For the second year in a row, Denver Broncos WR Tim Patrick went down in training camp with a non-contact lower-body injury. Last year, Patrick tore his ACL. This year, as reported by Adam Schefter, he tore his Achilles. It’s truly devastating and potentially could spell the end of Patrick’s career. As sad as it is to see, we do have to assess the ramifications for fantasy football.
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Fantasy Fallout of Tim Patrick’s Injury
Injuries are undoubtedly the most difficult part of fantasy football to navigate. In addition to their unpredictability and the havoc they inflict on our rosters, these are real people seeing their careers adversely affected by pure bad luck. Before we get to the fantasy impact, I just wanted to remind everyone of that.
Hopefully, Patrick is able to return next season, but he’ll be 30 years old and three years removed from football. Sadly, I’m not optimistic.
Impact of Tim Patrick’s Injury on Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy
Slated to be the Broncos’ WR3, Patrick was going to be an interesting late-round dart throw in 2023 fantasy drafts. His absence doesn’t really impact Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton. Their target shares were always going to be dictated by their performance. Thus, fantasy managers should not expect to see any change in their ranking or ADP because of the unfortunate news.
Impact of Patrick’s Injury on Marvin Mims
The biggest beneficiary of Patrick’s injury has to be the rookie, Marvin Mims. The Broncos drafted Mims based on value, not need. He wasn’t even a lock to be the team’s WR4, but with Patrick gone, everyone below him jumps up a spot.
Plus, the oft-injured KJ Hamler revealed he has a heart condition that will force him to step away from football for the time being. Hamler plans to return to Denver, but it’s unclear if that will be before the season. At this point, fantasy managers should presume Hamler will be a non-factor this season.
All of this presents a massive opportunity for Mims to earn the starting WR3 role. He’s got second-round draft capital and blazing 4.38 speed.
Mims is 21 years old and was quite productive at Oklahoma. He profiles as an outside burner, which is exactly what the Broncos need to complement Jeudy and Sutton.
The 2022 version of Russell Wilson could barely support one fantasy-relevant wide receiver. There’s no way that guy is supporting three. However, if Wilson can rebound with a better team and better coaching, the guy we remember from Seattle certainly can.
Additionally, there’s a nonzero chance Mims simply outplays Sutton or Jeudy (probably not Jeudy, though) and earns a higher target share than expected. It won’t happen right away, but Mims looks like a guy who could really come on strong over the second half of the season.
With Patrick out, Mims goes from a guy only worth drafting in deep leagues to a legitimate late-round option in standard-sized leagues. I moved him up to WR64 after this news.
Impact on Greg Dulcich
Greg Dulcich was never going to be able to earn more than the third-highest target share on the team. Sutton may not have been great last season, but he’s still the starting X receiver, and he and Jeudy will lead the team in targets.
Where Dulcich stands to benefit in the wake of the Patrick injury is now he is more likely to have that third-option role to himself rather than share it with Patrick.
I was already bullish on Dulcich before this news. He’s my target at the position when I wait too long on a tight end. Now, I feel even better about his volume.
How Does Patrick’s Injury Impact Russell Wilson?
For quarterbacks, the more weapons at their disposal, the better. While Wilson still has his top two guys — as well as Dulcich — he certainly would be better off with Patrick than without him.
With that said, Wilson’s fantasy value is more about his own performance than anyone on his supporting cast. Wilson was a bad quarterback last season, but we’ve seen him before play well even without top-end talent at receiver. Sutton, Jeudy, Mims, and Dulcich are more than enough for Wilson to be able to be a QB1 again if his own play returns to form.
I remain skeptical of a bounce-back season for Wilson. Losing Patrick certainly doesn’t compel me to feel any better about him. However, I did not move Wilson in my rankings as a result of this loss. He remains at QB21.