After a disappointing start to the 2025 season, the Houston Texans have clawed their way back into the playoff picture with seven straight wins. Despite the Jacksonville Jaguars already clinching a postseason spot, Houston remained firmly in contention for both a playoff berth and the AFC South title entering Week 17.
What Are the Texans’ Playoff Chances?
The Texans have caught fire at the perfect time. After an uneven 3–5 start, Houston’s loss column has remained untouched for the past seven weeks as the defense continues to carry them despite an underperforming offense, which ranks 24th in PFSN’s Offensive Impact metric.
The Texans have secured a playoff spot after their win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17. According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, they now have a 39.20% chance of winning the AFC South, and a 27.90% chance to finish as the sixth seed in the AFC.
With the Jaguars officially clinching a playoff spot following the Indianapolis Colts’ Week 16 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Houston needed just one more win to secure its own postseason berth. Alternatively, the Texans’ win has eliminated the Colts from playoff contention.
The Colts will face the Jaguars, a matchup that no longer matters for Indianapolis. Ideally, the Texans would like for Indianapolis to also defeat Jacksonville, which would significantly improve Houston’s path to the division title.
2 for 2 for Barnett!
đź“ş : @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/ErWI0A3n9E
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 27, 2025
If the Jaguars drop one of their final two games and the Texans go 2–0 against the Chargers and Colts, Houston would win the division based on a superior divisional record (5–1 vs. Jacksonville’s 4–2). The same logic applies if Jacksonville goes 0–2 and Houston finishes 1–1. The Texans would still take the AFC South crown with either a 5–1 or 4–2 divisional record compared to Jacksonville’s 3–3.
With the Denver Broncos already sitting at 13 wins, Houston is no longer in contention for the AFC’s top seed.
Houston closes the regular season against the Colts, and a playoff spot is already secured. To make a serious push for the division title, the Texans will need the Jaguars to stumble in one of their remaining games.
With momentum firmly on their side, Houston is well-positioned to make a strong postseason run. While their Super Bowl odds currently sit at around 6.70%, the Texans’ elite defense makes them a dangerous matchup for any opponent once January arrives.
Even if the Texans do not win the division, finishing with a better record will put them in a position to face an inferior opponent in the Wild Card Round.
