Kliff Kingsbury’s first Thursday Night game made me like that angle even more.
The cover was within range until Kyler Murray hit Andy Isabella for what would be an 88-yard touchdown pass. Kenyan Drake also killed the 49ers in the running game, finishing with 110 rushing yards on 15 carries. Sometimes you lose games like this, but I thought my process was sound here. We beat the closing line as well, which hasn’t panned out this year, but it is still something you should aim to do.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) (-110)
I would make this bet ten out of ten times if I could do it again. The Colts lost Jacoby Brissett mid-game, suffered a pick-six at the Steelers four yard-line, missed a two-point conversion, and missed a field goal at the end of the game, which would have given them a one-point lead. We ended up on the wrong side of the closing line, but the difference between (-1) and (+1) is negligible.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) (-110) & Money line (+200)
I have mixed feelings about this pick. On the one hand, I missed out on the opener of (+6.5) because I thought I could get a (+7). That was wrong, as the spread closed at Seattle (-4). On the other hand, I was correct in that the spread was too big. Jameis Winston moved the ball up and down the field, and Tampa Bay just lost to the heroics of Russell Wilson. The process was sound as we beat the closing line but lost the bet.
Philadelphia Eagles Alternate Spread (-15.5)
This was a stupid selection. I figured the Chicago Bears were dead in this game and wanted to get good odds on a blowout. I saw the Eagles were up big, which is what I expected coming into the game, so I tried to capitalize on it. I took a live bet on a game I wasn’t invested in to try and make up for not getting down on it throughout the week.
Michael Gallup O 4.5 Receptions
I think my process for this player prop pick was sound; it just didn’t go our way. Gallup received two fewer targets than he usually gets, as Dallas started the game in a funk. In all honesty, I blame Jason Garrett’s lack of preparation during the bye week and the black cat.Through seven weeks of the NFL season, the PFN betting group has over $100 of profit (4 units) despite the industry in a 2019 funk. With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Not sure? Take a 6-day free trial. Sign up for the All-Access Pass that'll pay for itself and more.Sign up for the All-Access Passthat'll pay for itself and more.
Week 10 NFL betting guide
Let’s see what value bets we can find for Week 10.