Updated NFL MVP Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets: Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Others

Will there be a challenger to Tua Tagovailoa in the MVP race? A look at the current NFL MVP odds and our favorite value bets to win the award.

We still have nearly two-thirds of the season remaining, but it’s never too early to look at the NFL MVP odds. At this point in the season, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is the betting favorite with +350 odds at DraftKings. After Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes has the next-best odds at +450, followed by Josh Allen (+700), Jalen Hurts (+750), and Brock Purdy (+1100).

From being +2200 to win NFL MVP before the season to now being the betting favorite, Tagovailoa has been the biggest riser in the race through six weeks but is far from the only player that has climbed up the odds leaderboard. Purdy, for example, had the 20th-best odds before the season, equal to players such as Kenny Pickett and Daniel Jones.

While Christian McCaffrey had the shortest odds of any non-QB before the season at +8000, his odds have moved rapidly as well, as he is now +1500. McCaffrey is hoping to become the first non-QB to win the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

Although Tagovailoa looks like the undisputed NFL MVP favorite at this point in the season, we still have a long way to go. With 12 weeks left in the season, are there any players who would be great value bets at the moment to win NFL MVP? Let’s get into some favorite MVP bets from the PFN Betting team.

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What Are the NFL MVP Odds?

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

  1. Tua Tagovailoa +350
  2. Patrick Mahomes +450
  3. Josh Allen +700
  4. Jalen Hurts +750
  5. Brock Purdy +1100
  6. Christian McCaffrey +1500
  7. Lamar Jackson +1800
  8. Jared Goff +2000
  9. Trevor Lawrence +2200
  10. Joe Burrow/Justin Herbert +2500

NFL MVP Predictions and Best Bets

Blewis: At this pace, Tagovailoa will run away with the award, but we have 12 weeks left in the season, so there’s no value in betting on him at +350. I also don’t see any reason to bet on anyone else in the top five either, as none of them have played well enough for their odds to be so low at the moment. With no value at the top, I’m going to head in a different direction.

Quietly, Jared Goff has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL dating back to last season. I mean, just look at his stats over his last 17 games, in which the Detroit Lions have also been very good.

If Goff keeps up his stellar play, he could be well-positioned to enter the MVP race considering how good the Lions are this season. Not only are they 5-1, but they have the second-best DVOA so far this season — better than all but one of the other one-loss teams.

They’re currently in the driver’s seat to win the NFC North at -550 — only the San Francisco 49ers have shorter odds to win their division — and they have the second-easiest schedule remaining, according to Tankathon.

There was much greater value on Goff to win MVP before the season at +4000, but I wasn’t a believer then in the Lions. Now I am a firm believer in this Lions team being a legitimate contender and like Goff’s odds enough to place this bet.

NFL MVP Bet: Jared Goff (+2000 at DraftKings)

Katz: There’s no way I’m betting on Tagovailoa at such short odds. Mahomes is always in play, but he’s already won it twice. You could never, ever, ever get me to bet a non-quarterback either. McCaffrey is not winning this award, it is a waste of money. That leaves us with Allen and Hurts as the two best options based on odds.

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My preseason pick was Hurts, and I threw a free bet on him back in August. While Hurts has played well, he and Allen have been pretty similar. They’re both more good than bad, but there’s been too much bad to feel overly confident about either of them. So I’m thinking outside the box here.

The Baltimore Ravens should be considered the favorites to win the AFC North. Lamar Jackson is playing incredible football but has been victimized by poor wide receiver play. This offense could very well start to click soon. All it would take is a couple of those epic performances we know Jackson is capable of to catapult him to the top of the odds.

Right now, Tagovailoa is definitely most likely to win it, but given the prices available, I’d sprinkle on Jackson.

NFL MVP Bet: Lamar Jackson (+1800 at DraftKings)

Soppe: The 49ers lost last week; that’s a fact. They lost to an elite defense in a game in which two star players exited early. Even in defeat on the worst day of his career, Purdy took this hobbled offense 52 yards following the two-minute warning for a field goal attempt that is made far more often than it is missed.

For his efforts, Purdy saw $4 added to his MVP price (+700 to +1100) and is now a strong buy. Is this team still not the best in the game? Humor me. What if they run the table and Purdy matches his per-game production from the first five weeks? That would put him at roughly 4,200 passing yards and 30 passing TDs for a 16-win top seed.

Four of the past five one-loss regular season teams saw their top player earn either the Jim Thorpe Memorial Trophy or the MVP. His raw numbers won’t blow you away, but they don’t have to. The other players at the top of the odds board are, to some degree, a victim of their own success.

Mahomes’ numbers this season (pace: 4,500 yards and 32 touchdowns) don’t touch what he did last season, and the same can be said for Hurts. Allen is currently an underdog to win his own division, so that makes him a tough option to back as well.

Tagovailoa is the favorite for a reason, but can he land the plane and win the narrative battle? The Dolphins could well have the first 2,000-yard receiver as well as an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.

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Let’s say the Dolphins drop three games this season (they still have games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Ravens, and Buffalo Bills — a 3-2 mark in those games is reasonable) and the Chiefs land the top seed in the AFC. Does that not leave the door open for Purdy?

I’m not suggesting he should be favored, but at a nearly 3.5x payout compared to Tagovailoa, I could be talked into it. The number is likely as low as it gets for Purdy, assuming the team bounces back, and if they can run the table and build the “inches away from perfection” narrative, his numbers figure to be suitable enough to earn him some hardware.

The time is now if you’re investing in anything 49ers-related.

NFL MVP Bet: Brock Purdy (+1100)

Bearman: I bet Goff at 40-1 in the preseason, and I like that bet with the Lions sitting at 5-1 and an OT play away from 6-0. It makes no sense to take him again at 20-1, but if I didn’t already have a 40-1 ticket, I’d jump all over it.

I also have Tagovailoa at 15-1, and those odds are obviously long gone. Of the rest of the board, if trying to expand my portfolio, I’d go with Mahomes at +340. Yes, he has won it twice, but there’s a reason for that — he’s better than everyone.

The MVP could come down to the Germany game with Tagovailoa vs. Mahomes, but since I already have Tagovailoa and Goff tickets, I’ll add Mahomes.

NFL MVP Bet: Patrick Mahomes (+450)

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