Now that Week 1 is mostly in the books, it’s time to reflect. While every Sunday comes down to wins and losses, examining underlying team and player metrics can help us better understand — and predict — what’s likely to happen in future NFL weeks.
With that in mind, let’s run through seven of the most surprising stats from the first week of the 2024 NFL campaign. Some numbers might paint clubs and players more positively, while others may be more discouraging.
Let’s start with one of those disappointing figures by heading to the AFC West, where a head coach started the season on the wrong foot.
Most Surprising Stats From Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season
Antonio Pierce’s Bad Decision | -8.5% Win Probability
Just when you thought the NFL’s analytics movement had taken a significant step forward, Antonio Pierce had to drag us back to football’s dark ages with an astounding fourth-down decision in the Raiders’ Week 1 loss to the Chargers.
Las Vegas was trailing, 16-10, with 7:15 remaining in the fourth quarter when Pierce — faced with a 4th-and-1 from Los Angeles’ 43-yard line — inexplicably opted to punt instead of going for a first down.
It was an almost unprecedented decision in the modern NFL. Per ESPN, the Raiders were the first team to punt in opposing territory while trailing by one score in the fourth quarter on 4th-and-1 since 2016.
Pierce cost Vegas 8.5% win probability by punting, according to Ben Baldwin’s model. Any fourth-down attempt that adds at least 2% win probability is generally considered a must-go situation. The Surrender Index ranked the Raiders’ punt in the 99.9th percentile of all “cowardly” punts since 1999.
Pierce is an inexperienced head coach, but he’s not solely to blame. Las Vegas’ front office should have prepared Pierce with analytics and game management preparations.
However, first-year Raiders general manager Tom Telesco was one of the NFL’s least analytically friendly executives during his time with the Chargers, while Vegas has never been considered a forward-thinking franchise.
Keenan Allen’s Target Share | 42.3%
While his final Sunday stat line didn’t look very impressive, Keenan Allen dominated looks from rookie QB Caleb Williams in their joint Bears debut.
According to TruMedia, Allen’s 42.3% target share led the NFL in Week 1. He ran 26 routes and earned 11 targets but turned those looks into just four catches for 29 yards.
Clearly, Chicago acquired Allen this offseason hoping to make him a focal point of their offense from the jump, making his Week 1 injury all the more concerning.
Allen limped off the field in the fourth quarter of the Bears’ Week 1 comeback win over the Titans, entered the medical tent, and never returned to Sunday’s game. Fellow wide receiver Rome Odunze was also injured yesterday and underwent an MRI on Monday.
Anthony Richardson’s Air Yards | 16.4 Air Yards Per Attempt
The defining image from Week 1’s games might not have involved a winning team.
Anthony Richardson couldn’t guide the Colts to a victory over the Texans on Sunday, but he made just about everyone watching jump out of their seats. Richardson’s first-quarter deep ball to wide receiver Alec Piece traveled nearly 70 yards in the air and resulted in a 60-yard touchdown.
“I don’t think I’ve seen a throw like that,” Indy head coach Shane Steichen said. “That’s just physical ability, launching that ball down the field. There’s not many guys that can do that.”
Unreal athleticism from Anthony Richardson.
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Clearly, launching — and completing — a throw like that was going to affect Richardson’s day-end stats. So, let’s have a little fun with the numbers.
Per TruMedia, Richardson is one of just 12 quarterbacks since 2000 to take at least 20 dropbacks and post at least 16 air yards per attempt.
Before Richardson, the most recent member of that club was Marcus Mariota, who wasn’t exactly known as a deep-ball artist. Still, he matched Richardson’s 16.4 air yards per attempt as the Falcons’ QB in a 2022 win over the Seahawks.
Saquon Barkley’s RB Rushing Share | 96%
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman stepped outside his comfort zone this offseason by giving Barkley a three-year, $37.75 million deal to leave the division-rival Giants. Philadelphia is getting its money’s worth from the star RB — at least through one week.
Barkley took 24 carries for 109 yards and two touchdowns and added a receiving score in the Eagles’ Friday night win over the Packers. The top-line numbers were impressive, but Barkley’s underlying usage was just as noteworthy.
Barkley earned 96% of Philadelphia’s rushing attempts in Week 1. That was the highest total for an Eagles running back since Week of the 2021 campaign, per JJ Zachiarson of Late Round QB. In that 2021 game, Miles Sanders had just nine carries, compared to Barkley’s 24.
With Barkley as their prized free agent acquisition, the Eagles are moving past their RB-by-committee days.
Ja’Marr Chase’s Slot Rate | 37.5%
The Bengals’ relationship with superstar WR Ja’Marr Chase is probably at an all-time nadir. Chase and fellow Cincinnati pass catcher were seemingly the only two NFL wideouts who wanted extensions this offseason but failed to receive them.
Chase’s negotiations with the Bengals went right down to the wire; at times, it was unclear whether he’d suit up for Week 1. He ultimately played in Cincinnati’s surprising loss to the Patriots but saw just 40 offensive snaps (83%).
The Bengals, who might be searching for any silver lining right now, did make good on their offseason promise to move Chase around in their offensive formations. Per TruMedia, Chase played was aligned in the slot on 37.5% of his snaps on Sunday. That represented a new career high for Chase and was just the fifth time he’s seen over a 30% slot rate.
Cincinnati may need every trick in the book to beat the Chiefs next week and avoid an 0-2 start. Moving Chase into the slot — and keeping Kansas City’s defensive backs guessing — could be a solid first step.
Derek Carr’s Pressure Rate | 12%
Keeping your quarterback clean is the name of the game for offensive linemen, and the Saints’ beleaguered front five was more than up to the task of holding up against the Panthers on Sunday.
How unbothered was quarterback Derek Carr in Week 1? Since 2021, there have been 1,524 games in which a QB dropped back at least 25 times.
Over the past five seasons, on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field, Derek Carr has a:
Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 8, 2024
According to TruMedia, Carr’s 12% pressure rate on Sunday ranks 18th on that long list of quarterback performances. The NFL average during that span was 33.8%, nearly triple Carr’s rate.
New Orleans’ offensive line didn’t have much trouble against Carolina’s defensive front, allowing Carr to carve up the Panthers’ secondary in a 47-10 blowout. Carr completed 19 of 23 attempts for 200 yards, three touchdowns, and 85.1 QBR.
Cleveland Browns’ Motion Rate | 4.3%
New Browns offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey isn’t calling plays in Cleveland (that’s head coach Kevin Stefanski’s job). Still, Dorsey was expected to bring some of the concepts he utilized during his largely successful run with the Bills to the AFC North.
Pre-snap motion and motion at the snap were supposed to be part of the Browns’ plan to get the most out of quarterback Deshaun Watson in 2024. Moving pass catchers around before and at the snap can help QBs determine coverages or get their playmaker in advantageous matchups.
Cleveland only put a man in motion on 12.4% of its plays in 2023, the second-lowest rate in the NFL and well below the league average (22%).
Nothing much changed on Sunday. According to ESPN’s Daniel Oyefusi, the Browns ranked dead last in the NFL in pre-snap motion (24.3%) and motion at the snap (4.3%) in Week 1.
Watson shoulders most of the blame for his dreadful Sunday showing, but Stefanski and Dorsey could be doing more to put him in better situations to succeed.