Tyjae Spears was all set to inherit the Tennessee Titans‘ RB1 role after Derrick Henry’s departure. Then, the team signed Tony Pollard. What does this mean for Spears’ fantasy football projection?
Tyjae Spears’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.9
- Rushing Yards: 648
- Rush TDs: 2.9
- Receptions: 74
- Receiving Yards: 550
- Receiving TDs: 1.4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Spears This Year?
The most important thing Spears did as a rookie was put to rest any concerns about his knee. It still may end up shortening his career, but there’s no reason for fantasy managers to factor it in for his age-23 season.
Spears averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game as a rookie, finishing as the overall RB38. Those aren’t startable numbers, but he was good enough to justify being on fantasy rosters and was a plug-and-play Flex option during injury/bye week situations.
What Spears was able to accomplish is actually quite impressive, given that he was playing alongside one of the best running backs in NFL history.
Derrick Henry amassed 280 carries, yet Spears was on the field for 53% of the snaps and was able to command a 14.7% target share.
At 201 pounds, Spears doesn’t profile as a three-down back, and it’s exceedingly unlikely he’s ever used that way. Nevertheless, we did get a glimpse of what Spears is capable of as the lead back in the one game Henry left early last year.
In that game, Spears played 67% of the snaps, carrying the ball 16 times for 75 yards. He scored 12.8 fantasy points. Not bad, considering he didn’t score.
When Spears got the ball in his hand, he was quite effective. He averaged 4.58 yards created per touch (fifth in the NFL) and had a 26.3% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate (fourth). Despite limited volume, Spears was able to showcase his talent.
Projecting Spears’ numbers for the 2024 season is one of the most difficult tasks of the process. In most backfields, players have defined roles. At the very least, we can reasonably predict what role they will play if given the opportunity.
The Titans added Pollard to form a dynamic duo with Spears. It’s easy to project these two to command over 90% of the Titans’ RB touches, but it’s not easy to figure out how the work will be divided.
Pollard and Spears are similar players with similar skill sets. They both are quality pass catchers and are better off not being high-volume backs.
I projected Pollard for a little bit more work on the ground and Spears a little more work through the air. I have Spears totaling 1,132 yards, catching 52 passes, and scoring 6.2 touchdowns. That comes out to 11.89 fantasy points per game, very similar to PFN’s consensus projections.
I’m expecting this backfield to look very much like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ over the second half of the 2022 season. That year, Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette alternated drives. Regardless of whose turn it was, that back played on all three downs.
I don’t expect this to be a situation where Spears and Pollard have defined roles. Instead, one guy will play a handful of snaps, and then the other will check in. It’s doubtful each will have a drive to himself, but it’s probable that we’ll see something like 3-5 plays from one back and then 3-5 plays from the other. At the end of each game, I expect their touch counts to be similar.
I ranked Spears and Pollard back-to-back at RB27 and RB28. Interestingly, their ADPs are quite far apart. Pollard sits at RB26, while Spears is at RB35. Spears landed at RB25 in PFN’s consensus projections.
This is your quintessential ambiguous backfield. I didn’t love what we saw from Pollard last season, but both of these players carry upside.
The Titans’ offense projects to be much more pass-heavy in a post-Henry world. That’s a good thing for Tennessee’s two running backs who are both receivers.
Additionally, both Spears and Pollard carry injury contingent upside in the event the other gets hurt. Neither is ever going to see 90% of the work, but if one misses time, the other will definitely see at least a modest uptick in volume. That makes both appealing options as fantasy RB3s this season. Given Spears’ price, he’s the one I am targeting more, though.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Tyjae Spears
The Titans’ offensive line was among the worst units in all of football last year, which is why the team decided to address the tackle position with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft by selecting JC Latham out of Alabama to join Peter Skoronski, last year’s first-round pick, on the line.
After the release of Henry earlier this offseason, the table was starting to look like it was perfectly set for a potential breakout season for Spears in 2024. That was, however, until the Titans signed free agent running back Tony Pollard shortly after free agency began back in March.
Pollard finished his final season with the Dallas Cowboys as the RB14 in fantasy football after producing just 1,316 total yards and six TDs on 307 total touches, which felt like a big fantasy disappointment considering the first- or second-round draft capital managers spent on him last season.
Pollard’s efficiency hit a career-low last year, averaging just 3.99 yards per carry. Despite his struggles in 2023, though, Pollard is still a capable back who was previously a very explosive and efficient ball carrier in the Cowboys’ backfield next to Ezekiel Elliott.
It will be very interesting to see how this backfield shakes out, with Spears coming off of an encouraging rookie year and Pollard coming off the least efficient year of his career.
