The Miami Dolphins will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Is Tua Tagovailoa Playing in Week 9?
Tagovailoa is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Dolphins’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Tua Tagovailoa in Week 9?
I thought Tagovailoa looked as good as you could have realistically hoped for in his return to action last week. We saw his impact on this offense as a whole right off the bat (two double-digit gains on the first two plays), and we got the vintage dime to Tyreek Hill, a 30-yard dot down the right sideline on an early third down.
Not everything is going to be perfect, especially behind a shaky offensive line. But against the second-lowest blitz defense in the league, I have enough confidence to plug in Tagovailoa this week in most formats.
The Bills excel at defending the perimeter, and I think that will help fuel their postseason success against teams like Pittsburgh and Houston. But Miami’s motion might render that strength useless and result in them chasing the Dolphins’ burners as opposed to locking them down.
There’s plenty of risk in this play, and Buffalo owns the fourth-best red-zone defense in the league. But if you’ve waited out this situation, I think you have to call his number in what shouldn’t be a bad weather spot and has a game total approaching 50 points. Right now, I have Tagovailoa tiered with Jared Goff, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams as the end of the tier of QBs I’m comfortable starting in Week 9.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 7 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 9
Tagovailoa is projected to score 15.4 fantasy points in Week 9. This includes 237.9 passing yards, 1.4 passing touchdowns, and 0.9 interceptions. It also includes 2.1 rushing attempts for 8.1 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insights: Buffalo Bills Defense
In Week 8, the Buffalo Bills put together their fourth defensive performance inside the top 10 and their sixth inside the top 15 this season. Their current 12th overall ranking is still their worst performance since 2020, but they have gradually moved up the rankings in the last few weeks and are on the verge of the top 10.
The Bills’ biggest concern defensively is their relative struggles when they faced the Ravens, Cardinals, Texans, and Jets, where they have ranked outside of the top 10. Can this defense hold up against mid-level or better offenses, or will it be an Achilles’ heel for the team when they face better teams in the future?
One thing that will help them is that they rank sixth in red-zone efficiency this season, although they struggled in that area against the Ravens. They have been good against the run game generally this year but again struggled in that aspect when facing the Ravens. This Bills’ defense is going to be strenuously tested in the coming weeks, with the Chiefs and 49ers on the horizon.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Week 9 Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (at KC)
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at PHI)
4) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. BUF)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: Much has been made of the Dolphins’ ability to play on the East Coast as the weather turns—they don’t play another true East Coast game on the road until Week 17 (at Cleveland and at New York to finish the season).
QB: In his return to action, Tua Tagovailoa completed 28 passes, his most in a game since Week 8 of last season.
Offense: Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play on Sunday, their best mark since Week 1, the only other Tua Tagovailoa full game. In Weeks 2-7, they picked up just 4.4 yards per play.
Defense: The average NFL team records a sack on 21.5% of dropbacks in which they create pressure. Through eight weeks, Miami is 12.3%, the second-lowest in the league (Atlanta).
Fantasy: De’Von Achane produced 56.1% over expectation in the return of QB1 – in the four games Tagovailoa missed, his rate was 39.1% below expectations.
Betting: Miami covered 13 of Tua Tagovailoa’s first 19 starts in November or later. They have been 5-9 ATS in such spots since, with three straight failures to cover (outscored 103-40 across those games).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills are coming off of a stretch where they played four of five games on the road – three of the next four are in front of #BillsMafia (Chiefs in Week 11 and 49ers in Week 13).
QB: In Week 2, James Cook ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries while the Bills had the ball for under 24 minutes. That combination of events resulted in Josh Allen failing to throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in 14 career games against the Dolphins.
Offense: The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4. They followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week.
Defense: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate when bringing the heat (48%), a strength they carried over from last season (47.3%).
Fantasy: Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023).
Betting: Each of Buffalo’s past three covers against the Dolphins have checked in under the total (31-10 win in Week 2 with a 49-point closing total).