The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Travis Kelce.
Is Travis Kelce Playing vs. the Texans?
Kelce was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Travis Kelce in the Divisional Round?
The tight end player pool this weekend is muddied and could have any one of a handful of options lead the position in scoring. Does that make it the time to buy Travis Kelce?
Or is it the perfect time to continue the fade?
This looks like a payup to be a different spot in my eyes. The Texans are a bottom-10 pass defense in most metrics, highlighted by a top-five grade in touchdown rate, air yards per throw, and YAC.
In other words, they struggle in every spot where Kelce can burn them.
The usage of Hollywood Brown is concerning, the growth of Xavier Worthy needs to be tracked, and we can’t count on DeAndre Hopkins — but we KNOW that Patrick Mahomes is comfortable with Kelce in this exact situation.
- Decembers in 2022-23 (nine games): 5.2 catches, 71.2% catch rate, 66.3 yards, and zero TDs
- Playoffs 2022-23 (seven games): 8.4 catches, 86.8% catch rate, 87.4 yards, and seven TDs
We got a taste of playoff Kelce in Week 17 against the Steelers (8-84-1 on a 28.9% target share) before being rested in Week 18. There are narratives, patterns, and trends. Kelce checks all of the boxes, and you might get one of the most clutch performers to ever do it at an ownership discount.
From a game theory point of view, Kelce makes for an interesting one-off option. DFS fields are going to be crowded with Chiefs supporters and faders, but threading the needle of getting the right exposure might well prove to be the optimal strategy.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Travis Kelce’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Saturday, Kelce is projected to score 18.3 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 7.3 receptions for 78.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).
This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.
Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.Â
Travis Kelce’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.Â
Conference Championship TE PPR Rankings
1) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. BUF)
2) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at KC)
4) Zach Ertz | WAS (at PHI)
5) Noah Gray | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Dawson Knox | BUF (at KC)
7) John Bates | WAS (at PHI)
8) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. WAS)
9) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at PHI)
10) Quintin Morris | BUF (at KC)
11) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. BUF)
12) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Anthony Firkser | NYJ ()
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
