The New England Patriots exceeded every expectation in Mike Vrabel’s first season as their head coach. Drake Maye emerged as an MVP runner-up, the franchise posted a 14-3 record, and New England reached the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2018 season. However, the Seattle Seahawks turned that game into a lopsided 29-13 loss for the Patriots, but the season was still a resounding success.
The main concern has always been the schedule. Last season, New England had one of the easiest schedules in the league’s history, facing only three teams with winning records. However, this advantage won’t persist.
Mike Vrabel, Patriots Predicted to Have a Super Bowl Hangover
FOX Sports NFL analyst Eric Williams laid out the case for the Patriots’ regression in his predictions for the upcoming season. He noted that Vrabel is dealing with off-the-field distractions after photos surfaced in April showing him with former NFL reporter Dianna Russini at an Arizona resort.
Since then, more photos, videos, and details of their alleged relationship have been released by many media outlets, and the Patriots’ head coach has dominated headlines. While Russini resigned from the Athletic, Vrabel had to miss the third day of the 2026 NFL Draft to attend counseling.
Williams also pointed to the Super Bowl loss, noting that Seattle dominated New England up front on both sides of the ball.
“Fast-forward to this season and Vrabel is now dealing with off-the-field distractions,” Eric Williams wrote. “The Patriots are also coming off a Super Bowl where they were dominated up front on both sides of the ball, losing in ugly fashion to the Seattle Seahawks. And after enjoying a schedule that allowed them to travel no further than New Orleans in 2025, the Patriots will travel the fifth-most miles this season (27,590).”
“The inevitable addition of No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown should help an offense that lacks explosive plays and moved on from the team’s best receiver in Stefon Diggs this offseason,” he continued. “But the Patriots have the sixth-hardest schedule in the league. The Patriots face nine playoff teams from last season. Only the Seahawks (10) face more.”
The Patriots, in fact, will play eight playoff teams from last season, which include the Seahawks, Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers, and Chicago Bears.
According to PFSN Metrics, New England has the 11th-toughest schedule in the upcoming NFL season, with its opponents from last season having a combined record of 153-135-1.
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The AFC Wild Card math alone could push New England out. Buffalo is widely projected to reclaim the AFC East, meaning the Patriots would need to fight for a Wild Card berth against the Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Texans, Colts, and Jaguars, all contending for division titles or Wild Card spots.
“The previous two Super Bowl losers failed to have a winning record the following season, with the 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs stumbling in each of the last two years,” Williams added. “Expect the Patriots to follow a similar path.”
According to PFSN’s QB Impact Metric, Maye posted an impact score of 90.9 last season, ranking second in the league. For his team to have success this season, the 23-year-old quarterback will once again have to play at an MVP-level.
With a distracted head coach, a significantly harder schedule, and history working against them, it will be interesting to see whether New England can avoid the same fate. The season opener at Seattle on September 9 will offer an early signal of how the season will go for the Patriots.
