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    2020 NFL Draft: Expect plenty of trading with teams moving up or down
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    2020 NFL Draft: Expect plenty of trading with teams moving up or down

    PFN’s lead NFL writer Cole Thompson breaks down the possibility of some teams trading up or down in this year’s draft, and what kind of domino effect that can have on a player’s value.

    By Cole Thompson

    Have you ever heard of the domino effect? It’s when one piece falls and creates a chain reaction. One by one, the dominos fall in order while usually creating a beautiful image or hidden message. This kind of effect is normally displayed on NFL Draft night when teams decide to move up or down the draft board by making trades.

    The reason the domino effect could be vital when talking about sports is to better prepare for the inevitable. When one position begins to see their stock rise, others will slowly follow. This will lead to an increase in asking prices and force teams to address their concerns in the present moment instead of the future. Some moves will have an impact on a player’s draft stock, and others could contribute to a player falling.

    It’s all about the tools of the trade when discussing prospects potential – the more tools you have, the better chance a team will trade up to snag you. All it takes is one domino to fall and the entire 2020 NFL Draft could be entirely different.

    Early draft insider trading?

    The Cincinnati Bengals will be tasked to set the draft off on the right foot. Not even Mike Brown could mess this one up. He couldn’t unless he wants to have fans demand refunds because of their terrible selections. 

    The ideal scenario would be to bring LSU’s Joe Burrow home. The Athens native, who grew up just over 150 miles away from Paul Brown Stadium, has done more for the community of his hometown than most political figures get done in a term. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner would fit a need for the team’s longevity and become an instant marketing success with his background.

    But then again, so could multiple draft picks.

    In a recent column by NBC’s Peter King, Cincinnati has reportedly expressed interest in  Oregon’s Justin Herbert. The senior Duck, who likely would have been the first or second quarterback taken last year, elected to return to Eugene, with hopes of enhancing his stock. While his accuracy improved and his turnover rate diminished, Herbert’s overall tools wouldn’t merit the first overall pick.

    If the Miami Dolphins were willing to be a trade partner, it would cost them a draft —literally a Ricky Williams or Robert Griffin III-type deal. Miami can do so with five first-round selections through the 2021 season, plus a mountain of upgraded defensive needs for Brian Flores’ front scheme. 

    But, say Cincinnati made a mistake and took Herbert first. Does it address a need? Sure, but one that could have been made later. Now teams would be forced to pay top dollar for the second pick held by Washington for the Bayou Bengal. The price would go up, and the team from D.C. would have the draft capital to build under Ron Rivera. 

    With Tua Tagovailoa left, both the two QB-hungry teams would likely need to set a deal in place with Detroit to grab the Alabama signal-caller to lead the offense. Despite having multiple lower-body injuries, Tagovailoa has perhaps the most upside to succeed at the next level. 

    Playing in a legitimate semi-pro offense with four first-round receivers will give you that advantage. 

    If any team were to trade up for a quarterback, the ripple effect would begin. One by one, organizations would offer future picks for the present as they grab their man to stay in command. Granted, some prices will be more profound than others, but it’s a move that will need to be made. 

    Quarterbacks won’t garner all the attention

    Quarterbacks will be the talk of the town come draft night, but they’re not the only position that teams will be trading up for. Any franchise that believes they are an offensive tackle or wide receiver away, might have to cough up a mid-round pick to get their guy. 

    Although both positions have quality depth, the top names at each respective path will see action early in their rookie season barring injury. The New York Giants will likely be the start of tackle talk, while Jacksonville could be the beginning for receiver rumblings. 

    Teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who overnight became one of the top offensive units with the addition of Tom Brady, will need a right tackle to pair with Donovon Smith. Already viewed by some as the top prospect, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs has the most experience playing that side of the ball. The Arizona Cardinals have a need on their right side following the re-signing of D.J. Humphries to remain the blindside protector for Kyler Murray’s sophomore season. 

    If New York selects a tackle, expect teams to be moving ahead of Arizona for their top man. The Jaguars, Browns, Jets, and Broncos all have needs on their offensive line that could be addressed early. Perhaps a second-round pick and a 2021 mid-rounder will be enough for one team to move into the top-10. Other franchises could be greedy and ask for a first-round pick next season. 

    The same could be said with the wide receivers. Depending on who you ask, Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb or Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy or Henry Ruggs could be considered WR1. Lamb has the most reliable hands, and Jeudy is the smoothest route-runner. Ruggs does it all, but also have the speed factor on his side to boost his stock. 

    The Jets, Raiders, 49ers, and Broncos are teams with needs at pass catcher – with Denver looking to be the odd man out. Many have mocked Ruggs to become the compliment player to Courtland Sutton out in the Mile High city. As it stands now, Denver could have to jump Las Vegas to grab their guy or settle for a lesser, but still talented receiver such as Baylor’s Denzel Mims. 

    Once the first receiver goes, expect teams to be calling to grab their next option before its too late. 

    Trading out? 

    The trades that won’t be talked about enough are the ones from teams that exit the first round. An overconfident team who feels they are a piece away could trade back into the first to grab their second guy, while perhaps a roster without a first-round selection could package and pair of mid-rounders to fix their only flaw. 

    It’s evident teams like Seattle and New England will listen to offers to add quantity over quality. Organizations like the Colts or Texans could be looking to move up with the intent to add a pass-catcher or future quarterback in names like Clemson’s Tee Higgins or Utah State’s Jordan Love. The power will sit in the hands of the GMs that are looking for a way out. Depending on how desperate a team is, that could boost their stock. 

    Later first-rounders won’t be able to haul in a future first-round selection, but they could end another team’s draft night by taking away picks of the future. Depending on the run from the top, cornerback will be a need many teams hope to address. Outside of Ohio State’s Jeffrey Okudah, every player at the position could go as high as 16 or fall out of the first round.

    For teams needing to build upon draft picks like New Orleans and Kansas City (both have five picks), depth for the future is more important. Both are playoff contenders and have few needs for the short-term plan. It’s the long-term game they will need to prep. The 24 and 32 spots will have a plethora of talent that defensive-needy teams will look to move up for.

    The asking price won’t come cheap, but it’ll be easier to move back into the first than into the top-10. A mid-round pick plus perhaps two later round selections would be enough for many who view day three picks as gems for their future.

    Ultimately, mock drafts are fun, but you can’t expect every team to remain in the spot they’re at to select their man. The more a player can bring to the table, the higher the asking price will be.

    The start of one train of events leads to another… and another… and, well, you get the idea. All it takes is one domino to fall before the blueprint comes crumbling down. If we can guarantee one thing for this year’s draft, it is that there’s going to be fireworks. 

    Cole Thompson is a lead NFL writer for PFN. You can follow him on Twitter @MrColeThompson and follow PFN @PFN365.

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