The Houston Texans secured a massive Week 12 win over the Buffalo Bills, a victory that significantly boosted their playoff hopes. But in an AFC South race featuring the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston will need to stack more wins to secure a postseason spot.
As the Texans prepared for a critical Week 13 matchup against the Colts, here’s a look at where their current playoff chances stand.
What Are the Texans’ Playoff Chances?
Entering their Week 13 matchup against the Colts, the Houston Texans held a 56.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 15.2% chance of winning the AFC South, according to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor.
The Texans defeated the Colts 20-16, and they now have a 67.5% chance of making the playoffs. Houston’s chances of winning the division are now at 23.5%.
Should they ultimately reach the playoffs, the Texans would become the first team to do so after starting 0–3 since the NFL expanded to a 17-game schedule, and just the seventh team in league history to overcome such a start.
The Texans improved to 6–5 after last week’s win over Buffalo, continuing a remarkable turnaround in which they’ve gone 6–2 since an 0–3 start. Houston had Davis Mills start at quarterback for a third straight game after starter C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion. Mills finished the game by going 16-of-30 passing for 153 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
According to the PFSN NFL QB Impact metrics, Mills has an Impact Score (QBi) of 63.7 with a D grade, ranking 35th in the league. For Stroud, his Impact Score is 75.1 with a C grade, and he ranks 20th in the league. He was cleared to return from a concussion and will return under center for the road game against the Colts.
The AFC playoff race is crowded, with 10 realistic contenders vying for the seven available spots. Houston currently sits just outside the bracket alongside Kansas City and Pittsburgh, while surprise teams like New England and Denver have shaken up the conference picture.
However, the Texans still very much control their own destiny. A win over the Colts on Sunday has made their path considerably easier. Their remaining schedule includes matchups against the Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, and Colts.