The Miami Dolphins enter the final stretch of the season trending upward, having won five of their last six games to remain on the fringes of the AFC playoff race. Their momentum, however, will be tested Monday night in Pittsburgh, where winter conditions are expected to be severe.
As the Dolphins prepare to face the Steelers in primetime, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa once again finds himself in conversations about his ability to win in cold-weather environments.
A Look At Tua Tagovailoa’s Performances in Cold Weather
Since entering the NFL, Tagovailoa’s record at low temperatures has been less than impressive. In games played at 40 degrees Fahrenheit or colder, the Miami Dolphins quarterback is 0-5. When the threshold is extended to 45 degrees or below, his record improves only slightly to 1-6.
Overall, Tagovailoa is 2-8 in games played at 50 degrees or colder and just 4-13 when temperatures dip under 55 degrees.
Those losses in sub-40-degree games have come exclusively on the road, including two trips to Buffalo, as well as games at Tennessee, Kansas City, and Green Bay. Several of those contests came against playoff-level teams, but the lack of a single win in actual cold-weather conditions has fueled questions, particularly given Tagovailoa’s background as a Hawaiian native who played his college football in the Southeast.
That narrative softened slightly in Week 14. Miami’s 34-10 win over the New York Jets came with kickoff temperatures around 41 degrees.
Tagovailoa’s passing numbers were modest, 13 completions on 21 attempts for 127 yards and one touchdown, but the win was his first in a game played at 46 degrees colder. For that game, PFSN’s QB Impact metric gives him a score of 70.2 with a C- rating.
Tagovailoa has dismissed the idea that the weather played any meaningful role.
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“It’s football, bro,” Tagovailoa said on Thursday, via NFL.com. “It is what it is. We got to play them in Pittsburgh, whether it’s negative-20, whether it’s 20 degrees. We got to play football.”
The task becomes more difficult in Pittsburgh. Forecasts call for temperatures near 18 degrees with steady winds, creating the coldest environment Tagovailoa has faced this season. Miami, now 6-7, needs a win to keep its postseason hopes alive.
Recent Dolphins victories have come with a clear formula. Coach Mike McDaniel has leaned heavily on the ground game, reducing the burden on Tagovailoa. Over the last four games, all Miami wins, Tagovailoa has not surpassed 175 passing yards in any contest.
During that stretch, the Dolphins lead the NFL in rushing yards per game at 192.3 and average 10.5 rushing first downs per contest.
