Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier had about as good of a rookie season as you can ask for from a fifth-round pick. His reward? The Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson eighth overall. Now a pure backup, what is Allgeier’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Tyler Allgeier’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Should the Falcons have drafted Robinson eighth overall in the NFL Draft? Of course not. Allgeier was more than competent last season.
Day 3 picks rarely matter in the NFL, or in fantasy football. But not only did Allgeier buck the trend, he did so as a rookie. Merely averaging 10.0 PPR fantasy points per game and finishing as a mid-RB3 is an accomplishment. But Allgeier was even better, given that he didn’t really become part of the offense until Week 4.
As a rookie, Allgeier carried the ball 210 times for 1,035 yards and three touchdowns. For a fifth-round rookie, he saw considerable volume and was efficient. Allgeier’s 28.8% evaded tackles per touch rate was 15th in the league, and his 2.78 yards created per touch was 28th — a very respectable showing.
Allgeier did all of this despite the Falcons’ offensive line generating just 1.6 yards before contact for him, which is curious because they actually have a quality offensive line, checking in at No. 7 in PFN’s offensive line rankings.
Of course, the real issue isn’t Allgeier’s ability. While that does help us know what he can do if given work, we also know he’s not gonna get much work behind Robinson. The Falcons may allege that Allgeier will still be heavily involved. And perhaps early on, he’ll see a 40-50% snap share. But it’s only a matter of time before Robinson completely dominates this backfield.
Last year, Michael Carter started over Breece Hall at the beginning of the season. While Hall’s season was unfortunately cut short due to an ACL tear, by the time he got hurt, he was the clear lead back, and it wasn’t close. That’s what we can expect from Robinson, and my guess is it will happen by Week 3 at the latest.
Sadly, it’s not as if Allgeier can settle in as the satellite back, either. While he’ll be Robinson’s primary backup, Allgeier saw just a 4.6% target share last season. That’s just not his role.
The only positive is that Atlanta wants to run the ball like it’s 1970. Last year, they led the NFL with a 56% neutral-game-script run rate. Even if Robinson pushes 300 carries, there still may be enough meat on the bone for Allgeier to see 6-8 a game. Although that’s not enough to be fantasy relevant, it’s at least something.
Should You Draft Tyler Allgeier This Year?
Allgeier is a handcuff. As long as Robinson is healthy, Allgeier won’t have any standalone value and, at best, will be a weekly RB4/5. If you’re drafting him, you’re doing so that in the event of a Robinson injury, you fall into an RB2.
With that said, Allgeier is one of the better handcuffs in the league. When it comes to handcuffs, we often overstate our ability to predict not only who the handcuff will be, but the percentage of the starter’s production he can provide.
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I’m confident Allgeier has no shot at being the top-five RB we expect Robinson to be. But if Robinson were to go down, he’d likely be an RB2 for fantasy.
Allgeier’s RB44, No. 141 overall ADP is fair. At that point in the draft, taking a shot on a running back with injury-related upside is worth it. It’s not as if anyone in that range has any serious standalone value.
I currently have Allgeier as my RB41, exactly in line with consensus. He’s a fine pick as your fantasy team’s RB4 or RB5.
