Entering the season, Travis Etienne Jr. looked like one of the running backs primed to dominate his backfield touches. But after another week where Tank Bigsby decisively outperformed Etienne, is it time for fantasy football managers to trade away the Jacksonville Jaguars’ starting running back?
Should Fantasy Managers Buy Low on Travis Etienne Jr.?
According to Pro Football Network’s Trade Analyzer, a fair one-for-one swap for Etienne would involve another running back in a timeshare, such as David Montgomery or Tony Pollard.
However, that tool is dealing with a full-season sample, which may not reflect the reality that Etienne is not obviously the Jaguars’ lead running back anymore.
After playing 65.8% of the offensive snaps over the first four weeks, Etienne was down at 38.6% in Sunday’s win over the Indianapolis Colts. That was his lowest in a game over the last two seasons.
At this point, it’s hard for Jacksonville to justify not giving more carries to Bigsby, who leads the NFL with an astounding 8.0 yards per rush. Etienne himself is actually averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per rush but hasn’t made the most of his opportunities. Based on his usage, Etienne’s PPR points per game this year are about 15% below expected, compared to 71% above expected for Bigsby.
Tank Bigsby this season:
* 1st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt
* 3rd in PFF grades
* 50.0% Success Rate
* 1st in Yards Per CarryTravis Etienne this season:
* 18th in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt
* 55th in PFF grades
* 56.6% Success Rate
* 27th in Yards Per… pic.twitter.com/EhijcgYYEL— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 7, 2024
NFL Pro tells a revealing story with its expected rush yards metric. By that stat, Etienne and Bigsby have gotten almost the exact same level of help from their blocking this season.
Bigsby’s expected yards per carry is 3.8, while Etienne’s is 3.9. As a result, the latter has produced 28 rushing yards over expected this season, while Bigsby has produced 142, fourth-most of any player this season.
If there’s a silver lining for Etienne fantasy managers, it’s that he’s still performing relatively well, which doesn’t incentivize the Jaguars to outright bench him. After Sunday’s game, Doug Pederson seemed to affirm that Etienne will remain Jacksonville’s starter moving forward.
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on whether Tank Bigsby will replace Travis Etienne atop the depth chart:
“No, not at all. Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game, that’s just the way games go.”
Pederson has a 35% reliability rating on depth chart coachspeak pic.twitter.com/GALzbYRd4C
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 6, 2024
That being said, it feels highly improbable that Etienne will reclaim the type of 70/30 split he’s enjoyed the last two seasons, with the most likely outcome being him settling into a pure timeshare with Bigsby. That makes him a reasonable buy-low candidate if the Etienne manager in your league believes that he’s turned into a pure backup, but not for the price of someone like Montgomery or Pollard.
Instead, another buy-low option with a stronger grasp of his backfield touches could be a worthwhile trade target if you’re the Etienne manager.
Rhamondre Stevenson bounced back on Sunday with a 12-carry game for 89 rushing yards and a touchdown, out-touching Antonio Gibson 16-7 despite threats that he would be benched for his fumbling problems.
Other targets, such as J.K. Dobbins and Najee Harris, follow a similar logic.
Etienne remains a running back worth rostering, but his days as the Jaguars’ undisputed lead back seem to be in the rearview mirror.